Great quarterly sales for every type of Mario content you could say.

A nice launch for Super Mario RPG which is already over it's predecessor by double. It's probably gonna finish up it's run around 4M-5M I think. Mario RPGs have a market so I'm quite confident for the Paper Mario TTYD Remake.

Super Mario Wonder had the Holiday boost that most would've expected, even beyond NSMB Wii at the moment. It'll likely continue to ride a good momentum this whole year until new hardware is to appear, even then, numbers will go up nonetheless. 

Zelda TOTK which was overshipped at launch finally is starting to build up again. It's difficult to think if it'll catch up totally with Zelda BOTW ... But I think some kind of remaster/deluxe edition on the Switch successor could help.

Looking at the overall revenue, it's on the net positive as usual, even increased due to exterior streams of revenue outside of the home console buisness, and also the cards which both doubled their total revenue.

To finish the fiscal year at about 141M Switch shipped is definitely a good step in the direction of surpassing the reigning DS when it comes to their own hardwares. Can't say if it truly has the potential of surpassing the PS2 at this point however, we'll know once we understand Nintendo strategy for its next generation hardware.

Nintendo will sell an average of 900k units each month in January, February and March for a total of 2.7M. It will have shipped 142.06M.
Nintendo will most likely set a goal of 10M Switch units sold, which is -30% decline from 15M (and a bit more than a -30% decline from 15.5M). I sells as average of 900k units each month until the rumored Sept successor launch, shipping 146.56M.

Once the Successor releases it goes downhill.

Personally, we have signs of a successor but they are the early signs.
It takes around 1.5 years, usually, for a console to launch after dev get the early dev kits. We heard about Nintendo's next gen dev kits in July 2023, so expect the release near Jan 2025 at the earliest. So yes, I do expect a Spring 2025 next gen release. And thats just one sign.

That's true. Although, the voucher program may have leveled that playing field, since a digital game for $50 is likely to be close in revenue to a physical game for $60. Has Nintendo put out any data how many vouchers they've sold?

-Super Mario RPG already over 3 million! Insane! I was concerned that the late age of the console would cause bad sales (I also have that concern for TTYD which will be launching closer to Switch 2 release). Very shocked!

-SMW is gonna have crazy legs. Those games never have amazing starts. Also, I'm fairly confident any Switch game released in the last couple years of its life will come to Switch 2 so that will help sales out.

-I'm now wondering if Nintendo will release Switch 2 and simultaneously push Switch 1. At some point you have to release your hardware or it's tech will start to get outdated. Doing R&D to stall Switch 2 release and beef up the tech is impossible at this stage of development, many developers are already working on Switch 2 games based on its specs which were no doubt set years ago. But at the same time, milk the Switch for all the profit you can get, right? It's hard to juggle that.

-Conspiracy speculation - Nintendo was made aware of Microsoft's pending shift years ago and Switch 2 will be even beefier so it can have all MS ported games.

Giving it a little though I'd say the DS is a very, very possible target to reach at this point as long as Nintendo doesn't decide to discontinue their most succesful system ever a few months after the successor. 10m feels like the absolute floor for this year so at most it would need 5m in 2025 and beyond. That seems exceedingly doable if they keep shipping it as long as there's demand.

PS2 is admittedly still tricky though and the Switch could very well end up in that dangerous 155-160m range, which, since we don't have exact confirmation on PS2 numbers, would inevitably result in endless arguments over which system really sold more.

For that debate, we'll most probably have the final tally on the Switch sales by the end of it's life. Kind of a bummer, Sony never really did the same in the end since it mostly lead to educated reasoning as to why the PS2 is currently the best selling console of all time. In the end, symbolically, the fact the Switch has the possibility to reach such a result is the biggest surprise of these last generations really.

Of course now, the discourse over it's successor will possibly get heated due to Nintendo's history with transition from successful hardware to other ones but the Switch legacy will live on nonetheless.

Good sales for Mario Wonder. I'm playing through it right now and it's really good so far.

Yep. Whenever "sales" are reported by any of the Big Three (not that MS shares shipment figures anymore), it's always in terms of units shipped, not units sold to end users. There's always going to be some stock left in supply channels at the end of any quarter. For example, at the end of any given calendar year from 2014 to 2019, the PS4 had anywhere from 1.8M to 3.7M units left in supply channels worldwide (the average was about 2.8M). If VGC's estimate of 136.7M units for the Switch is accurate, that would mean it had over 2.6M unsold units in the supply channels, which would not be all that unusual.

Hardware is somewhat higher than I expected given the drops we saw in some of the weekly/monthly charts. Even after all these years, the elderly Switch still punches like a champ.

Switch Sports is a real standout here; 1.7m for the quarter more than a year and a half after its release is seriously impressive and really goes to show that there's still a lot of interest in this sort of software, contrary to the narrative among some gamers that it was a short-lived fad.

Pikmin has also really blossomed on Switch; entries on prior consoles never passed 2 million, yet here it is passing 3 in under 6 months. 

No worries, happy to assist. :)

I appreciate it. I will hopefully not get confused for when Sony releases their earnings report.

I adjusted up our Switch estimates, mainly in regions we get very little data from like mainland Asia, MEA, and "other" Europe.

Switch units shipped during Q3 (Oct to Dec)- 6.9 million

Vgchartz estimates before adjustments- 5.73 million 

Vgchartz estimates after adjustments- 6.19 million. 

So, it has been adjusted up by 460k units. Right?