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July 2017 NPD Thread! Switch #1

Forums - Sales Discussion - July 2017 NPD Thread! Switch #1

SWORDF1SH said:
librarian13579 said:

The way that NeoGAF handled the 2chan leaks is they never posted anything blatantly...they just casually discussed figures in offhand posts.

Like: "PS3 didn't sell very well this month, which I think is due to XYZ."

And they would have a discussion around that. It wasn't this culture of "NUMBERS ARE RELEASED, MUST COPY AND PASTE AND DUMP IMMEDIATELY," which is never a smart way to handle sensitive data.

I understand but you need to be a bit more discrete  on how you release the numbers. This was never going to work... ever. 

I know this wouldn't give you any recognition if you passed the data to somebody else but that's the only way it can be done if you truly want to keep heat off yourself. 

I guess I'm just too much of an old-timer, when clearly the modern community over on NeoGAF has changed pretty dramatically for the worse from back in the day.

Back in the day when the community was smaller nobody would have been as stupid as Ethomaz. Now it's "an inevitability" someone will be a dumbass. I guess I'll have to keep that in mind when I don't leak anything directly ever again.



April 30th, 2011 - July 12th, 2018

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Hiku said:
SWORDF1SH said:

Firstly let's be honest, that is never to work and openly posting numbers and hoping NPD doesn't find out isn't going to happen. If Librarian wants to cover his/her tracks then they need to do it at the source. Like pm mods the figures and they post them. If anybody thought that this was going to work and the figures weren't going to find their way to gaf are just kidding themselves. With all due respect to Librarian, that was never going to happen.

But we are going off at a tangent, my point is that ethomaz obviously thinks of the whole situation differently. 

Again though people can say it's a silly move by ethomaz. It's their opinion. I don't have issue with that.

The goal of lowering the chances of NPD contacting him is not only to never get caught. It can also be to delay the inevitable. Getting numbers for 4 months is better than 3 months, etc.
And sure, someone is likely always going to disobey and post the numbers. And that's the one you can point fingers at. In this case it was Ethomaz.
But in those cases if the Gaf mods wanted to, they could clean up the topics from specific numbers.

But I can guarantee you that the data would find its way to gaf as soon as it's posted elsewhere. It would be no different than Librarian posting the numbers directly to gaf because it will find its way to gaf every single month. It's kinda laughable to think it wouldn't. Librarian just needs to change the way they disclose the numbers. 



librarian13579 said:
SWORDF1SH said:

I understand but you need to be a bit more discrete  on how you release the numbers. This was never going to work... ever. 

I know this wouldn't give you any recognition if you passed the data to somebody else but that's the only way it can be done if you truly want to keep heat off yourself. 

I guess I'm just too much of an old-timer, when clearly the modern community over on NeoGAF has changed pretty dramatically for the worse from back in the day.

Back in the day when the community was smaller nobody would have been as stupid as Ethomaz. Now it's "an inevitability" someone will be a dumbass. I guess I'll have to keep that in mind when I don't leak anything directly ever again.

Honestly, if it's your job on the line it's not worth risking at all. But if you can find a way to keep yourself safe and give us data we do appreciate the numbers. I think you're a marked man now though. Probably time for a new account. 



Carl2291 said:
Kerotan said:
Ethomaz is a very passionate and friendly gamer. He has a few haters but most like him. And I don't know anyone who ever played with him on psn that didn't enjoy his company. Some people should lay off the hatorade and give the man the respect he deserves.

As many have said, Vgchartz was happy to use leaks from gaf in the past. Can we really expect gaf not to use our leaks now?


There will be no leaks if idiots can't respect the leakers wishes. It's not really that difficult to understand.

Leaker - "Hey guys, there's a real good chance I'm gonna get caught if you post this on GAF, so please don't create any problems for us!"

Idiot - "Oh boy, oh boy! Let me post this on GAF!"

You call ethomaz an idiot but don't question the intelligence of the leaker who actually thought this would'nt make it to gaf.  And it's not like they owe Vgchartz anything.  We've been using their estimates and leaks regarding sales for years. And secondly you don't question his intelligence for thinking these super duper secret agents aren't keeping an eye on Vgchartz but only gaf?  

 

Let's be fair an partial here. This leaker doesn't subtly drop the numbers or message the mods secretly to have them published.  He claims he does it just for our good but I've a feeling the leaker enjoys all the attention too judging by his posts.  Regardless ethomaz is a very intelligent individual. 

iceland said:
Kerotan said:
Ethomaz is a very passionate and friendly gamer. He has a few haters but most like him. And I don't know anyone who ever played with him on psn that didn't enjoy his company. Some people should lay off the hatorade and give the man the respect he deserves.

Anyone else read this in a Trump voice?

I spit out my tea reading this xD

DonFerrari said:
TheBlackNaruto said:
Great PS4 numbers....Switch flat but still very good despite supple issues......I am just worried about the XB1 to be honest......

Not flat... 5 weeks on June against 4 weeks in July so a healthy improvement on weekly sales.

Ka-pi96 said:

IKR? It`s a bit insulting to ol` Donald too, he`s much more trustworthy and honest!

Than iceland or ethomaz?

SWORDF1SH said:

But ethomaz is neither dumb nor a cunt. He's a Brazilian God amongst us mere mortals. We should kiss the ground he treads.

Seriously though, he a very likable guy, I know you have personal issues with him but calling him a dumb cunt is a low blow.

I haven't had any issues with him and even liked the guy, but we know he ruffled quite a lot of feathers.

He may have ruffled a lot of feathers in the past but he still is to this day. Haven't visited vizioneck in a few hours but I'd say he's having a right old laugh. 



Kerotan said:

You call ethomaz an idiot but don't question the intelligence of the leaker who actually thought this would'nt make it to gaf.  And it's not like they owe Vgchartz anything.  We've been using their estimates and leaks regarding sales for years. And secondly you don't question his intelligence for thinking these super duper secret agents aren't keeping an eye on Vgchartz but only gaf?  

Let's be fair an partial here. This leaker doesn't subtly drop the numbers or message the mods secretly to have them published.  He claims he does it just for our good but I've a feeling the leaker enjoys all the attention too judging by his posts.  Regardless ethomaz is a very intelligent individual. 

All right, I think I'm done here.



April 30th, 2011 - July 12th, 2018

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Kero. Stahp.



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Ps4 software sales are incredible



librarian13579 said:

All right, I think I'm done here.

You'd have a better time literally headbutting a brick wall.



Not sure why anyone is surprised that a guy that was enough of a dick to get permabanned would continue to be a dick.



DonFerrari said:
Hiku said:

I'll refer to Librarian's answer to you above, but I'd also like to add to his post that there's a reason why NPD members don't have public accounts here on VGC. I believe Aqua also previously said that NPD are more concerned about what shows up on GAF because it has much higher trafic than this site.

And when your reply presented a "possibility" and not a certainty, I have to ask if you understand the concept of mitigation.
Usually it's just that the person in question hasn't thought of enough scenarios, and it doesn't look like you have.

Hiku. Tell me how much mitigation happened on it releasing to NeoGaf in less than a day later. That just shows you what was done wasn't mitigation at all.

Praying for a disaster not to hapening isn't mitigating to the upmost as librarian herself said she was doing. Mitigation should at least bring you to the "unlikely to occur and/or no severe damage if occuring" not bringing it to "catastrophic failure of large probability".

So I ask you, do you really understand the concept of mitigation or just heard the word and it's meaning in a dictionary?

No one said that "what was done" (Librarian posting here) alone was enough to mitigate the risk. It requirred the assistance of the Gaf members who Librarian expected would read it as well.
But one of the Gaf members chose not to comply, and none of the mods decided to remove the numbers. That's why there was no risk mitigation. It was not in Librarian's hands alone, but the community.

As for "Mitigation should at least bring you to the *insert criteria*", the goal is not for you to decide. If Librarian is ok with even just a 1% less chance of getting caught this month, that's up to him.
If I lower the likelihood of the boss' Death spell from 95% to 90%, I'm still extremely likely to die. But I've still mitigated the risk by 5%.
Whatever the actual number would have been, no one can quantify. But it is Librarian's assesment, as well as Aqua's (and she apparently knows NPD people personally) that NPD are much less concerned with VGC than they are with GAF. And the fact that they have no public accounts here is clear indication of that.

As for "praying for distaster not to happen", again, that is not the only goal of lowering the risk. It can also be to delay the inevitable. Getting numbers for 4 months is better than 3 months. Etc.

Your previous response in regards to risk mitigation was that NPD can still find out that the numbers were posted here. That's not a counter argument though, as Librarian and myself already made it clear to you multiple times that we are well aware of that, but that the goal was to just lower the risks of this happening. Not elliminate it.

Librarian/Me: We know that NPD can still find out that numbers are posted here, but we just want to lower the chance of it happening.
You: errrr you know that if Gaf members can find the numbers here, NPD can also find out, right? So your claim is still baseless.



That's not a counter argument. That's just repeating what we said, as if we claimed otherwise.
And because we explained it multiple times to you, it was certainly justified to ask if you understand the concept of mitigation, as it doesn't seem like you did based on your attempt of a retort.
And now you're saying that risk mitigation "should reach a specific criteria", but the one who decides how much they're content with mitigating is the risk taker himself. Don't move the goalpost.