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Forums - Sales Discussion - Goal Post Chartz (data through June 14th, 2014)

Well, you are even more crazy than I am, I started to gather data for the first 100 weeks of the last gen (for my threads about WiiU and Vita), you did it for 3 years! And I even have not yet included europe and japan. That's a lot of work, I appreciate it. If anyone wants to avoid it doing it himself, you can use the data I have extracted so far: http://stuff.mnementh.de/vgchartz/ (Use the free gnumeric to access the files).

For the matter of 3DS against DS: I think DS was first also more successful in Japan, so it explains why it looks comparatively better in the US. If you look on the numbers at the y-axis, you see that 3DS in europe and america is at 8 million, while at 10 million in Japan and DS was at the end of the tracked timeframe under 12 million in the US and at around 17/18 million in Japan. So the DS was already doing better in Japan, the 3DS does the same.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

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Best sales thread I have seen in some time. And since I am too lazy to make a graph myself this is perfect.

TThis really should be very easily available on vgc as it is obvious many sales posters post emotions and have not looked at sales trends. And putting the Wii U graphs on top is perfect considering it is the most interesting data so far without the PS4 and next box.



Some thoughts about WiiU I had with the data recently. I also noticed the adjustment, that increased sales for WiiU for 2012 and decreased it for 2013. That makes the pretty good launch even better and the horrible drop off into 2013 even worse. The numbers are strange: WiiU had a real good launch, it nearly reached Wii-launch-numbers and was clearly better than the launch of Ps3, XBOX360 and Vita. I was not expecting that at the moment, I was expecting WiiU to sell half of what the Wii did. So my hopes were up at the launch-numbers. Than the drop-off in 2013. It fell from much higher launch-number than PS3 and X360 to much lower weekly sales than the two. That was unexpected for me too, and gives me now bad feelings about WiiUs future.
What can it mean? I have two theories:
1) It was bought at launch from core-gamers in expectations of the games already announced at launch or for games expected from Nintendo (Zelda, 3D Mario, Metroid). As even core-gamers usually buy the system at the release of the games they want, this would point to a really small customer-base of core-core-gamers and die hard Nintendo-fans. That would be a real bad sign for future sales. That also means, the sales will only moderatly increase on the release of MH and other Q1/Q2-titles (as many bought it already in expectation of the games known at launch, hence the good launch-numbers). But sales will not get further increases, as long as not other big names are released.
OR
2) The high numbers were not launch-related but because of the holidays. That would point to non-core-gamers and would be generally a good sign for future sales. The sales are bad now, because it has nearly no games with casual appeal and was bought in that case for Just Dance 4 on the holidays. That would mean we could expect increasing sales on WiiFitU, Just Dance 5 and the next holidays.

I have no idea which of the two it is (or maybe a combination of the two), but that is what I make of the numbers.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Mnementh said:
Some thoughts about WiiU I had with the data recently. I also noticed the adjustment, that increased sales for WiiU for 2012 and decreased it for 2013. That makes the pretty good launch even better and the horrible drop off into 2013 even worse. The numbers are strange: WiiU had a real good launch, it nearly reached Wii-launch-numbers and was clearly better than the launch of Ps3, XBOX360 and Vita. I was not expecting that at the moment, I was expecting WiiU to sell half of what the Wii did. So my hopes were up at the launch-numbers. Than the drop-off in 2013. It fell from much higher launch-number than PS3 and X360 to much lower weekly sales than the two. That was unexpected for me too, and gives me now bad feelings about WiiUs future.
What can it mean? I have two theories:
1) It was bought at launch from core-gamers in expectations of the games already announced at launch or for games expected from Nintendo (Zelda, 3D Mario, Metroid). As even core-gamers usually buy the system at the release of the games they want, this would point to a really small customer-base of core-core-gamers and die hard Nintendo-fans. That would be a real bad sign for future sales. That also means, the sales will only moderatly increase on the release of MH and other Q1/Q2-titles (as many bought it already in expectation of the games known at launch, hence the good launch-numbers). But sales will not get further increases, as long as not other big names are released.
OR
2) The high numbers were not launch-related but because of the holidays. That would point to non-core-gamers and would be generally a good sign for future sales. The sales are bad now, because it has nearly no games with casual appeal and was bought in that case for Just Dance 4 on the holidays. That would mean we could expect increasing sales on WiiFitU, Just Dance 5 and the next holidays.

I have no idea which of the two it is (or maybe a combination of the two), but that is what I make of the numbers.

i wish i had real data for it but as i understand it the gamecube had similar sales pattern in that it had a really good launch and then sales dropped off very quickly.  i've never seen full data for this just restating what i've heard.  i think of the big three nintendo has some of the most loyal fans.  they've been around a lot longer and with nintendo it's not that hard to buy on "faith" because announced or not we all know wiiU will get a mario kart, a smash bros, a zelda, ect.

anyways, it will be interesting to see what happens come march.  will games turn things around or is that not possible as wiiU has a wrong "underlying philosophy of a console" as rol stated.  

actually, we might get a glimce come tomorrow.  will ps4 be a "beast" as eurphoria and mugen claim or a marigin increase as superchunk claims.  i kind of feel like a lot of people, like myself, just want to make an informed decision.  holding out on wiiU for 3 months is easy but if ps4 is a disappointment i could see many hold out not holding out any longer.



RolStoppable said:
Salnax said:
pezus said:
WiiU is really flatlining compared to Wii, isn't it?

Terribly so. I guess it's because of all those big Q1 Wii games.

No, I'm actually serious. Looking back, we had Wii Play, WarioWare, and Sonic in January and February for the Wii. Wii Play was a great way into getting people to keep playing their system for another month or two, and sold tens of millions of copies. And those other two games were both sales successes.

It has much more to do with the Wii being an awesome system, because it wasn't a continuation of the GameCube direction which was rejected by the market. The Wii U, however, is a successor to the GC.

The Wii was great Nintendo, going against the industry. The Wii U is lame Nintendo, obeying to the industry. On one hand you have a system that was selling out for a long time. On the other hand you have a system that is barely selling at all.

Games cannot really change the underlying philosophy of a console. The Wii and Wii U are like night and day, so getting this thing back on track will cost Nintendo a fortune. Even then, it's by no means guaranteed that we'll ever see a turnaround. On the plus side, the Wii U has some things going for it that the GC didn't have (headstart, more room for price cuts, broader portfolio of Nintendo games), but how big of a difference these things really make we'll have to see. A lot will also depend on how competently Sony and Microsoft will handle their eighth generation systems.


Bolded; I wish more people could understand this. This is the behemoth weakness of the Wii U and the Vita and the cause of their poor sales.

OT: This is some incredible work, OP! Good job!

Interesting to see the 3DS lag behind globally, almost as if it isn't destined to sell nearly as much as the DS and the market is moving faster and other devices are diverting customers from the handheld market in general (The combined 220 million or so handheld installed base from the PSP/DS will stand head and shoulders and a really tall hat above the 3DS/Vita combo). If only I could remember who said that this would happen and is happening right now...



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kitler53 said:
Mnementh said:
Some thoughts about WiiU I had with the data recently. I also noticed the adjustment, that increased sales for WiiU for 2012 and decreased it for 2013. That makes the pretty good launch even better and the horrible drop off into 2013 even worse. The numbers are strange: WiiU had a real good launch, it nearly reached Wii-launch-numbers and was clearly better than the launch of Ps3, XBOX360 and Vita. I was not expecting that at the moment, I was expecting WiiU to sell half of what the Wii did. So my hopes were up at the launch-numbers. Than the drop-off in 2013. It fell from much higher launch-number than PS3 and X360 to much lower weekly sales than the two. That was unexpected for me too, and gives me now bad feelings about WiiUs future.
What can it mean? I have two theories:
1) It was bought at launch from core-gamers in expectations of the games already announced at launch or for games expected from Nintendo (Zelda, 3D Mario, Metroid). As even core-gamers usually buy the system at the release of the games they want, this would point to a really small customer-base of core-core-gamers and die hard Nintendo-fans. That would be a real bad sign for future sales. That also means, the sales will only moderatly increase on the release of MH and other Q1/Q2-titles (as many bought it already in expectation of the games known at launch, hence the good launch-numbers). But sales will not get further increases, as long as not other big names are released.
OR
2) The high numbers were not launch-related but because of the holidays. That would point to non-core-gamers and would be generally a good sign for future sales. The sales are bad now, because it has nearly no games with casual appeal and was bought in that case for Just Dance 4 on the holidays. That would mean we could expect increasing sales on WiiFitU, Just Dance 5 and the next holidays.

I have no idea which of the two it is (or maybe a combination of the two), but that is what I make of the numbers.

i wish i had real data for it but as i understand it the gamecube had similar sales pattern in that it had a really good launch and then sales dropped off very quickly.  i've never seen full data for this just restating what i've heard.  i think of the big three nintendo has some of the most loyal fans.  they've been around a lot longer and with nintendo it's not that hard to buy on "faith" because announced or not we all know wiiU will get a mario kart, a smash bros, a zelda, ect.

anyways, it will be interesting to see what happens come march.  will games turn things around or is that not possible as wiiU has a wrong "underlying philosophy of a console" as rol stated.

actually, we might get a glimce come tomorrow.  will ps4 be a "beast" as eurphoria and mugen claim or a marigin increase as superchunk claims.  i kind of feel like a lot of people, like myself, just want to make an informed decision.  holding out on wiiU for 3 months is easy but if ps4 is a disappointment i could see many hold out not holding out any longer.

If it really follows Gamecube-pattern, that would mean theory 1 is the explanation. and that would be a really bad sign for the future of the WiiU.

Yes, the PS4-announcement will interesting to see and might give some more insight on how this gen could go.

And I think it is hard to change the underlying philosophy of a console, but not completely impossible. but it would need a lot of games to change an image, and if they first all sell bad, that means a lot of money is needed. But the WiiU has some design-possibilities built in, that could help. The WiiU supports the Wiimote as Controller. I say Nintendo should create a Familiy-Pack of the WiiU without the Gamepad and with the Wiimote instead. They should also throw in some game with casual appeal, a new Wii Sports would be ideal, but for now Just Dance could work.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

updated from February 9th to April 6th.

Notables:

3DS lost a lot of ground against the DS over this month (1.79M) as it's 2nd holiday and post 2nd holiday explosion really kicked in relative to the 3DS.

wiiU had a pretty noticeable uptick from the previous months. most obvious, imo, in the 3month cumulative charts where you can clearly see the change from loosing ground against the competition to following the competitions curve more similarly.

vita. depressing as over in the west. nice little uptick in japan. better than it's holiday boost, lol.

 

no significant adjustments to data btw.   ~ +1k per console with the adjustments being applied primarily in europe, a bit in japan.



so, basically the new things are selling like crap.  Hopefully everything will begin to perform better.



Heavenly_King said:

so, basically the new things are selling like crap.  Hopefully everything will begin to perform better.

lol, yes.  so far so bad.



WTF is that 3DS graph.... so crazy... ups and downs.