Predict: How many paid downloads will get Super Mario Run get?

[fleischr]

vivster said:
Soooooo, you don't know the difference between free downloads and paid downloads?

It'll be lucky to get 300m free downloads.

I made a clear distinction on lifetime numbers.

Lifetime: 1 billion + total downloads, 300 million of which will be paid. The rest all free.

I think the attach rate of paid downloads at launch will be higher - maybe in the realm of 50-60% starting out.

If it doesn't pass 300m free downloads lifetime, I may eat my hat.