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Forums - Sales Discussion - Ultimate Consoles Showdown 2024: November 2nd (Charts updated)

 

Which of those has the biggest chance of happening?

Switch beating 12.8M 0 0%
 
PS5 beating 19.3M 1 100.00%
 
XBSX beating 6.3M 0 0%
 
Switch 2 announcement this year 0 0%
 
Total:1
XtremeBG on 14 January 2024

This is the Ultimate Console Showdown comparison thread for 2024.

The battles for this year are as follows:

  • XBOX Series 2024 vs Nintendo Switch 2024 in USA
  • Nintendo Switch vs DS'11 (9.4M) vs PSP'07 (12.8M)
  • PlayStation 5 vs Nintendo Switch'19 (19.3M)
  • XBOX Series vs XB360'13 (6.3M) vs XB1'20 (4M)

*The target for all of the comparisons is to be as close as possible (and with that to give us better perspective where the given console is going this year) and to have good chance of finishing close in the end. Therefore if some of the contenders go way far one from another then, the contender's year, or even the contender itself may change so that it suits better to the given's console performance in 2024. Other thing is also I would not repeat main competitor (on the tables) from the year before from my thread, so even if it's a good fit, I would always look for a different one, so it's always new and fresh.*

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2024 Xbox Series vs. 2024 Nintendo Switch Comparison USA

Week/Month '24 XBSX - Weekly '24 XBSX - Yearly '24 NSW- Weekly '24 NSW- Yearly (+/-) Weekly

(+/-) Yearly
January 56,873 56,873 59,267 59,267 +2,394 +2,394
2 45,168 102,041 49,962 109,229 +4,794 +7,188
3 44,267 146,308 47,628 156,857 +3,361 +10,549
4 45,731 192,039 49,792 206,649 +4,061 +14,610
5 48,706 240,745 51,024 257,673 +2,318 +16,928
February 47,142 287,887 51,502 309,175 +4,360 +21,288
7 49,381 337,268 53,094 362,269 +3,713 +25,001
8 51,229 388,497 55,873 418,142 +4,644 +29,645
9 51,212 439,709 52,769 470,911 +1,557 +31,202
March 45,769 485,478 49,802 520,713 +4,033 +35,235
11 43,896 529,374 46,319 567,032 +2,423 +37,658
12 43,630 573,004 46,191 613,223 +2,561 +40,219
13 41,626 614,630 45,317 658,540 +3,691 +43,910
14 41,168 655,798 44,483 703,023 +3,315 +47,225
April 31,452 687,250 36,315 739,338 +4,863 +52,088
16 30,798 718,048 33,167 772,505 +2,369 +54,457
17 27,265 745,313 30,082 802,587 +2,817 +57,274
18 26,517 771,830 30,983 833,570 +4,466 +61,740
May 26,612 798,442 30,946 864,516 +4,334 +66,074
20 27,786 826,228 31,385 895,901 +3,599 +69,673
21 30,241 856,469 33,796 929,697 +3,555 +73,228
22 29,424 885,893 32,887 962,584 +3,463 +76,691
June 28,843 914,736 33,529 996,113 +4,686 +81,377
24 32,561 947,297 36,634 1,032,747 +4,073 +85,450
25 34,652 981,949 38,456 1,071,203 +3,804 +89,254
26 35,129 1,017,078 39,787 1,110,990 +4,658 +93,912
July 35,061 1,052,139 41,560 1,152,550 +6,499 +100,411
28 40,716 1,092,855 40,392 1,192,942 -324 +100,087
29 69,828 1,162,683 38,953 1,231,895 -30,875 +69,212
30 64,526 1,227,209 36,836 1,268,731 -27,690 +41,522
31 61,038 1,288,247 35,780 1,304,511 -25,258 +16,264
August 38,262 1,326,509 37,628 1,342,139 -634 +15,630
33 34,005 1,360,514 33,126 1,375,265 -879 +14,751
34 33,175 1,393,689 32,411 1,407,676 -764 +13,987
35 34,617 1,428,306 33,862 1,441,538 -755 +13,232
September 30,635 1,458,941 28,828 1,470,366 -1,807 +11,425
37 28,719 1,487,660 29,473 1,499,839 +754 +12,179
38 27,267 1,514,927 31,898 1,531,737 +4,631 +16,810
39 28,340 1,543,267 38,982 1,570,719 +10,642 +27,452
40 30,173 1,573,440 35,787 1,606,506 +5,614 +33,066
October 33,078 1,606,518 30,162 1,636,668 -2,916 +30,150
42 40,789 1,647,307 32,985 1,669,653 -7,804 +22,346
43 46,726 1,694,033 34,989 1,704,642 -11,737 +10,609
44 44,448 1,738,481 36,876 1,741,518 -7,572 +3,037
November
46
47
48
December
50
51
52

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2007 Playstation Portable vs. 2024 Nintendo Switch Comparison

Week/Month '07 PSP - Weekly '07 PSP - Yearly '24 NSW - Weekly '24 NSW - Yearly (+/-) Weekly

(+/-) Yearly
January 269,418 269,418 281,477 281,477 +12,059 +12,059
2 182,400 451,818 177,380 458,857 -5,020 +7,039
3 169,356 621,174 165,199 624,056 -4,157 +2,882
4 163,208 784,382 167,243 791,299 +4,035 +6,917
5 155,644 940,026 168,546 959,845 +12,902 +19,819
February 151,153 1,091,179 182,459 1,142,304 +31,306 +51,125
7 151,251 1,242,430 181,237 1,323,541 +29,986 +81,111
8 210,149 1,452,579 187,412 1,510,953 -22,737 +58,374
9 175,399 1,627,978 196,613 1,707,566 +21,214 +79,588
March 163,712 1,791,690 190,391 1,897,957 +26,679 +106,267
11 150,424 1,942,114 159,064 2,057,021 +8,640 +114,907
12 141,159 2,083,273 177,080 2,234,101 +35,921 +150,828
13 138,964 2,222,237 170,306 2,404,407 +31,342 +182,170
14 149,509 2,371,746 196,447 2,600,854 +46,938 +229,108
April 158,519 2,530,265 189,633 2,790,487 +31,114 +260,222
16 156,114 2,686,379 177,298 2,967,785 +21,184 +281,406
17 164,685 2,851,064 168,466 3,136,251 +3,781 +285,187
18 227,438 3,078,502 153,641 3,289,892 -73,797 +211,390
May 228,145 3,306,647 162,156 3,452,048 -65,989 +145,401
20 208,978 3,515,625 156,391 3,608,439 -52,587 +92,814
21 197,739 3,713,364 166,904 3,775,343 -30,835 +61,979
22 195,539 3,908,903 163,981 3,939,324 -31,558 +30,421
June 189,454 4,098,357 157,470 4,096,794 -31,984 -1,563
24 188,254 4,286,611 139,913 4,236,707 -48,341 -49,904
25 186,788 4,473,399 143,103 4,379,810 -43,685 -93,589
26 195,927 4,669,326 153,781 4,533,591 -42,146 -135,735
July 183,447 4,852,773 165,806 4,699,397 -17,641 -153,376
28 179,589 5,032,362 161,290 4,860,687 -18,299 -171,675
29 179,753 5,212,115 177,898 5,038,585 -1,855 -173,530
30 172,989 5,385,104 169,419 5,208,004 -3,570 -177,100
31 164,166 5,549,270 171,075 5,379,079 +6,909 -170,191
August 151,222 5,700,492 188,579 5,567,658 +37,357 -132,834
33 146,355 5,846,847 164,940 5,732,598 +18,585 -114,249
34 130,468 5,977,315 153,663 5,886,261 +23,195 -91,054
35 121,530 6,098,845 177,725 6,063,986 +56,195 -34,859
September 120,771 6,219,616 166,208 6,230,194 +45,437 +10,578
37 330,180 6,549,796 143,949 6,374,143 -186,231 -175,653
38 509,170 7,058,966 147,975 6,522,118 -361,195 -536,848
39 350,051 7,409,017 198,309 6,720,427 -151,742 -688,590
40 302,480 7,711,497 171,574 6,892,001 -130,906 -819,496
October 254,440 7,965,937 154,581 7,046,582 -99,859 -919,355
42 251,277 8,217,214 169,128 7,215,710 -82,149 -1,001,504
43 243,047 8,460,261 185,575 7,401,285 -57,472 -1,058,976
44 239,942 8,700,203 185,573 7,586,858 -54,369 -1,113,345
November 254,744 8,954,947
46 280,499 9,235,446
47 447,202 9,682,648
48 436,940 10,119,588
December 558,836 10,678,424
50 734,620 11,413,044
51 842,113 12,255,157
52 584,140 12,839,297

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2019 Nintendo Switch vs. 2024 PlayStation 5 Comparison

Week/Month '19 NSW - Weekly '19 NSW - Yearly '24 PS5 - Weekly '24 PS5 - Yearly (+/-) Weekly

(+/-) Yearly
January 422,991 422,991 302,314 302,314 -120,677 -120,677
2 261,313 684,304 252,968 555,282 -8,345 -129,022
3 239,630 923,934 288,554 843,836 +48,924 -80,098
4 223,917 1,147,851 268,694 1,112,530 +44,777 -35,321
5 243,086 1,390,937 248,157 1,360,687 +5,071 -30,250
February 246,901 1,637,838 288,014 1,648,701 +41,113 +10,863
7 245,603 1,883,441 308,534 1,957,235 +62,931 +73,794
8 236,788 2,120,229 325,675 2,282,910 +88,887 +162,681
9 256,993 2,377,222 340,691 2,623,601 +83,698 +246,379
March 243,351 2,620,573 266,607 2,890,208 +23,256 +269,635
11 222,088 2,842,661 266,509 3,156,717 +44,421 +314,056
12 219,395 3,062,056 260,398 3,417,115 +41,003 +355,059
13 224,764 3,286,820 243,945 3,661,060 +19,181 +374,240
14 197,196 3,484,016 241,476 3,902,536 +44,280 +418,520
April 210,035 3,694,051 201,545 4,104,081 -8,490 +410,030
16 185,560 3,879,611 182,774 4,286,855 -2,786 +407,244
17 192,442 4,072,053 194,704 4,481,559 +2,262 +409,506
18 192,284 4,264,337 204,192 4,685,751 +11,908 +421,414
May 186,628 4,450,965 208,321 4,894,072 +21,693 +443,107
20 166,937 4,617,902 199,727 5,093,799 +32,790 +475,897
21 174,689 4,792,591 208,209 5,302,008 +33,520 +509,417
22 180,828 4,973,419 232,050 5,534,058 +51,222 +560,639
June 191,428 5,164,847 221,489 5,755,547 +30,061 +590,700
24 209,397 5,374,244 219,786 5,975,333 +10,389 +601,089
25 209,000 5,583,244 209,519 6,184,852 +519 +601,608
26 290,267 5,873,511 212,961 6,397,813 -77,306 +524,302
July 245,075 6,118,586 213,460 6,611,273 -31,615 +492,687
28 226,783 6,345,369 247,534 6,858,807 +20,751 +513,438
29 211,210 6,556,579 316,045 7,174,852 +104,835 +618,273
30 201,103 6,757,682 295,378 7,470,230 +94,275 +712,548
31 193,667 6,951,349 287,699 7,757,929 +94,032 +806,580
August 180,518 7,131,867 259,986 8,017,915 +79,468 +886,048
33 186,164 7,318,031 244,078 8,261,993 +57,914 +943,962
34 176,652 7,494,683 318,227 8,580,220 +141,575 +1,085,537
35 238,915 7,733,598 281,818 8,862,038 +42,903 +1,128,440
September 253,320 7,986,918 274,211 9,136,249 +20,891 +1,149,331
37 249,325 8,236,243 247,966 9,384,215 -1,359 +1,147,972
38 600,282 8,836,525 238,932 9,623,147 -361,350 +786,622
39 472,720 9,309,245 236,479 9,859,626 -236,241 +550,381
40 326,090 9,635,335 241,032 10,100,658 -85,058 +465,323
October 285,064 9,920,399 247,868 10,348,526 -37,196 +428,127
42 299,832 10,220,231 247,875 10,596,401 -51,957 +376,170
43 301,671 10,521,902 304,866 10,901,267 +3,195 +379,365
44 366,383 10,888,285 291,483 11,192,750 -74,900 +304,465
November 399,646 11,287,931
46 590,632 11,878,563
47 616,220 12,494,783
48 1,852,859 14,347,642
December 1,182,723 15,530,365
50 1,356,224 16,886,589
51 1,532,176 18,418,765
52 909,543 19,328,308

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2020 XBOX ONE vs. 2024 XBOX Series Comparison

Week/Month '20 XB1 - Weekly '20 XB1 - Yearly '24 XBSX - Weekly '24 XBSX - Yearly (+/-) Weekly

(+/-) Yearly
January 91,800 91,800 95,418 95,418 +3,618 +3,618
2 62,438 154,238 78,086 173,504 +15,648 +19,266
3 59,383 213,621 77,226 250,730 +17,843 +37,109
4 55,028 268,649 80,956 331,686 +25,928 +63,037
5 54,301 322,950 86,831 418,517 +32,530 +95,567
February 61,339 384,289 82,591 501,108 +21,252 +116,819
7 61,161 445,450 82,546 583,654 +21,385 +138,204
8 61,125 506,575 87,651 671,305 +26,526 +164,730
9 66,979 573,554 87,606 758,911 +20,627 +185,357
March 107,660 681,214 82,043 840,954 -25,617 +159,740
11 127,237 808,451 73,805 914,759 -53,432 +106,308
12 126,409 934,860 74,597 989,356 -51,812 +54,496
13 122,497 1,057,357 71,566 1,060,922 -50,931 +3,565
14 125,015 1,182,372 73,913 1,134,835 -51,102 -47,537
April 152,091 1,334,463 55,666 1,190,501 -96,425 -143,962
16 149,981 1,484,444 56,456 1,246,957 -93,525 -237,487
17 136,460 1,620,904 52,062 1,299,019 -84,398 -321,885
18 110,402 1,731,306 51,406 1,350,425 -58,996 -380,881
May 97,068 1,828,374 55,947 1,406,372 -41,121 -422,002
20 92,852 1,921,226 55,144 1,461,516 -37,708 -459,710
21 87,800 2,009,026 59,145 1,520,661 -28,655 -488,365
22 82,190 2,091,216 60,913 1,581,574 -21,277 -509,642
June 71,819 2,163,035 59,167 1,640,741 -12,652 -522,294
24 69,552 2,232,587 63,018 1,703,759 -6,534 -528,828
25 67,196 2,299,783 65,248 1,769,007 -1,948 -530,776
26 65,150 2,364,933 66,666 1,835,673 +1,516 -529,260
July 57,321 2,422,254 68,863 1,904,536 +11,542 -517,718
28 52,228 2,474,482 77,523 1,982,059 +25,295 -492,423
29 47,087 2,521,569 118,928 2,100,987 +71,841 -420,582
30 45,238 2,566,807 115,320 2,216,307 +70,082 -350,500
31 43,271 2,610,078 112,099 2,328,406 +68,828 -281,672
August 43,904 2,653,982 78,292 2,406,698 +34,388 -247,284
33 37,832 2,691,814 68,337 2,475,035 +30,505 -216,779
34 38,192 2,730,006 66,508 2,541,543 +28,316 -188,463
35 38,752 2,768,758 72,393 2,613,936 +33,641 -154,822
September 39,957 2,808,715 64,580 2,678,516 +24,623 -130,199
37 45,310 2,854,025 61,862 2,740,378 +16,552 -113,647
38 43,341 2,897,366 60,069 2,800,447 +16,728 -96,919
39 44,381 2,941,747 61,920 2,862,367 +17,539 -79,380
40 43,994 2,985,741 66,056 2,928,423 +22,062 -57,318
October 43,743 3,029,484 63,570 2,991,993 +19,827 -37,491
42 42,795 3,072,279 78,975 3,070,968 +36,180 -1,311
43 43,849 3,116,128 88,223 3,159,191 +44,374 +43,063
44 45,516 3,161,644 85,856 3,245,047 +40,340 +83,403
November 51,036 3,212,680
46 59,788 3,272,468
47 69,061 3,341,529
48 123,737 3,465,266
December 111,409 3,576,675
50 111,166 3,687,841
51 125,592 3,813,433
52 95,195 3,908,628
53 42,914 3,951,542

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Poll from July 2024:

Poll from April 2024:

Poll from January 2024:

Last edited by XtremeBG - 54 minutes ago

My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 2022 / 2021

Global LT Showdown / Regional LT Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart / Quantity of Games

Around the Network
HigHurtenflurst on 14 January 2024

Last three are good picks, pretty much what I expect the sales ranges to be:
Switch: 10-12m
PS5: 20-23m
XBS/X: 6-8m

Maybe MS will do something crazy to increase sales but as 2023 year is looking to be a ~15% drop on 2022 year I don't expect it increase enough in 2024 to match Switch.

Last edited by HigHurtenflurst - on 18 January 2024

XtremeBG on 14 January 2024
HigHurtenflurst said:

Last three are good picks, pretty much what I expect the sales ranges to be:
Switch: 10-12m
PS5: 20-23m
XBS/X: 6-8m

Maybe MS will do something crazy to increase sales but as this year is looking to be a ~15% drop on last year I don't expect it increase enough to match Switch.

Yep, the first one is only cuz I wanted 4th comparison, and wanted to be different than the other, so 24 vs 24, and the only ones that can be close were those. The other interesting thing about those is how the difference in sales might change down the line, as Switch probably will be weaker in the second half of the year, so we can see how the difference between the two gets smaller, and how and if the XBOX can pick up at least in the later part of the year or even if there are more months where Switch is selling while it's successor is released. (if they decide to release it earlier in the year)

I also think Switch will beat the XBOX this year, unless microsoft really picks up the game and somehow drive the sales to 10/12 for the year, which I see unlikely.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 14 January 2024

My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 2022 / 2021

Global LT Showdown / Regional LT Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart / Quantity of Games

Mar1217 on 14 January 2024

Good years of comparison for each sections. Honestly, I don't know if we'll see Xbox stagnating this year, go down or go up rather due to how volatile it's sales seem to be depending on the PS5 as well.

Switch rides along it's last full year on the market but will the successor be announced or kept hidden long enough ... This will affect the sales.

For the PS5, I'm looking to see if it's shipping ambition might lead to a weaker beginning of the year in sales or if it'll remain on the same basis as last year, which saw the end of the stocks problems. Does it have enough current demand to match the pent up demand of last year basically ?



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

DonFerrari on 19 January 2024

Checking...
Yes I think your choice for contenders seem very close to what we should expect for this year even if that means xbox have low expectations.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Around the Network
XtremeBG on 19 January 2024
DonFerrari said:

Checking...
Yes I think your choice for contenders seem very close to what we should expect for this year even if that means xbox have low expectations.

I also looked not only to be in the perfect ranges between top and floor, but also the competitors to have enough of a difference through out all the year, so it isn't like 1 line let's say till the half of the year. Originally before I changed the competitors it was like almost the same sales line till the first half .. With the latest ones, now all the comparisons have enough of a gap between them so that the top and the bottom one are different enough through out all of the year. I made the same change for the JAPAN one too.. Till the last year, I used to put only 1 competitor (till late in the year) and I didn't expected this problem when having 2 competitor lines in the chart, instead of 1. But it's now taken care of. I originally wanted the DS'11 for Switch comparison, but it was either only it, or two different ones, cuz the DS'11 was stronger in the first half and weaker in the second, and So all the other ones that sold let's say 12 or even 13M in the end, were almost the same line for the first half, cuz of the stronger DS'11 performance in the first half. It's 2011 started like it's going to be 13 or 15M year. And ended weak.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 19 January 2024

My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 2022 / 2021

Global LT Showdown / Regional LT Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart / Quantity of Games

DonFerrari on 19 January 2024
XtremeBG said:
DonFerrari said:

Checking...
Yes I think your choice for contenders seem very close to what we should expect for this year even if that means xbox have low expectations.

I also looked not only to be in the perfect ranges between top and floor, but also the competitors to have enough of a difference through out all the year, so it isn't like 1 line let's say till the half of the year. Originally before I changed the competitors it was like almost the same sales line till the first half .. With the latest ones, now all the comparisons have enough of a gap between them so that the top and the bottom one are different enough through out all of the year. I made the same change for the JAPAN one too.. Till the last year, I used to put only 1 competitor (till late in the year) and I didn't expected this problem when having 2 competitor lines in the chart, instead of 1. But it's now taken care of. I originally wanted the DS'11 for Switch comparison, but it was either only it, or two different ones, cuz the DS'11 was stronger in the first half and weaker in the second, and So all the other ones that sold let's say 12 or even 13M in the end, were almost the same line for the first half, cuz of the stronger DS'11 performance in the first half. It's 2011 started like it's going to be 13 or 15M year. And ended weak.

Yep, this change could give us some better visibility and fun on the first half of the year, and well if necessary on the second half of the year you may make some substitutions.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

haxxiy on 19 January 2024

PS5 ~ 20m, Switch ~ 10m, Xbox ~ 6m. This won't be a hot year.



 

 

 

 

 

DroidKnight on 19 January 2024

PS5 ~ 18m, Switch ~ 7.5m, Xbox ~ 9.8m.



...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.

Wman1996 on 19 January 2024

PS5 - 18 million
Switch - 8 million
Xbox Series X/S - 7 million



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 48 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima