PS4 will probably get to around 16 Million by 1 January 2015

[Ninsect]

Puppyroach said:

Ninsect said:

Puppyroach said:

Awakening? No, not really. If I am wrong and it has sold a ton, I will only be happy. I don´t  take pleasure in the lower sales, I want them all to sell a bucket load so the industry can continue to grow.

You have to agree that thinking it has only sold 13m by now is irrational. It had sold over 10m by August 9 so you think that in almost 3.5 months with Destiny white bundle, FIFA and big November sales it hasn't sold 3m more? It would only need to average 850k/month to be at 13m+ by now...In September alone it did ~535k in the US only so easily 1m+ globally that month meaning that it would need to average less than 800k/month for the rest of this time period...

I have used the US as a benchmark for my guesswork. I guessed PS4 were around 10.5M at the end of august. If the US would account for about 45% of their total sales, this would put september sales at around 1,2M worldwide. In august, they sold only 300k in ths US, giving a number of about 670k world wide. They started of november in big style so my guess is about 800k for the first two weeks. This gives a total of 10.5+1.2+0.67+0.8= 13.17M.

I may be totally off (and I hope I am) but I would prefer to have a low estimate and be pleasantly surprised than the other way around :). 13.,5M might be more plausible, depending on how august fared.

Why would the US account for 45%? It accounted for less than 39% of the 10m totals. Also, FIFA is huge outside the US which would skew sales in that direction (Destiny was big everywhere) in Sept and especially October.

But 670k in October is really something lol. No chance. As a testament to the insane FIFA+Destiny boost, PS4 sold 460k in Germany alone from July to mid October (undertracked on VGC still btw) while "only" selling 540k before that time (Nov '13 - June '14).