archbrix said:
The PS5 will likely sell <850k this year in Japan. We're looking at about a 45% drop from last year's 1.5m. And that's with Monster Hunter's release and no Switch 2 for five months of the year. Even with GTA6 next year, the drop will likely be larger than that for 2026, with the system likely selling <500k, and a much larger drop for 2027. That would put the console at maybe 8m by 2028, which as I've said before, it'll probably cross in the end. But as you've pointed out, there are factors like an early launch of PS6 or even a PS handheld that could possibly change that outcome, even if unlikely. On the other hand, there is no scenario where the PS5 reaches 9m at all. No matter when new Sony hardware releases. You need to understand that interest in the PS5 and its software just isn't there in Japan going forward with Switch 2 on the market. The vast majority of Playstation fans and people who buy everything have already got it. Switch 2 will be the de facto system for the region. It is a very different market from the rest of the world where there is plenty of interest for both a "Playstation" and a "Switch". So no, 9m for the PS5 is not a realistic possibility in Japan, crawling or otherwise. |
The drop is so big cause of a price increase so I think it'll be more stable going forward as long as it doesn't get another one. I really don't think sub 500k next year is happening unless that happens so I expect it to be quite close to 8m by the end of next year so it'll be getting there by early 2027, not 2028.
As I said before it'll be at 7.2-7.3m by the end of this year so a 2028 launch for the PS6 means it'd just to average a bit over 500k the next three years to crawl there with some extra sales post 2028. That doesn't seem like that big of an ask to me considering aspects like holiday sales and occasional discounts like the one that ended earlier this month.
