Too hard to guess accurately. For the month WW I'll say 320k. It's exciting though, because that's when it's sort of do or die. No Christmas bump. It's up to the software to maintain the momentum from there on out.
190k
More than xbox one hopefully.
If not I'm gonna have to eat crow on my "xbox is doomed bandwagon" thread.
I reckon it'll be roughly >= last January, so I'll guess 280-300k.
But this is based on hopes and dreams, with no science whatsoever.
I do, however, think it'll beat the Xbox One and maybe PS4 (combination of supply and early adopters having already early adopted).
Aielyn said:
No system has ever been up 300% YOY in January? Maybe. But in other months, it has certainly happened. June 2007 to June 2008, PS3 saw an increase in the US from 100k to nearly 360k. The DS in the US saw sales of around 140-190k each year in January for 2005-2007... and then jumped to 460k in January 2008. So it's certainly not unheard of for sudden and dramatic changes in numbers like that. As for November vs January, we turn to the PS3's second holidays in the US, where, in November 2007, it sold 367k, and then in January 2008, it sold 296k - certainly in the same ballpark. Indeed, it's a drop of about 20%. 20% less than the Wii U's november according to NPD places it at roughly 180k. Given that I'm treating "America" as including Canada, which adds about 10%, that brings the number up to about 200k. So on both the YOY and November->January measures, my prediction has precedent. As for momentum, here are the numbers for weekly sales changes in the US in the last six weeks of data (not including PS4/XBO, since they're in launch mode, sales will be in decline week-on-week after launch): PS3: +18%, +41%, 0%, +35%, +375%, -69% --> 231% (average of +22%) The Wii U weekly sales numbers have gone up by nearly 500% since the end of October. Of the other platforms, the best seen is 360, with a 280% increase. There can be no doubt that the Wii U has been gaining momentum. |
No, no system's January has ever been on par with the previous November, I have no idea if a console has been up 300% in January YoY, that doesn't sound too difficult if the circumstances permit.
As for the rest of your post, it's the holidays. Even Vita is 'gaining momentum' by your standards. What do you expect WiiU to do be doing, selling the same as it was in June??
160K.
| Seece said: No, no system's January has ever been on par with the previous November, I have no idea if a console has been up 300% in January YoY, that doesn't sound too difficult if the circumstances permit. As for the rest of your post, it's the holidays. Even Vita is 'gaining momentum' by your standards. What do you expect WiiU to do be doing, selling the same as it was in June?? |
Did you actually read my post? Because I gave a specific instance where a system's January was not much lower than the previous November in the US, at least according to VGChartz numbers - PS3, November 2007 and January 2008.
Even if we go with NPD, which had November higher and January lower, the change was only -43%. Meaning, still in the same ballpark.
Besides which, the fact that it hasn't happened before isn't strong evidence that it won't happen now, since there is no precedent for the pattern that the Wii U is following (and no, the Dreamcast is not a precedent, for many reasons).
And if you had bothered to read, you'd see that every console is selling more than it was a month ago; however, no other console is up even 300%, while the Wii U is up 500%. The gain in momentum is seen by comparing it with other consoles.
You want me to demonstrate it another way? In years 2007-2010, the only consoles that came close to this increase in sales were the DS a couple of times, and the Wii in 2010. Remember, this isn't about absolute momentum, but change in momentum. The Wii was struggling through the latter part of 2010, but had a strong Christmas. Indeed, in 2010, the Wii sold better in the corresponding week (week ending 12th of December) than it did in 2009, in the US. In October 2010, the Wii sold just 280k (compared with 630k in 2009)... in November, it sold 1.12 million, compared to 1.2 million in 2009. This was a change in momentum between October and November of that year.
By the way, another noteworthy observation is that New Super Mario Bros Wii released in mid-November 2009 in the US, yet the year-on-year for that month was a decrease of about 31%. But in December, the year-on-year was an increase of more than 40%. The idea that a system-seller should dramatically increase system sales in the month it releases simply doesn't hold water, when you consider the impact NSMB Wii had on Wii sales. (If we use NPD rather than VGChartz, we get a year-on-year decrease for November 2009 of a little over 38%, and then a year-on-year increase for December 2009 of 77%, making it an even more extreme effect).
A typical increase from end-of-October to six weeks later appears to be somewhere around 200-250%. Wii U saw an increase of 498%. That you would dismiss this dramatic difference as "I guess all of the consoles are gaining momentum" is quite clearly an attempt to dismiss a solid argument, rather than addressing it. Why is the Wii U seeing such a large increase? Because of an increase in momentum.
Aielyn said:
Did you actually read my post? Because I gave a specific instance where a system's January was not much lower than the previous November in the US, at least according to VGChartz numbers - PS3, November 2007 and January 2008. Even if we go with NPD, which had November higher and January lower, the change was only -43%. Meaning, still in the same ballpark. Besides which, the fact that it hasn't happened before isn't strong evidence that it won't happen now, since there is no precedent for the pattern that the Wii U is following (and no, the Dreamcast is not a precedent, for many reasons). And if you had bothered to read, you'd see that every console is selling more than it was a month ago; however, no other console is up even 300%, while the Wii U is up 500%. The gain in momentum is seen by comparing it with other consoles. You want me to demonstrate it another way? In years 2007-2010, the only consoles that came close to this increase in sales were the DS a couple of times, and the Wii in 2010. Remember, this isn't about absolute momentum, but change in momentum. The Wii was struggling through the latter part of 2010, but had a strong Christmas. Indeed, in 2010, the Wii sold better in the corresponding week (week ending 12th of December) than it did in 2009, in the US. In October 2010, the Wii sold just 280k (compared with 630k in 2009)... in November, it sold 1.12 million, compared to 1.2 million in 2009. This was a change in momentum between October and November of that year. By the way, another noteworthy observation is that New Super Mario Bros Wii released in mid-November 2009 in the US, yet the year-on-year for that month was a decrease of about 31%. But in December, the year-on-year was an increase of more than 40%. The idea that a system-seller should dramatically increase system sales in the month it releases simply doesn't hold water, when you consider the impact NSMB Wii had on Wii sales. (If we use NPD rather than VGChartz, we get a year-on-year decrease for November 2009 of a little over 38%, and then a year-on-year increase for December 2009 of 77%, making it an even more extreme effect). A typical increase from end-of-October to six weeks later appears to be somewhere around 200-250%. Wii U saw an increase of 498%. That you would dismiss this dramatic difference as "I guess all of the consoles are gaining momentum" is quite clearly an attempt to dismiss a solid argument, rather than addressing it. Why is the Wii U seeing such a large increase? Because of an increase in momentum. |
466K to 269k is not close, it's also an anomoly.
WiiU is up so much because had a very small baseline to start with, this is sales 101. Look at how 360 went up 3750% in Japan one week, omgz the momentums! The whole reasoning is sloppy and weak, nothing suggests WiiU will be up in January in the US or WW. The console is having a terrible holiday in terms of sales and demand/hype is lower now than it was this time last year.
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