The demand for the Nintendo Switch 2 is so high in Japan, I haven't seen a comment about My Nintendo Store website announcement for the fifth lottery, set to run from early July 2025 with deliveries expected by September!?

The requirements for the first 4 lotteries were:
- Active Nintendo Online for at least one year
- Minimum of 50 hours of playtime on a Switch

The new requirements for the fifth lottery are:
- "The applicant must have participated in one of the first four lotteries, and they must have never won in any of them"
- "The applicant’s Nintendo Account must have never been linked to a Nintendo Switch 2"

An exciting comparison to watch will be the Switch Lite VS the PS5 family

That Switch 2 crazy demand will likely be kept for quite a while. Can't say we should expect 100K+ weeks for the reminder of the week but honestly, this feels like a plausible early baseline for first few months if the actual demand is anything to go by.

Yeah me and my friends still haven't been able to get a Switch 2. Lost every lottery, not available normally in stores still.

Yeah it will be quite some time before you can just walk into a store in Japan and buy a Switch 2 easily.

It's the successor to the #1 console of all time there and after 8 years people have been craving the next one for ages.

Of course its biggest issue is its price. The PS5 was 50k yen for the disc version and 40k for the digital one when it launched and now it's 80k and 73k respectively. Was it collapsing in sales last year right as the 13k increase happened somehow just a complete coincidence? Come on now.

What is implausible is thinking the PS5 can't sell 800k across all of 2026 and 2027. Sony isn't gonna let the console completely die in its home country. If sales get dire enough they'll have to at least partially revert that price increase or do more discounts. This reminds me of how back in 2021-2022 some people were posting absurdly low lifetime predictions that it's already surpassed. Then other people got quite optimistic after its sales exploded in 2023 and now it's back to pessimism again. Just cause it's doing badly right now doesn't mean it's guaranteed to keep getting a lot worse and fall off a cliff. Things being more stable going forward is entirely possible.

That's not what you said at all.  I'm the one who said 8m by 2028 (as in, 800k for 2026/2027).  You said, "I expect it to be quite close to 8m by the end of next year so it'll be getting there by early 2027". Big difference. 

Of course it's guaranteed to get worse.  Do you seriously believe that the PS5's yearly sales drops are somehow going to soften in Japan now that Switch 2 is out?  The system will be lucky to be able to achieve 500k in 2026 and it probably won't.  Expecting it to "average a bit over 500k the next three years" is just crazy talk.

You literally said you think it'll likely be sub 500k next year and expect the drop in 2027 to be much larger than it is this year and next year so your math just isn't adding up since that would not be 800k for those two years.

No it is not at all guaranteed for the drop next year to be bigger than this year and yes I believe that could happen if it doesn't get any more price increases cause its price getting high is clearly the biggest reason why it's dropped so much since September so expecting things to be more stable going forward as long as it doesn't increase again is completely reasonable. Expecting a Playstation console to start selling like how the 360 did in Japan is what's crazy here. If things even started approaching that bad Sony would do something to try to boost sales. This is genuinely some Switch cliff level stuff.

We don't really know what the future will holds, DS1 did not really boost PS4 sales so will PS5 get a boost? I can see it still selling less than 10k or up to 50K.
Ghost of Yotei and other surprises could easily boost sales but yeah for now it is getting dire for PS. So far in Japan we got; 'switch is outselling PS5 by 2X 'Let's raise the price of PS5' Outselling PS5 by 3X 'Let's raise the price again' Outselling PS5 by 3.5X ' Let's port some IP's to Switch'... What's the next answer?

Interesting comments from Nintendo president Furukawa:

"Currently, in many countries, the demand for Switch2 exceeds the supply, and we are unable to meet it. We understand that some shareholders have also been unable to obtain it. We started accepting lottery sales at My Nintendo Store in April. The response far exceeded our expectations, and I announced in my name on X that there were 2.2 million applicants, along with an apology.

"Since then, we have conducted four lottery sales, but some people were not selected. We have announced that the fifth lottery will take place starting in July. Many general retailers have also conducted lottery sales. The number of stores offering in-store sales is gradually increasing.

"As a company, we are working to improve our production system to deliver as many units as possible. We apologise for the inconvenience caused by this initial demand, which greatly exceeded our expectations."

https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2025/06/nintendos-president-apologises-for-not-being-able-to-meet-switch-2-demand

Given that their 15M forecast was based on projected demand, and not production capabilities it seems we will see Nintendo revise their Switch 2 sales forecast upwards this fiscal year.

I mean you seem to be forgetting that PS played its biggest card for the whole generation already this year with MH Wilds. The big drop you see for PS5 this year happened even though Switch 2 wasn't on the market until June as well as the biggest PS5 game for the whole generation in MH Wilds came out this year. There is almost no way drop won't be bigger next year for PS5 in Japan. The Switch 2 will be on the market for the whole year, PS5 will be 1 year older, no game comparable to MH popularity will release in 2026 in Japan for PS5.

New releases like Splatoon Raiders and Pokemon gen 10 (And 3D Mario if it happens as well next year) will take total mindshare over PS5 in Japan next year, GTA selling potential is considerably less than those Nintendo games in the Japanese market.