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Norion on 28 June 2025
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archbrix said:
Norion said:

Of course its biggest issue is its price. The PS5 was 50k yen for the disc version and 40k for the digital one when it launched and now it's 80k and 73k respectively. Was it collapsing in sales last year right as the 13k increase happened somehow just a complete coincidence? Come on now.

What is implausible is thinking the PS5 can't sell 800k across all of 2026 and 2027. Sony isn't gonna let the console completely die in its home country. If sales get dire enough they'll have to at least partially revert that price increase or do more discounts. This reminds me of how back in 2021-2022 some people were posting absurdly low lifetime predictions that it's already surpassed. Then other people got quite optimistic after its sales exploded in 2023 and now it's back to pessimism again. Just cause it's doing badly right now doesn't mean it's guaranteed to keep getting a lot worse and fall off a cliff. Things being more stable going forward is entirely possible.

That's not what you said at all. I'm the one who said 8m by 2028 (as in, 800k for 2026/2027). You said, "I expect it to be quite close to 8m by the end of next year so it'll be getting there by early 2027". Big difference. 

Of course it's guaranteed to get worse. Do you seriously believe that the PS5's yearly sales drops are somehow going to soften in Japan now that Switch 2 is out? The system will be lucky to be able to achieve 500k in 2026 and it probably won't. Expecting it to "average a bit over 500k the next three years" is just crazy talk.

You literally said you think it'll likely be sub 500k next year and expect the drop in 2027 to be much larger than it is this year and next year so your math just isn't adding up since that would not be 800k for those two years.

No it is not at all guaranteed for the drop next year to be bigger than this year and yes I believe that could happen if it doesn't get any more price increases cause its price getting high is clearly the biggest reason why it's dropped so much since September so expecting things to be more stable going forward as long as it doesn't increase again is completely reasonable. Expecting a Playstation console to start selling like how the 360 did in Japan is what's crazy here. If things even started approaching that bad Sony would do something to try to boost sales. This is genuinely some Switch cliff level stuff.

Last edited by Norion - on 28 June 2025