Maybe this was the reason that Kojima has been fired...

so sony payed 80million for the exculsive marketing rights?

they need to sell over 2.5 million day one to make back the development costs
marketing budget not even included

Pretty much confirms what some Konami employee said about Kojima running wild with the budget. It won't make a profit day one that's for sure. I wonder how much the budget for Silent Hills was going to be; the PT demo was high quality, and they were getting Daryl as the main character. 

If Komani insisted on a smaller budget and Kojima has a history of going against management, that would be decent reasons for termination.

I have seen people fired for less myself.

That's not that much. Game will have no issue being profitable unless Konami decides to spend another 80 million in marketing

Konami will get more than 30 per sale. And especially digital sales they get a very large percentage.

If they'd release a prologue version a head of time they could recoup some of.... Oh wait.

Is MGSV that much a strong seller to profit day one?

Anyway, being delayed for five years is too much and with such big budget sans the promotion budget could really kill a company if this project flops and let's not forget about the opportunity cost that could've been by funding other games or even sequels.

Konami could profit $50 M on this game but they could also have saved half of the production budget too.

And no. Devs need to budget their games and release faster. We could've gotten a New Suikoden, Castlevania etc. but Konami had really bad management problems that I could see why they tightened up their belts around the people working for them to get things done faster.

Obviously I am only guesstimating. But for retail sales in the US, it'd be very surprising if they got much more than $30.

And outside of the US most countries don't charge full price for a game, you see discounting from day one (which becomes increasingly dramatic very quickly).

I don't think a $30 average per sale for those first couple of weeks is unrealistic.

Breaking even or making small profit would be a terrible business. $80 million bet for MGSV is seriously crazy compared to those low budget mobile games. Kojima is nothing to look up to as a producer if he really was causing the budget ballooning. MGSV could have single handedly buried new Castlevania or Suikoden games since that extra budget had to be taken from somewhere else.

And then there is the marketing budget, which could have also ballooned. Traditional japanese gaming industry has not been doing too well but Konami have straight up cornered themselves.