when Oprah stops buying extra copies...

I was going to post something pulled completely from my a**, but I have to admit that I have zero idea. The Wii's sales are unprecedented (the damn thing was the first toy to be on ToysR'Us' best buy list for Christmas on two separate years, and it may end up being there for a third year in a row...) and even Nintendo has zero idea where demand ends.

The most likely place for a price drop would be in Japan, but as Nintendogs and Monster Hunter have shown this generation, a single game can give a system a new life, if it's the right game. Animal Crossing will probably make sure there's no need for a price drop there this year, and Nintendo may well have something under wraps now that'll replicate its earlier success with the DS.

In conclusion, there are just far too many unknown variables for anyone, including Nintendo, to accurately forsee when a price drop is needed.

But for the record, I say Fall '09, just to toss something in here.

I think sometime in 2009 when/if there is a quiet release period.

USA? Maybe when the average price of Xbox 360 is ~$275 or less. Or when PS3 gets to $250/$350.

One of the reasons I don't think 2008 is the peak Wii year is because its sales have been growing without price cuts and with shortages ongoing for most of the year. In 2009, a price drop, and an even wider selection of games will boost Wii even further.

The other possibility though is that Motion Plus, Pikmin 3, Disaster, Conduit, whatever else comes out make a price cut unneccesary.

I think we get a Wii price cut in June 09' for Japan, maybe August 09' in the USA/Europe. It may not even be a traditional price cut: They could just package Wii Sports & Wii Fit with Wii and charge $250.

I think its fair to say Nintendo tends to release 50-60 games per console.

But the start of 2009, we'll have already seen Wii Sports/Wii Play/Wii Fit/Wi Music/Animal Crossing/Mario Galaxy/Mario Party 8/ Mario Strikers/Mario Baseball/Zelda/Excite Truck/Mario Kart/Smash Brothers/Links Crossbow Training/Fire Emblem/Batallion Wars/Wario land/Wario Ware/Metroid Prime 3/Pokemon Battle Revolution/Fatal Frame/Captain Rainbow/Big Brain Academy/Donkey Kong Barrel Blast/Endless Ocean/Super Paper Mario.

2009 will probably be something like Wii Sports Resort/Pikmin 3/Disaster: Day of Crisis/Mario Party 9/Kid Icarus/Punch Out Wii which should be enough to keep things rolling along.

2010 might be something more like Pokemon Battle Revolution 2/Luigi's Mansion 2/Mario Party 9/Kirby/Retro-project/new Fire Emblem/ Zelda with motion plus/ new internal IP

2011 might be Wii Music 2/ Pilotwings/Wario Land 2/new Monolith-project/Mario Party 10/ Starfox

2012 might be Mario & Sonic 2/new Intelligent System game/F Zero/new 2nd party IP

2013 will be when Wii really winds down...probably a new interally created IP/Pokemon Battle Revolution 3/Duck Hunt 2

2014 will be the last year...new Retro project/Mario Party 11

If we assme Nintendo will releas 50-60 Wii games, then alot of it depends on what they haven't released vs. what has been released.

I agree with this assessment.

last half 09 - first half 10

I don't even think demand will increase in 09. There are already some major 3rd party titles announced for 09. Christmas '09 Wii will see even more demand because it will be great for the kids and adults plus will have titles to satiate the tastes of the teens and young adults.

09 might see a new SKU but the first real price cut will be in 2010.

 Accually if the media supervisor at my local Best Buy is to be believed then Nintendo has already cut the price of the Wii to the retailer and is the biggest margin item that Best Buy sells out of their media department (video games, movies, music, etc.) 

To answer the original question. I think there is a chance of a price drop around late Q3 or early Q4 of next year but I could also see Nintendo doing something like packaging motion plus and/or wii speak and/or another game (like wii sports 2, etc.) into the wii and keeping the $250 price point.

This Christmas. Wii consoles are becoming more readily available. Just the other day I saw like 10 at Walmart.

Xbox 360 is seeing a price cut to $200 (I believe the Arcade bundle or something) and Nintendo will have to compete. Why buy a Wii when the 360 is 50 dollars cheaper?

I expect the Wii's price to be cut to $199.95 this Christmas.

I think that whatever year it happens in, the drop will occur probably in the spring or at latest the summer - to drive sales during a slow period. To me spring 2009 seems too soon - its just selling too well for that. So maybe in late summer 2009, but more likely spring 2010.

 Why buy an XBox360 Arcade when you can get a Wii for only $50 more?

A majority of the people who want the Wii and people who want the 360 are not the same people and the ones who want a Wii most could give two shits about the 360 going to $200 its still not the Wii and therefore not the gameing system they want.