If it reaches 500k is that success for there to be a 3rd game?

http://ca.ign.com/articles/2014/06/26/bayonetta-3-could-happen-as-nintendo-exclusive-says-dev

There won't be a Bayonetta 3 unless one of the big three funds it. I can't imagine Nintendo have made much money on Bayonetta 2, if any. I would be surprised if they funded another

Given that Bayo 1 barely got a sequel after it sold some 2 millions, It won't happen unless one of the big three pay for full development, like with bayo 2.

Doubt it... maybe if the game legs it out to 1 million at retail and very strong downloadable numbers, we might see one... but I doubt it :|

You know the article you linked us to was wrote back in June right? I'm sure by the first of the year Nintendo will know if they made enough off the game to warrant a 3rd entry. Putting Bayonetta in Smash would have done great things for the series but sadly that didn't happen.

It won't happen organically if the LT sales are only 500k.

nintendo already hinted at this actually. they/platinum are apparently already working on another (unannounced) project. my bet is it's something else and bayonetta 3 will come in 2016/17.

Not from the sales side of things. Bayo1 sold way more than a million but Sega decided the sequel isn't worth it. If Bayo3 is funded, it is because of other reasons, so it boils down to one of the big three.

Bayonetta 3 in 2020

Nah.. Like it has been said, Bayo 3 will only happen if it gets funded!