Who likely won WW for July?
| poklane said: Best GAF prediction: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=245181399&postcount=45 [NSW] 220K 2nd best GAF prediction: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=244891287&postcount=14 [NSW] 243K The guy who makes the rankings for best predictions is refusing to go beyond the top 2 to prevents numbers from being calculated, but maybe someone can do something with the above numbers. Doubt it though. |
I don't understand how the ranking system works over there or how you can deduce certain numbers through having other constants (such as the ps4/switch figures for that month) but is it reasonable to assume we're somewhere in the ballpark for ~120k +/-10% for X1?
Well this is absolutely disappointing and since our only source has been chased away, we're back in the dark.
aLkaLiNE said:
I don't understand how the ranking system works over there or how you can deduce certain numbers through having other constants (such as the ps4/switch figures for that month) but is it reasonable to assume we're somewhere in the ballpark for ~120k +/-10% for X1? |
I would analyse the sum and distribution.
560k total for 1st
590k for 2nd
official is 222+217+x = 439+x
so let's say on this X could be 121k to 151k
on the individual
220k vs 222k -> 1% error 225k vs 217k -> 3,7% so X1 with 5% to 10% margin of error -> 103,5- 109k to 121k-126,5k... but should converge to 115k
243k vs 222k -> 9,5% error 219k vs 217k -> 1% and X1 with 2% to 5% margin (to have a similar sum of errors) -> 121,5-125,5k to 130,5-134,5k
on distribution
220:225:115 ->1.91:1,96:1
243:219:128 ->1,9:1,7:1
222:217:x to have something like 1,91 on Switch would mean -> 116k -> 1,91:1,87:1
to have something like 1,7 on PS4 would mean -> 127k-> 1,75:1,7:1
When putting the 3 scenarios for choosing the ranking I would say the best guess is 115-125k for X1. Which is a 27-33% drop YOY.
duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363
Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994
Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."
RolStoppable said:
poklane said that the NeoGAF rankings for this month are solely determined by how close the predictions were to actual Switch and PS4 numbers. In other words, the XB1 predictions were completely ignored and this month someone could have been a top ranked predictor with 220k Switch, 220k PS4 and 500k XB1. |
And there goes nothing kkkk.
So we can keep with that information from before that X1 sold less than 3DS and all be happy.
duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363
Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994
Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."
Shadow1980 said:
Numbers were catalogued from prior threads. I'm pretty sure all the numbers came from Aquamarine and librarian13579. Sony's numbers were global shipments, not U.S. sales. It's been pretty well established for a long time now that shipments ≠ sales. According to NPD, the PS4 sold 381k in the U.S. in June, up a good bit from last year. Overall, Q2 sales in the U.S. were up by 158k units, or 25.6%. In Japan, sales were very slightly down YoY. Media Create had the PS4 at 294,000 for weeks 14-26 last year, but only 292,368 for the same period this year, a dip of only 1632 units, or only 0.56%. As for Europe and smaller markets outside the NA/Japan/Europe triad, I don't know, but if actual unit sales (as opposed to shipments, which did decline by 5.7%) were down YoY for the April-June period, the loss had to come from outside the U.S. and Japan. |
Here is where I'm concerned about the data. If Sony is saying there is a decline, we should be able to find that decline in the individual regional markets. Japan had a decline but America increased based on what said. We don't know Europe. And America is one of the largest regions. So if we have Japan declining slightly and America having its strongest year (if I understand correctly), then wouldn't we see worldwide shipments go up? Shipments should be close to sales because Sony doesn't ship millions of these units at one time. It would be throughout the entire quarter. So while some difference could be due to big sales made at the end of the quarter (which may explain June), it should be close to what Sony is saying, especially if April and May were also up.
Also, console spending only went up $111 million. Nintendo Switch sold 1.95 million in America which would equate to $585 million in new sales. The NPD analyst have been crediting the increase in sales to Switch every month (and PS4 1TB in June). Some of this could be from a decline in Wii U sales, but there would still have to be a decline in the other systems to reflect it.
It just seems odd that there would be a huge increase in PS4 sales when shipments are down and the increase of the quarter was due to another system. I will ask: was there a price cut for the system since the last quarter? Might explain part of it
Sources:
https://venturebeat.com/2017/05/18/april-2017-npd/
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2017/170726e.pdf
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| Pionner said: Thanks ethomaz. Anyway, i doubt anyone is waiting for a $500 console that plays the same games as base XB1. XB1 isn't doing well because all throughout this 1 quarter all the games that were in conversation are on PS4 and Switch. There's no exclusive software to get people interested into purchasing the console. A $500 one that plays games a litte better isn't gioing to change XB sales. |
No one is waiting for the X1X? Then why did it do well on Amazon?
LivingMetal said:
So this is why Microsoft is pushing cross-play on other platforms. |
Or maybe gamers wanted cross-play.
thismeintiel said:
Well, let's not forget that NPD is the one who started being a dick first. They freely gave out numbers for years, like Media Create still does to this day. But, decided not to any longer. While that most likely had to do with requests from HW manufacturers whose numbers weren't that great, that's still BS and NPD should have told them to fuck off. Even still, we had leakers that weren't really sought after. My guess is even though they were leaking numbers, the HW manufacturers (most likely Sony and Nintendo) didn't care if the numbers were discussed by a few geeks in forums, they just didn't want them plastered all over sites for everyone to see. Now, we have MS selling very poorly and NPD has been encouraged to send out their goons to shut down any and all leaks. It's really a situation that shouldn't have happened. |
You think MS told NPD not to release HW numbers? Yeah, sure.
Carl2291 said:
Times change. People change. Places change. Languages change. One thing remains constant. ethomaz is a dumb cunt. |
Your last statement is true and I find it hard to believe that there are people here who still defend him.
| Dyllyo said: Hmmm... Why doesn't Microsoft want to share numbers anymore? |
Take a wild guess...and it started in 2014 when Satya Nadella became CEO of MS.
Proud to be a Californian.
When August NPD thread will be created?
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