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Norion on 27 June 2025
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archbrix said:
Norion said:

The drop is so big cause of a price increase so I think it'll be more stable going forward as long as it doesn't get another one. I really don't think sub 500k next year is happening unless that happens so I expect it to be quite close to 8m by the end of next year so it'll be getting there by early 2027, not 2028.

As I said before it'll be at 7.2-7.3m by the end of this year so a 2028 launch for the PS6 means it'd just to average a bit over 500k the next three years to crawl there with some extra sales post 2028. That doesn't seem like that big of an ask to me considering aspects like holiday sales and occasional discounts like the one that ended earlier this month.

If you're going to continue to believe that the PS5's main issue in Japan is the price then the numbers you put up will just continue to be implausible. The only part of your post that makes sense is the console being at 7.2-7.3m by the end of this year, which I do believe is possible (albeit on the low end of that).

But there is no way the PS5 will be quite close to 8m by the end of next year in Japan and it certainly won't average a bit over 500k for the next three years. Not even close.

Of course its biggest issue is its price. The PS5 was 50k yen for the disc version and 40k for the digital one when it launched and now it's 80k and 73k respectively. Was it collapsing in sales last year right as the 13k increase happened somehow just a complete coincidence? Come on now.

What is implausible is thinking the PS5 can't sell 800k across all of 2026 and 2027. Sony isn't gonna let the console completely die in its home country. If sales get dire enough they'll have to at least partially revert that price increase or do more discounts. This reminds me of how back in 2021-2022 some people were posting absurdly low lifetime predictions that it's already surpassed. Then other people got quite optimistic after its sales exploded in 2023 and now it's back to pessimism again. Just cause it's doing badly right now doesn't mean it's guaranteed to keep getting a lot worse and fall off a cliff. Things being more stable going forward is entirely possible.

Last edited by Norion - on 27 June 2025