February 2024 VGChartz Estimates Thread - Worldwide Estimates Out

[RolStoppable]

Tober said:

With Switch at 1.77M YTD and PS5 at 2.68M YTD.

How does this stack up with the projections of both firms with Switch projected 15.5M for FY24 and Sony projected 21M for PS5?

Nintendo's projection is shipments of 1.8m units from January to March. Sony's projection for the same period is 4.6m.

So Nintendo is well on track to meet and exceed their forecast, but it was already clear that they picked the safe target with 15.5m over the more ambitious next step of 16.0m (forecasts are done in increments of 0.5m at that level). The pace of the PS5 is just good enough to make it possible to hit 21m for the full fiscal year, but this could go either way.

The caveat for the post-holiday quarter is that it's prone to be a correction quarter for the market, so consoles that have been overshipped during the holidays can have a quarter where their sell-through exceeds shipments. But this shouldn't be a big deal this year as both consoles' supply and demand were in good balance at the end of calendar year 2023.