February 2024 VGChartz Estimates Thread - Worldwide Estimates Out

[Shtinamin_]

RolStoppable said:

Tober said:

With Switch at 1.77M YTD and PS5 at 2.68M YTD.

How does this stack up with the projections of both firms with Switch projected 15.5M for FY24 and Sony projected 21M for PS5?

Nintendo's projection is shipments of 1.8m units from January to March. Sony's projection for the same period is 4.6m.

So Nintendo is well on track to meet and exceed their forecast, but it was already clear that they picked the safe target with 15.5m over the more ambitious next step of 16.0m (forecasts are done in increments of 0.5m at that level). The pace of the PS5 is just good enough to make it possible to hit 21m for the full fiscal year, but this could go either way.

The caveat for the post-holiday quarter is that it's prone to be a correction quarter for the market, so consoles that have been overshipped during the holidays can have a quarter where their sell-through exceeds shipments. But this shouldn't be a big deal this year as both consoles' supply and demand were in good balance at the end of calendar year 2023.

If I may add here are the numbers in terms of sold and shipped as of Feb 29th 2024.

	Sold	Shipped	FY goal
Switch	14.58M	15.51M	15.5M
PS5	19.67M	19.07M	21M

I am using 141.13M as shipped for Switch, it's a rough estimate.
I am using 57.47M as shipped for PS5, again it's a rough estimate.

If we are using the sold as our base, then Nintendo needs to sell 0.92M more units in March which will be a very tough thing to do given that Jan and Feb sold 0.999M and 0.77M respectively. Jan-Feb are low selling months but given that the main Nintendo game in March is Princess Peach Showtime, it could be difficult. But I have hope that it can achieve 0.92M in sales.
Sony needs to sell 1.33M more units in March, and that can become a reality given that Jan and Feb sold 1.39M and 1.29M respectively, and Jan-Feb are usually the two lowest selling months of the year.

For Shipped things don't look as good for the PS5. PS5 need to ship 1.93M units in March alone, granted this is a rough estimate.
I can see Nintendo shipping another 1M by the end of the FY.