Dude...the Wii was a casual phenomenon. You act like its a natural thing. In the gaming industry casual gaming novelties are a hit once in a blue moon. I don't know how you are rationalizing this in your head, but neither Sony nor Microsoft would've sold eighty million consoles without third parties. Nintendo had a gimmick that got non-gamers to play. This is why the industry is shrinking.....because those people are NOT coming back. The Wii U is going to have N64 numbers just you wait. If anyone loses the support of third parties they pay for it. Sega did, Nintendo did in the past and they will pay for it again.

This thread fails to take into account a wide variety of factors. I'm sure many people have thought certain outcomes before a generation started were going to be obvious, but ended up being totally wrong. In fact, I know this happened many times. It definitely happened with the DS, Wii, PS3, 3DS, and I'm guessing that people didn't see the success of the PS1 coming (the extent of it).

 The Wii hit the ground running (couldn't satisfy demand) and momentum kept building three years after because of new casual novelties. The PS3 was not expected to be a runaway hit because of the launch price (hence why MS capitalized). PS3 came back because it became the most affordable console with the highest rated exclusives. The 3DS has the top first party and third party and so did the DS hence why Nintendo has no competition. It all makes sense, trust me. Nintendos handhelds needs to thought of separately from their consoles.

That is entirely subjective. Unless of course by "the games the mass market wants" you mean Halo and Titanfall.

The only 3rd party game Wii U isn't getting this holiday that actually matters is GTAV, and there still hasn't been a 100% confirmation one way or another that it won't eventually get a port, along with the other next gen consoles getting ports. It's getting Watch_Dogs the same as everyone else next year (after being pushed back). It's got Batman, it's got Assassin's Creed, it's got CoD: Ghosts. I suppose you could argue Battlefield 4, but it seems the "mass market" tends to care more about CoD than BF. It certainly isn't getting as many multiplats as it could or should, but it's still got a healthy showing this holiday season, and so long as console sales improve, which they inevitably will, then it will most likely have a healthy showing next holiday season as well.

There is certainly an argument to be made that "if you like _____ type of game", you should get either a Wii U or Xbox One. That is something that you can actually say. But on the other side of your argument, Wii U is $200 cheaper than XB1, comes with a game (or games) in the box, has free online play with no BS membership fees, has 100% backwards compatibility with Wii games and controllers, something neither hte XB1 or PS4 have, and thus you don't have to spend money buying last gen's games all over again through a "cloud" or whatever. The Wii U eShop has an ever growing list of cool looking indie titles, many of which are NOT headed to Xbox One, and in some cases even not to PS4, along with the Virtual Console service (which will increase in value when they start releasing GC and GBA games). All in all, despite it's flaws, despite Nintendo tripping over themselves and dropping the ball in 2013, the Wii U still has a lot going for it, and with more and more quality games coming out for it, yes, I do think that it still has a healthy chance at beating XB1 in lifetime sales this gen.

For all we know, it could explode at some point and become the market leader, surprising everyone. PS4 isn't guaranteed victory before it's even released. No one is guaranteed victory yet. But I am pretty confident that Wii U at least has a strong chance of outselling XB1. We'll all have to see though.

Why would you bother even asking this, or phrasing it thus? Just because a few multiplats are "performing better" according to preview copies for launch, that does not imply that that is going to be the case for the entire generation. There will undoubtedly be multiplat titles that are better on XB1 than PS4, and vice versa. And despite a slight level of graphical disparity, believe it or not, there just might be at least a couple of multiplat titles that are best on Wii U. That is just how things go. Always has been, dating all the way back to at least the 2nd Generation of consoles.

And yes, I have handled the controller. They have kiosks at Best Buy and other places dude. It's not hard to find one. I'm just not a fan. I've always liked the PS controller design, EXCEPT for the d-pad, which I've never liked. But I just don't care for this PS4 controller design with the fairly-pointless little touchpad thrown in the middle. Just my opinion, that's all.

People can and will rationalize almost anything, given proper motivation. As a longtime Nintendo fan, I would be fucking furious if they had tried to pull what Sony is pulling with online play this gen. If I had to pay for online play on Wii U, I very well might not ever bother playing Wii U games online. It's just the principle of the matter, I don't feel like after spending $50+ on a game, that I should have to spend MORE money just to use a feature already on the fucking disc, especially one that has become as commonplace as online modes. I don't mind paying for completely optional DLC, so long as it is just extra content for the game. But I DO mind any kind of BS where they charge you money for shit they already put on the disc. That is absurd, and slap in the customer's face.

I seriously doubt that rockstar work with nintendo platforms. Battlefield 4 is actually a pretty big game. The WII U may be doing decently right now in terms of providing content but how about the future ? If third party games keep bombing on the WII U I see no reason for multiplatform developers to continue porting to the WII U. So I wonder about the future of thrid parties on the WII U. The problem with the WII U outselling the X1 has to do with the fact that no one else other than nintendo fans seem to be buying the consoles. Sure it may have a price advantage and all but it doesn't have a massive enough audience. That's partly due to the fact that alot of users from the WII didn't play much third party games and that nintendo isn't for it's third party games on it's platforms. The WII U is pretty much the antithesis to the WII in every way possible. 

It needs to explode soon or otherwise the momentum is going to drive down like crazy when the PS4 launches. Nintendo made a very important mistake of pricing the console at $350 initally and $300 barebones but don't worry the steambox will likely flop the hardest. 

A network infrastructure and its 24/7 operational costs are not on the disk you buy.

Also, Nintendo would need a network infrastructure to begin with, to charge.

More or less I agree with the OP. Sony basically has this in the bag. 

I think deep down a lot of MS and Nintendo fans will acknowledge a lot of these points too, they're just too proud/stubborn to admit it. I know on the Nintendo board even a lot of ardent Wii U supporters will acknowledge in their quieter moments that they're anticipating a final Wii U tally in the 30-40 million range and even that may be highly optimistic. 

That said, if MS starts to get down in this gen from the get go, I would look for them to start fighting "dirty" by starting to throw around moneyhats to keep certain games off the PS4 for as long as possible. I think Sony will win, but they will have to sweat (and perhaps bleed) for it, this is not going to be a PS2-era style walk in the park for them. 

Your prediction already came true. They freaked out when they saw Sonys preorders in Europe and moneyhatted the shit out of EA. The majority of their launch has been moneyhatting EA. Madden, Fifa andTitanfall....something involved with all three of those titles was moneyhatted.