Given VGC's track record with PS4, I'd say the console is already above 15M

Awakening? No, not really. If I am wrong and it has sold a ton, I will only be happy. I don´t  take pleasure in the lower sales, I want them all to sell a bucket load so the industry can continue to grow.

You have to agree that thinking it has only sold 13m by now is irrational. It had sold over 10m by August 9 so you think that in almost 3.5 months with Destiny white bundle, FIFA and big November sales it hasn't sold 3m more? It would only need to average 850k/month to be at 13m+ by now...In September alone it did ~535k in the US only so easily 1m+ globally that month meaning that it would need to average less than 800k/month for the rest of this time period...

I have used the US as a benchmark for my guesswork. I guessed PS4 were around 10.5M at the end of august. If the US would account for about 45% of their total sales, this would put september sales at around 1,2M worldwide. In august, they sold only 300k in ths US, giving a number of about 670k world wide. They started of november in big style so my guess is about 800k for the first two weeks. This gives a total of 10.5+1.2+0.67+0.8= 13.17M.

I may be totally off (and I hope I am) but I would prefer to have a low estimate and be pleasantly surprised than the other way around :). 13.,5M might be more plausible, depending on how august fared.

Let's be honest with ourselves here.  You are purposely lowballing the sales of the PS4 so in your mind the XBO has a shot to catch up.  Why else even suggest that VGC has it overtracked, when overall it has always been undertracked here, while proclaiming XBO is most likely spot on (which conveniently puts the gap at less than 2.5M 5.5M.)

Now, don't get me wrong.  It's completely fine that you are rooting for the XBO if that's the console you prefer.  However, let's be geniune about the situation.  It is (almost) entirely impossible for the PS4 to only be at 13M, and you know it.  Sales would have had to slow down to a crawl, which is not happening, especially given the holidays.

Well, I was sure before this generation started that X1 would end up in 2nd place behind PS4, so there goes that theory :). I must say I thought the PS4 shipments at the end of september were a bit lower than I would have expected and the X1 announcment of "almost 10M" (whatever that means :)) was also a bit surprising. MS do have a tendeny to overship though, so that might explain some of it. And where did you get the gap of 2.5M?

Why would the US account for 45%? It accounted for less than 39% of the 10m totals. Also, FIFA is huge outside the US which would skew sales in that direction (Destiny was big everywhere) in Sept and especially October.

But 670k in October is really something lol. No chance. As a testament to the insane FIFA+Destiny boost, PS4 sold 460k in Germany alone from July to mid October (undertracked on VGC still btw) while "only" selling 540k before that time (Nov '13 - June '14).

Honestly, math fail.  Idk why, but I was thinking 10M for PS4 when I looked at the XBO's 7.6M.  Still, that would make it less than 5.5M, when it's probably more like VGC's ~7M.

Just repeating myself from other threads..., but I feel the responsability to illuminate the people living in the darkness of ignorance....

- 15 m sold as of today, pre Black Friday Week

- More than 1 m worldwide BF week

- 16+ m sold at Playstation Experience

- 4m more in December worldwide

- 20+ m sold before 2015

I was going to explain every point but...., if anybody just spent some time thinking and use Wii 2007 as a comparison (they are basically selling at the same rate in their respective timeframes, PS4 even surpassing Wii) will come to the same conclusion.

And that's all it is...belief

Belief that PS4 sales have completely halted...

Belief that VGC tracks shipments.

Belief that VGC is overtracking the PS4 in the holiday period, the best selling period for any console, after months of consecutive undertracking in drought months

Nobody was ever talking shipments. Believe what you want, but that is meaningless banter when we are discussing sales and projections of sales.