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Interesting comments from Nintendo president Furukawa:

"Currently, in many countries, the demand for Switch2 exceeds the supply, and we are unable to meet it. We understand that some shareholders have also been unable to obtain it. We started accepting lottery sales at My Nintendo Store in April. The response far exceeded our expectations, and I announced in my name on X that there were 2.2 million applicants, along with an apology.

"Since then, we have conducted four lottery sales, but some people were not selected. We have announced that the fifth lottery will take place starting in July. Many general retailers have also conducted lottery sales. The number of stores offering in-store sales is gradually increasing.

"As a company, we are working to improve our production system to deliver as many units as possible. We apologise for the inconvenience caused by this initial demand, which greatly exceeded our expectations."

https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2025/06/nintendos-president-apologises-for-not-being-able-to-meet-switch-2-demand

Given that their 15M forecast was based on projected demand, and not production capabilities it seems we will see Nintendo revise their Switch 2 sales forecast upwards this fiscal year.