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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will Switch outsell DS? PS2? Or Neither? (March 2024 Update Poll)

 

Will Switch outsell DS and/or PS2? or neither?

Switch will outsell both the DS & PS2 81 63.78%
 
Switch will outsell the DS, but not PS2 24 18.90%
 
Switch won't outsell DS or PS2 22 17.32%
 
Total:127

Ik this poll been done multiple times but I want to see the most recent opinions on this matter now that we have more recent info regarding the Switch 2's potential release window and Nintendo's latest holiday quarter...

What do you guys think?



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Assuming the next console comes out early 2025:

I think even a relatively aggressive transition strategy from Nintendo will leave the Switch with enough fuel to pass the DS if it ends up selling around the 10M mark during the fiscal year.

Very hard to tell if its going to pass the PS2 numbers. I don't even think it's so much about what games it will be getting in 2025 but more about how the market responds to the original Switch being the low cost alternative to the new one and Nintendo's production plans. I am going to say no but a very half-hearted no.




I think Switch could outsell both considering it's still selling 750k a month. The only way I can see it not passing PS2 is a collapse of sales after the succesor is announced.



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

Both. Still selling well.



i7-13700k

Vengeance 32 gb

RTX 4090 Ventus 3x E OC

Switch OLED

Only a Switch 2 this holiday could stop it. That is looking less likely now, so yes it's happening. Both are going down.



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It can even sell. But the more the Switch sells, the harder it's going to be for the successor to surpass it. Nintendo doesn't have a good track record when it comes to releasing consoles, when the previous console was very successful.



With the probable release in early-mid 2025, the Switch still has an active lifespan for the remainder of this year so to me, it is clear that surpassing the DS is more than feasible.
The PS2 .... It'll have to painfully leg it out after the release of the successor most probably, if it happens, which is possible



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

There's no realistic scenario where Switch doesn't pass the DS at this point. It could do it by March 31, 2025 but I think it will finish the fiscal year just below the handheld's total. In any case, 151m+ (shipped) is on lock by then, coming off of a 10m+ year (probably higher on both counts).

And I don't buy the idea of Nintendo suddenly killing off the Switch next year; the "$299 or less" sales demographic is something Nintendo is not going to abandon, at least until a "Lite" model of Switch 2 arrives, and the Switch legging it out past the PS2's total would not be difficult at that point.

I'm now confident in saying it's much more likely that the Switch beats the PS2 (reaches 160m) than it doesn't.

Last edited by archbrix - on 27 March 2024

As I already said, if Switch 2 is launching 2025 for real, then the chances of beating DS and PS2 becomes way bigger, and with a launch even in the spring of 2025, I can see the Switch beating the DS for sure, and coming very close or even passing the PS2. However I am still not sure if the Switch 2 will really launch in 2025. 2024 Launch is still possible.



My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

If Switch 2 comes next year? Yep. I’d expect 10mil this coming fiscal year, sending it to 152-153mil by March 31, 2025. All that’s left then is 7-8mil,…which if the Switch pulls 10mil in F’25, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say the Switch will succeed.