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Forums - Sales Discussion - February 2024 VGChartz Estimates Thread - Worldwide Estimates Out

XtremeBG said:
trunkswd said:

Looks like the Americas and worldwide March estimates will be delayed until the beginning of May with March NPD/Circana not being posted until May 1.

For situations like these I want back the weekly comparisons .. or at least monthly estimates you did before, when NPD reports weren't still avaiable, so that the numbers are out when it's right, not a full month later .. In may we get for march ..

Let aside the stupidity of NPD counting the first 6 days of April as a march week ..

It is rather annoying, but nothing we can do about it. We made the switch to reporting the sales monthly for two reasons. The first is so the initial estimates are more accurate and the second is due to severe burnout posting the estimates every week then having to adjust them once NPD/Circana and the Europe reports came out.

As far as what weeks will go into what months - we follow NPD/Circana dates. So yes, that means that last week of March will have 6 whole days in April. And the same with June having 6 days in July.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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trunkswd said:

It is rather annoying, but nothing we can do about it. We made the switch to reporting the sales monthly for two reasons. The first is so the initial estimates are more accurate and the second is due to severe burnout posting the estimates every week then having to adjust them once NPD/Circana and the Europe reports came out.

As far as what weeks will go into what months - we follow NPD/Circana dates. So yes, that means that last week of March will have 6 whole days in April. And the same with June having 6 days in July.

Can't some numbers at least be posted for the month as well ? just like before there were estimates for the week and then adjusting them when the report is out.

At least for a situations like these with delays ? When the europe report is out let's say in mid april or 20 april to put estimates of the US ones, and then adjust them in the beginning of may so that there is no so much waiting ?

As for the weeks, I know that the site is following NPD dates, just their strategy about this when there are weeks with 6 days into the next month is stupid.



My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts

With Switch at 1.77M YTD and PS5 at 2.68M YTD.

How does this stack up with the projections of both firms with Switch projected 15.5M for FY24 and Sony projected 21M for PS5?



Tober said:

With Switch at 1.77M YTD and PS5 at 2.68M YTD.

How does this stack up with the projections of both firms with Switch projected 15.5M for FY24 and Sony projected 21M for PS5?

Nintendo's projection is shipments of 1.8m units from January to March. Sony's projection for the same period is 4.6m.

So Nintendo is well on track to meet and exceed their forecast, but it was already clear that they picked the safe target with 15.5m over the more ambitious next step of 16.0m (forecasts are done in increments of 0.5m at that level). The pace of the PS5 is just good enough to make it possible to hit 21m for the full fiscal year, but this could go either way.

The caveat for the post-holiday quarter is that it's prone to be a correction quarter for the market, so consoles that have been overshipped during the holidays can have a quarter where their sell-through exceeds shipments. But this shouldn't be a big deal this year as both consoles' supply and demand were in good balance at the end of calendar year 2023.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

RolStoppable said:
Tober said:

With Switch at 1.77M YTD and PS5 at 2.68M YTD.

How does this stack up with the projections of both firms with Switch projected 15.5M for FY24 and Sony projected 21M for PS5?

Nintendo's projection is shipments of 1.8m units from January to March. Sony's projection for the same period is 4.6m.

So Nintendo is well on track to meet and exceed their forecast, but it was already clear that they picked the safe target with 15.5m over the more ambitious next step of 16.0m (forecasts are done in increments of 0.5m at that level). The pace of the PS5 is just good enough to make it possible to hit 21m for the full fiscal year, but this could go either way.

The caveat for the post-holiday quarter is that it's prone to be a correction quarter for the market, so consoles that have been overshipped during the holidays can have a quarter where their sell-through exceeds shipments. But this shouldn't be a big deal this year as both consoles' supply and demand were in good balance at the end of calendar year 2023.

Thanks!



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RolStoppable said:
Tober said:

With Switch at 1.77M YTD and PS5 at 2.68M YTD.

How does this stack up with the projections of both firms with Switch projected 15.5M for FY24 and Sony projected 21M for PS5?

Nintendo's projection is shipments of 1.8m units from January to March. Sony's projection for the same period is 4.6m.

So Nintendo is well on track to meet and exceed their forecast, but it was already clear that they picked the safe target with 15.5m over the more ambitious next step of 16.0m (forecasts are done in increments of 0.5m at that level). The pace of the PS5 is just good enough to make it possible to hit 21m for the full fiscal year, but this could go either way.

The caveat for the post-holiday quarter is that it's prone to be a correction quarter for the market, so consoles that have been overshipped during the holidays can have a quarter where their sell-through exceeds shipments. But this shouldn't be a big deal this year as both consoles' supply and demand were in good balance at the end of calendar year 2023.

If I may add here are the numbers in terms of sold and shipped as of Feb 29th 2024.

SoldShippedFY goal
Switch14.58M15.51M15.5M
PS519.67M19.07M21M

I am using 141.13M as shipped for Switch, it's a rough estimate.
I am using 57.47M as shipped for PS5, again it's a rough estimate.

If we are using the sold as our base, then Nintendo needs to sell 0.92M more units in March which will be a very tough thing to do given that Jan and Feb sold 0.999M and 0.77M respectively. Jan-Feb are low selling months but given that the main Nintendo game in March is Princess Peach Showtime, it could be difficult. But I have hope that it can achieve 0.92M in sales.
Sony needs to sell 1.33M more units in March, and that can become a reality given that Jan and Feb sold 1.39M and 1.29M respectively, and Jan-Feb are usually the two lowest selling months of the year.

For Shipped things don't look as good for the PS5. PS5 need to ship 1.93M units in March alone, granted this is a rough estimate.
I can see Nintendo shipping another 1M by the end of the FY.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.