Predict: How many paid downloads will get Super Mario Run get?

[vivster]

fleischr said:

vivster said:
Soooooo, you don't know the difference between free downloads and paid downloads?

It'll be lucky to get 300m free downloads.

I made a clear distinction on lifetime numbers.

Lifetime: 1 billion + total downloads, 300 million of which will be paid. The rest all free.

I think the attach rate of paid downloads at launch will be higher - maybe in the realm of 50-60% starting out.

If it doesn't pass 300m free downloads lifetime, I may eat my hat. 

Name a single f2p game with a paying customer rate that's even close to 10%. Your prediction has zero basis in reality.

 

How you think it will be even more popular than Pokemon Go is beyond me. That only shows that you have absolutely no idea why Pokemon Go was so popular in the first place.