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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: Xbox 360 will not fall below 200k any time 2009...

Rainbird on 23 January 2009
numonex said:

5 to 10% is reasonable error rate. Squilliam's prediction was only 1.5% off the 200k weekly total. 98.5% is fairly good in my opinion.

But since these numbers are only for the second full week of '09 (meaning the numbers will drop further), having already reached the limit of the prediction means it was off track.



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Jo21 on 23 January 2009

so this is going to be ignored and leo-j prediction isn't?
his was 120k and the ps3 lowest was 118k.



numonex on 23 January 2009

150k minimum would of been a much safer prediction for X360.



Zlejedi on 23 January 2009
numonex said:

5 to 10% is reasonable error rate. Squilliam's prediction was only 1.5% off the 200k weekly total. 98.5% is fairly good in my opinion.

You are missing the point - he used "never" in the topic title which implies absolute certainity :)

 

 



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tuoyo on 23 January 2009

Terrible prediction. Falls flat even before the first month of the year has ended.



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wholikeswood on 23 January 2009

Amazing how this prediction is defended when it narrowly misses, but Leo had the piss taken out of him when the same thing happened to him...

I think both predictions are good, tbh.



DeotoxSlayer on 23 January 2009
Cueil said:
Zlejedi said:
A lot of damage control in the thread already :D

 

 The margin is tiny... it's not damage control... simply saying this doesn't nessarrily fall completely under 200k since it's only 1.5 percent under... Remember we don't get Walmart numbers.

 

It doesn't matter if they don't get the walmart number, then you could say that every prediction that is wrong is because we don't have the exact data, did people mention this when Leo-j failed his "PS3 never under 120k this year" by like 5k no they didn't and Squlliam doesn't get any special treatment.

If the numbers get adjusted up then fine but as of now Squilliam's prediction has failed and that's that.

EDIT: O BTW Squilliam you should probably remember the bet you made Oyvoyvoyv on page 2 if it goes even lower next week then you definetly lost and your is under someones control for a month =b



Kantor on 23 January 2009

To be fair, Leo-J missed his 120k WW weekly prediction one week by 2k sales, and we all said he'd succeeded.

Very well, you get one more chance. You can fail next week



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tuoyo on 23 January 2009
Kantor said:
To be fair, Leo-J missed his 120k WW weekly prediction one week by 2k sales, and we all said he'd succeeded.

Very well, you get one more chance. You can fail next week

Exactly.  The fact this has happened so early even with a very small margin can tell anyone that this is something that is going to happen quite often this year and at some points not even by a small margin.  Why argue small margins over a prediction that so clearly has no chance of lasting very long even if you disregard small margins of error.

 



Biggest Pikmin Fan on VGChartz I was chosen by default due to voting irregularities

Super Smash Brawl Code 1762-4158-5677 Send me a message if you want to receive a beat down

 

Slimebeast on 23 January 2009

200K minimum every weak of 2009 was an insane prediction even if you were drunk.

Even 150K minimum per weak will severely fail.

Just let this thread die now lol.