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Sephiran on 28 June 2025
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Norion said:
archbrix said:

That's not what you said at all. I'm the one who said 8m by 2028 (as in, 800k for 2026/2027). You said, "I expect it to be quite close to 8m by the end of next year so it'll be getting there by early 2027". Big difference. 

Of course it's guaranteed to get worse. Do you seriously believe that the PS5's yearly sales drops are somehow going to soften in Japan now that Switch 2 is out? The system will be lucky to be able to achieve 500k in 2026 and it probably won't. Expecting it to "average a bit over 500k the next three years" is just crazy talk.

You literally said you think it'll likely be sub 500k next year and expect the drop in 2027 to be much larger than it is this year and next year so your math just isn't adding up since that would not be 800k for those two years.

No it is not at all guaranteed for the drop next year to be bigger than this year and yes I believe that could happen if it doesn't get any more price increases cause its price getting high is clearly the biggest reason why it's dropped so much since September so expecting things to be more stable going forward as long as it doesn't increase again is completely reasonable. Expecting a Playstation console to start selling like how the 360 did in Japan is what's crazy here. If things even started approaching that bad Sony would do something to try to boost sales. This is genuinely some Switch cliff level stuff.

I mean you seem to be forgetting that PS played its biggest card for the whole generation already this year with MH Wilds. The big drop you see for PS5 this year happened even though Switch 2 wasn't on the market until June as well as the biggest PS5 game for the whole generation in MH Wilds came out this year. There is almost no way drop won't be bigger next year for PS5 in Japan. The Switch 2 will be on the market for the whole year, PS5 will be 1 year older, no game comparable to MH popularity will release in 2026 in Japan for PS5.

New releases like Splatoon Raiders and Pokemon gen 10 (And 3D Mario if it happens as well next year) will take total mindshare over PS5 in Japan next year, GTA selling potential is considerably less than those Nintendo games in the Japanese market.