| vivster said: Name a single f2p game with a paying customer rate that's even close to 10%. Your prediction has zero basis in reality |
I agree, 10% or less paying customers of the total downloaders would also be my guess. Let's have a look at the similar mobile Rayman games.
- Rayman Fiesta Run for $3 (sometimes reduced to $2 or $1): 0.1m - 0.5m downloads, 32k user ratings
- Rayman Jungle Run for $3 (was reduced to $0.10 one time): 1m - 5m downloads, 64k user ratings
- Rayman Adventures for $0 (free2play): 10m - 50m downloads, 338k user ratings
- https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.ubisoft.rayman.fiestarun
- https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.pastagames.ro1mobile
- https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.ubisoft.raymanadventures
The rating average on Google Play of these 3 games shows similar satisfaction of the users: quite good 4.3 - 4.5 stars out of 5. MetaScore shows much lower ratings for Rayman Adventures, but that can be explained by pissed reviewers punishing the in-app-purchase model.
Much more people downloaded and rated Rayman Adventures... why not try it when it is free? Only a fraction of these will have invested money into the game, even if they liked the part they played.
Of course Super Mario Run will have much higher downloads and sales than Rayman... because it is Nintendo and Mario and all the hype and the PR (Apple keynote, preorder spotlight for weeks in the AppStore, Jimmy Fallon, TV-Spots...).
But I doubt that more than 10% of the people who try it will also buy it, especially for $10. My guess would be 300m downloads, 20m - 30m sales.
I personally really like all the Rayman games above and will probably also buy SMR (since I have no problem with paying for premium apps), but perhaps I wait for the first 50%-sale.
