More or less I agree with the OP. Sony basically has this in the bag.
I think deep down a lot of MS and Nintendo fans will acknowledge a lot of these points too, they're just too proud/stubborn to admit it. I know on the Nintendo board even a lot of ardent Wii U supporters will acknowledge in their quieter moments that they're anticipating a final Wii U tally in the 30-40 million range and even that may be highly optimistic.
That said, if MS starts to get down in this gen from the get go, I would look for them to start fighting "dirty" by starting to throw around moneyhats to keep certain games off the PS4 for as long as possible. I think Sony will win, but they will have to sweat (and perhaps bleed) for it, this is not going to be a PS2-era style walk in the park for them.
