Predict: How many paid downloads will get Super Mario Run get?

[vivster]

fleischr said:

vivster said:

Name a single f2p game with a paying customer rate that's even close to 10%. Your prediction has zero basis in reality 

You forget that at one point earlier this year, Pokemon Go made up more than half of all in-app transactions. https://techcrunch.com/2016/07/29/pokemon-gos-paying-user-base-has-reached-a-plateau/

Of course, that kind of strength doesn't last with any title forever - but it lends itself well to the idea that Nintendo can achieve greater paying attach rates with their top-tier IP for at least a short duration of time.

Keep in mind this is a free app currently with only one major in-app purchase, and that it's pretty meaningful one in comparison to what you normally get with many other f2p games.

This is also lifetime numbers I'm predicting here... So I'm not saying it hits 300 million paid downloads it's first year, but over several years on the app store it will.

That's still not how math works. Look at LTD numbers of any game and compare it with first year sales. You will find they're very similar. By a simlar rate SMR would have to sell at least 200m copies in its first year. This game does not exist in a bubble. It has to compete against every other game on the store and a lot of them are free or have a way smaller entry fee.

The game cannot simply succeed because of brand alone. Pokemon couldn't do it either. Pokemon was heavily supported by the social aspect which brought players in who would've otherwise have not given a single shit about a pokemon game.

And now you come along saying that a game with higher entry fee, no social draw and no longevity whatsoever will easily beat a once in a lifetime blockbuster? Be realistic here.