But you said it could meet your prediction even without a price drop.  What fun/good games will impact hardware sales disproportionately in 2015?  What will drive significantly more knowledge of the Wii U in 2015?  Your arguments could have easily been made a year ago, and they didn't result in a massive surge in sales last year.  Looking at the prediction thread for 2014, only 3 people undershot the Wii U, all by less than 1m.  Dozens overshot it, many by multiple millions.  There is a history on this site of people basing predictions, especially Wii U predictions, on their emotions rather than the sales numbers.  This seems like one of those times.

"Only double" the Wii u in 2014 is more than the Gamecube ever did.  Considering it is still tracking far behind that system, I'm not sure why that is so achievable.  The only hard numbers we have so far is Japan, and that is showing the Wii U down YoY.  Why isn't it benefitting from this casual effect?  Will it turn around or is your prediction based on other regions picking up the slack?

Some of the big guns?  The top 12 games on the Wii have all seen incarnations on the Wii U (depending on how you want to count Wii Play).  Only Mario Party and Zelda are left in the top 17.  MP has seen massive decline after 8, and Zelda is pretty far from NSMB/MK/Smash in sales potential.

What game or not yet revealed thing do you think could possibly result in 21 million sales for the Wii U in 2016?  That would put it at close to Nintendo's second best annual sales for a home console in their history.

Also have no clue how you expect 19+ million for the 3DS this year.

If WiiU gets a pricecut then yes, otherwise it will be flat or a little down. The redigned 3DS will keep it flat YoY but WiiU needs a boost for it not to drop of.

I have spilt the text up.. and will answer them the best  and as simple as i can.. And then you just have to live with me "seeing" it that way.. Until proven wrong or right :)

1. It will (as i see it) mostly be MK8 and Smash.. But also games like Splatoon and Mariomaker could be big.. Zelda could also be big.. starfox.. X.. and some other.. mayby.. It's the the total "value" (games, price, experinces, and usefullness) 

2. MK8 and Smash are again some of the main reasons.. (and other of the 2015 game line up) amiibo will do a litle to.. but the point is.. it's all.. It's all the games and the gamepad.. Most casual gamers knows that there are new consoles on the marked.. but they have not yet decided or wanted to buy one. (you are not aguing that WiiU in 8-9 month will be.. 1000% more "value" for new buyers.. than before MK8 came..?)

3. The more casual gamer will (at some point) buy a 8 gen console.. Again.. why are you saing that they did'nt last year.. Yes i know that.. and they did'nt get a Ps4 or One either.. They are still buying an 8 gen console (the ones end up buy one..:)

4. Sony sold more than 14 mill consoles this year.. And you think half of that is "not achievable".. fine.. I do

5. Japan loves handheld.. The need more games..  And yes offcourse I talk about worldwide sales..  but I do see japan as the worst casual marked for a home console.

6. I don't see it that way at all.. Only few "true WiiU sellers out now.. MK8.. Smash.. Mario.. There will be 4-6 more in 2015.. (imo)

7. Yes hate MP.. :) and zelda.. that you don't know.. We have to see that.. There are some pretty big "zeldaish" games.. and who knows what Nintendo will get out of the more power and HD grafic.. (but I give you.. I would be very suprised if it sold better than MK8 and Smash)

8. They are not really relevant for this tread.. (and like i said.. not even sure it will happen) But offcourse.. A redesigned WiiU/Upad.. combined with Mariomaker becomming the new "braintraining" and Splatoon is insanely fun and totally dominating all kindergardens.. :)  could do some.. rest you have to dream of.. but remember.. nobody saw wii-fit come

9. That was mayby to high.. did i said that.. or did i said combined Nintendo.. I think.. But Okay.. that do sound a bit high.. i will change that to i think they will do much better than 2014.. :)

Could happen with the New 3DS and if Wii U gets a much needed decent price cut or redesign.

Wii U is going to be Nintendo's worst selling home console. Likely by a country mile. Nothing in 2015 is changing that.

All three home consoles will see price cuts in 2015 too. 

The point where you tell me what is wrong with my prediction is where?...I don't see it.

If we ignore that 3DS is on a downwards spiral, maybe.

1/2. Again, I just don't see why you think MK and Smash will make such a larger impact in 2015 than they did in 2014.  They were there in December, along with the gamepad, Amiibos, and the rest of the library.  Yet it only resulted in a modest increase YoY in the US and a substantial decrease in Japan.  Even if I thought that there was 1000% more value in September 2015 as there was in May 2014, how does that result in more than double sales in 2015?  How much more value do you think there was on September 2014 versus May 2013?  Now how big of an impact was there on annual sales worldwide?

3.  Just because they will buy a console (though I'd argue a huge percentage of casual Wii owners won't buy any console) doesn't mean they will buy one in 2015 just because.  Can you show me a console that doubled its sales based on games released the year before and no price cut?

4. The number of PS4s sold does not make your Wii U prediction any more reasonable.  Sony sold 20 million PS2s in a year and you don't think the Gamecube selling a third of that is achievable?  Well it wasn't.

5. So you don't think Japan will be up YoY?  If they are down by 25% this year, that will mean the rest of the world will need to be up 127% in order to be up 100% overall.  That also means if Wii U's January NPD is less than 111k, Europe/the rest of the year will need to be even higher than 127% up.  And so on and so on.

6. What are these 4-6 "true Wii U sellers" that are on par with Mario Kart, Smash, and Mario?  Also they are presumable bigger than Donkey Kong, Pikmin, Hyrule Warriors, Nintendo Land, Wii Party, Wind Waker, etc since those didn't make the cut.

9.  You said both.  That Wii U and 3DS would be greater than 2x 2014, and then you went on to say you believe both the Wii U and 3DS could double their 2014 numbers.

Sadly the outcome of this is entirely based in how well the 3DS holds with new 3DS. WiiU probably will sell better this year, but in no way enough to offset a drop in 3DS-sales. So if 3DS is stable it is possible, otherwise not.

almost matching ps4 sales week by week this past holiday, more often than not outselling the xbox one, even tho a new version was coming in a few weeks = downward spiral.

got it.