Predict: How many paid downloads will get Super Mario Run get?

[fleischr]

vivster said:

fleischr said:

You forget that at one point earlier this year, Pokemon Go made up more than half of all in-app transactions. https://techcrunch.com/2016/07/29/pokemon-gos-paying-user-base-has-reached-a-plateau/

Of course, that kind of strength doesn't last with any title forever - but it lends itself well to the idea that Nintendo can achieve greater paying attach rates with their top-tier IP for at least a short duration of time.

Keep in mind this is a free app currently with only one major in-app purchase, and that it's pretty meaningful one in comparison to what you normally get with many other f2p games.

This is also lifetime numbers I'm predicting here... So I'm not saying it hits 300 million paid downloads it's first year, but over several years on the app store it will.

That's still not how math works. Look at LTD numbers of any game and compare it with first year sales. You will find they're very similar. By a simlar rate SMR would have to sell at least 200m copies in its first year. This game does not exist in a bubble. It has to compete against every other game on the store and a lot of them are free or have a way smaller entry fee.

The game cannot simply succeed because of brand alone. Pokemon couldn't do it either. Pokemon was heavily supported by the social aspect which brought players in who would've otherwise have not given a single shit about a pokemon game.

And now you come along saying that a game with higher entry fee, no social draw and no longevity whatsoever will easily beat a once in a lifetime blockbuster? Be realistic here.

It kind of is in it's own bubble though. It absolutely competes on 'unfair' terms with everything else out there.

Not only does have the longest pre-release marketing of any App Store game - there's a good chance it'll be promoted in the long haul. Why? Because it easily brings in more revenue/profit per sale than anything else Apple (or Google) has to promote.

To them it's not just a single release - but a chance to reverse the race to the bottom mobile sales model that's had app store revenues stagnate in real terms.

I think there's a much bigger social hook to this than you might realize. It's not the same as Pokemon Go - but titles like Temple Run or Angry Birds never needed a 'social' hook to get several million downloads, did they?