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Forums - Sales Discussion - Ultimate Consoles Showdown 2024: August 3rd

 

How much will the Xbox Series sell in 2024 ?

7M+ 0 0%
 
6-7M 1 20.00%
 
5-6M 3 60.00%
 
4-5M 1 20.00%
 
Under 4M 0 0%
 
Total:5

This is the Ultimate Console Showdown comparison thread for 2024.

The battles for this year are as follows:

  • XBOX Series 2024 vs Nintendo Switch 2024 in USA
  • Nintendo Switch vs DS'11 (9.4M) vs PSP'07 (12.8M)
  • PlayStation 5 vs Nintendo Switch'19 (19.3M)
  • XBOX Series vs XB360'13 (6.3M) vs XB1'20 (4M)

*The target for all of the comparisons is to be as close as possible (and with that to give us better perspective where the given console is going this year) and to have good chance of finishing close in the end. Therefore if some of the contenders go way far one from another then, the contender's year, or even the contender itself may change so that it suits better to the given's console performance in 2024. Other thing is also I would not repeat main competitor (on the tables) from the year before from my thread, so even if it's a good fit, I would always look for a different one, so it's always new and fresh.*

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2024 Xbox Series vs. 2024 Nintendo Switch Comparison USA

Week/Month '24 XBSX - Weekly '24 XBSX - Yearly '24 NSW- Weekly '24 NSW- Yearly (+/-) Weekly

(+/-) Yearly

January 58,873 58,873 58,267 58,267 -606 -606
2 46,168 105,041 47,962 106,229 +1,794 +1,188
3 45,267 150,308 45,628 151,857 +361 +1,549
4 47,731 198,039 48,792 200,649 +1,061 +2,610
5 50,706 248,745 50,024 250,673 -682 +1,928
February 48,142 296,887 49,502 300,175 +1,360 +3,288
7 50,381 347,268 51,094 351,269 +713 +4,001
8 53,229 400,497 54,873 406,142 +1,644 +5,645
9 53,212 453,709 51,769 457,911 -1,443 +4,202
March 47,769 501,478 48,802 506,713 +1,033 +5,235
11 44,896 546,374 45,319 552,032 +423 +5,658
12 44,630 591,004 45,191 597,223 +561 +6,219
13 43,626 634,630 44,317 641,540 +691 +6,910
14 42,168 676,798 43,483 685,023 +1,315 +8,225
April 34,452 711,250 35,315 720,338 +863 +9,088
16 31,798 743,048 32,167 752,505 +369 +9,457
17 28,265 771,313 29,082 781,587 +817 +10,274
18 28,517 799,830 28,983 810,570 +466 +10,740
May 28,612 828,442 29,946 840,516 +1,334 +12,074
20 29,786 858,228 30,385 870,901 +599 +12,673
21 32,241 890,469 32,796 903,697 +555 +13,228
22 31,424 921,893 31,887 935,584 +463 +13,691
June 29,843 951,736 32,529 968,113 +2,686 +16,377
24 35,561 987,297 35,634 1,003,747 +73 +16,450
25 35,652 1,022,949 37,456 1,041,203 +1,804 +18,254
26 36,129 1,059,078 38,787 1,079,990 +2,658 +20,912
July 38,061 1,097,139 40,560 1,120,550 +2,499 +23,411
28 44,716 1,141,855 39,392 1,159,942 -5,324 +18,087
29 74,828 1,216,683 37,953 1,197,895 -36,875 -18,788
30 69,526 1,286,209 35,836 1,233,731 -33,690 -52,478
31 66,038 1,352,247 34,780 1,268,511 -31,258 -83,736
August
33
34
35
September
37
38
39
October
41
42
43
November
45
46
47
48
December
50
51
52
53

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2007 Playstation Portable vs. 2024 Nintendo Switch Comparison

Week/Month '07 PSP - Weekly '07 PSP - Yearly '24 NSW - Weekly '24 NSW - Yearly (+/-) Weekly

(+/-) Yearly

January 269,418 269,418 280,477 280,477 +11,059 +11,059
2 182,400 451,818 175,380 455,857 -7,020 +4,039
3 169,356 621,174 163,199 619,056 -6,157 -2,118
4 163,208 784,382 166,243 785,299 +3,035 +917
5 155,644 940,026 167,546 952,845 +11,902 +12,819
February 151,153 1,091,179 180,459 1,133,304 +29,306 +42,125
7 151,251 1,242,430 179,237 1,312,541 +27,986 +70,111
8 210,149 1,452,579 186,412 1,498,953 -23,737 +46,374
9 175,399 1,627,978 195,613 1,694,566 +20,214 +66,588
March 163,712 1,791,690 189,391 1,883,957 +25,679 +92,267
11 150,424 1,942,114 158,064 2,042,021 +7,640 +99,907
12 141,159 2,083,273 176,080 2,218,101 +34,921 +134,828
13 138,964 2,222,237 169,306 2,387,407 +30,342 +165,170
14 149,509 2,371,746 195,447 2,582,854 +45,938 +211,108
April 158,519 2,530,265 188,633 2,771,487 +30,114 +241,222
16 156,114 2,686,379 176,298 2,947,785 +20,184 +261,406
17 164,685 2,851,064 167,466 3,115,251 +2,781 +264,187
18 227,438 3,078,502 151,641 3,266,892 -75,797 +188,390
May 228,145 3,306,647 161,156 3,428,048 -66,989 +121,401
20 208,978 3,515,625 155,391 3,583,439 -53,587 +67,814
21 197,739 3,713,364 165,904 3,749,343 -31,835 +35,979
22 195,539 3,908,903 162,981 3,912,324 -32,558 +3,421
June 189,454 4,098,357 156,470 4,068,794 -32,984 -29,563
24 188,254 4,286,611 138,913 4,207,707 -49,341 -78,904
25 186,788 4,473,399 142,103 4,349,810 -44,685 -123,589
26 195,927 4,669,326 152,781 4,502,591 -43,146 -166,735
July 183,447 4,852,773 164,806 4,667,397 -18,641 -185,376
28 179,589 5,032,362 154,590 4,821,987 -24,999 -210,375
29 179,753 5,212,115 171,198 4,993,185 -8,555 -218,930
30 172,989 5,385,104 162,719 5,155,904 -10,270 -229,200
31 164,166 5,549,270 164,175 5,320,079 +9 -229,191
August 151,222 5,700,492
33 146,355 5,846,847
34 130,468 5,977,315
35 121,530 6,098,845
September 120,771 6,219,616
37 330,180 6,549,796
38 509,170 7,058,966
39 350,051 7,409,017
October 302,480 7,711,497
41 254,440 7,965,937
42 251,277 8,217,214
43 243,047 8,460,261
November 239,942 8,700,203
45 254,744 8,954,947
46 280,499 9,235,446
47 447,202 9,682,648
48 436,940 10,119,588
December 558,836 10,678,424
50 734,620 11,413,044
51 842,113 12,255,157
52 584,140 12,839,297

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2019 Nintendo Switch vs. 2024 PlayStation 5 Comparison

Week/Month '19 NSW - Weekly '19 NSW - Yearly '24 PS5 - Weekly '24 PS5 - Yearly (+/-) Weekly

(+/-) Yearly

January 422,991 422,991 303,314 303,314 -119,677 -119,677
2 261,313 684,304 253,968 557,282 -7,345 -127,022
3 239,630 923,934 290,554 847,836 +50,924 -76,098
4 223,917 1,147,851 271,694 1,119,530 +47,777 -28,321
5 243,086 1,390,937 251,157 1,370,687 +8,071 -20,250
February 246,901 1,637,838 291,014 1,661,701 +44,113 +23,863
7 245,603 1,883,441 311,534 1,973,235 +65,931 +89,794
8 236,788 2,120,229 328,675 2,301,910 +91,887 +181,681
9 256,993 2,377,222 343,691 2,645,601 +86,698 +268,379
March 243,351 2,620,573 269,607 2,915,208 +26,256 +294,635
11 222,088 2,842,661 269,509 3,184,717 +47,421 +342,056
12 219,395 3,062,056 263,398 3,448,115 +44,003 +386,059
13 224,764 3,286,820 246,945 3,695,060 +22,181 +408,240
14 197,196 3,484,016 244,476 3,939,536 +47,280 +455,520
April 210,035 3,694,051 201,545 4,141,081 -8,490 +447,030
16 185,560 3,879,611 182,774 4,323,855 -2,786 +444,244
17 192,442 4,072,053 194,704 4,518,559 +2,262 +446,506
18 192,284 4,264,337 202,192 4,720,751 +9,908 +456,414
May 186,628 4,450,965 191,321 4,912,072 +4,693 +461,107
20 166,937 4,617,902 179,727 5,091,799 +12,790 +473,897
21 174,689 4,792,591 188,209 5,280,008 +13,520 +487,417
22 180,828 4,973,419 213,050 5,493,058 +32,222 +519,639
June 191,428 5,164,847 203,489 5,696,547 +12,061 +531,700
24 209,397 5,374,244 202,786 5,899,333 -6,611 +525,089
25 209,000 5,583,244 191,519 6,090,852 -17,481 +507,608
26 290,267 5,873,511 194,961 6,285,813 -95,306 +412,302
July 245,075 6,118,586 199,460 6,485,273 -45,615 +366,687
28 226,783 6,345,369 205,134 6,690,407 -21,649 +345,038
29 211,210 6,556,579 272,045 6,962,452 +60,835 +405,873
30 201,103 6,757,682 244,378 7,206,830 +43,275 +449,148
31 193,667 6,951,349 241,699 7,448,529 +48,032 +497,180
August 180,518 7,131,867
33 186,164 7,318,031
34 176,652 7,494,683
35 238,915 7,733,598
September 253,320 7,986,918
37 249,325 8,236,243
38 600,282 8,836,525
39 472,720 9,309,245
October 326,090 9,635,335
41 285,064 9,920,399
42 299,832 10,220,231
43 301,671 10,521,902
November 366,383 10,888,285
45 399,646 11,287,931
46 590,632 11,878,563
47 616,220 12,494,783
48 1,852,859 14,347,642
December 1,182,723 15,530,365
50 1,356,224 16,886,589
51 1,532,176 18,418,765
52 909,543 19,328,308

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2020 XBOX ONE vs. 2024 XBOX Series Comparison

Week/Month '20 XB1 - Weekly '20 XB1 - Yearly '24 XBSX - Weekly '24 XBSX - Yearly (+/-) Weekly

(+/-) Yearly

January 91,800 91,800 98,618 98,618 +6,818 +6,818
2 62,438 154,238 80,086 178,704 +17,648 +24,466
3 59,383 213,621 79,226 257,930 +19,843 +44,309
4 55,028 268,649 83,856 341,786 +28,828 +73,137
5 54,301 322,950 90,531 432,317 +36,230 +109,367
February 61,339 384,289 84,991 517,308 +23,652 +133,019
7 61,161 445,450 84,646 601,954 +23,485 +156,504
8 61,125 506,575 91,251 693,205 +30,126 +186,630
9 66,979 573,554 90,906 784,111 +23,927 +210,557
March 107,660 681,214 85,543 869,654 -22,117 +188,440
11 127,237 808,451 75,805 945,459 -51,432 +137,008
12 126,409 934,860 76,697 1,022,156 -49,712 +87,296
13 122,497 1,057,357 74,566 1,096,722 -47,931 +39,365
14 125,015 1,182,372 76,313 1,173,035 -48,702 -9,337
April 152,091 1,334,463 59,366 1,232,401 -92,725 -102,062
16 149,981 1,484,444 58,656 1,291,057 -91,325 -193,387
17 136,460 1,620,904 54,262 1,345,319 -82,198 -275,585
18 110,402 1,731,306 54,606 1,399,925 -55,796 -331,381
May 97,068 1,828,374 58,647 1,458,572 -38,421 -369,802
20 92,852 1,921,226 57,944 1,516,516 -34,908 -404,710
21 87,800 2,009,026 62,045 1,578,561 -25,755 -430,465
22 82,190 2,091,216 64,213 1,642,774 -17,977 -448,442
June 71,819 2,163,035 61,667 1,704,441 -10,152 -458,594
24 69,552 2,232,587 67,318 1,771,759 -2,234 -460,828
25 67,196 2,299,783 67,548 1,839,307 +352 -460,476
26 65,150 2,364,933 68,566 1,907,873 +3,416 -457,060
July 57,321 2,422,254 72,763 1,980,636 +15,442 -441,618
28 52,228 2,474,482 79,323 2,059,959 +27,095 -414,523
29 47,087 2,521,569 121,928 2,181,887 +74,841 -339,682
30 45,238 2,566,807 118,420 2,300,307 +73,182 -266,500
31 43,271 2,610,078 115,499 2,415,806 +72,228 -194,272
August 43,904 2,653,982
33 37,832 2,691,814
34 38,192 2,730,006
35 38,752 2,768,758
36 39,957 2,808,715
September 45,310 2,854,025
38 43,341 2,897,366
39 44,381 2,941,747
38 43,994 2,985,741
October 43,743 3,029,484
42 42,795 3,072,279
43 43,849 3,116,128
44 45,516 3,161,644
November 51,036 3,212,680
46 59,788 3,272,468
47 69,061 3,341,529
48 123,737 3,465,266
December 111,409 3,576,675
50 111,166 3,687,841
51 125,592 3,813,433
52 95,195 3,908,628
53 42,914 3,951,542

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Previous polls:

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 21 August 2024

My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

Around the Network

Last three are good picks, pretty much what I expect the sales ranges to be:
Switch: 10-12m
PS5: 20-23m
XBS/X: 6-8m

Maybe MS will do something crazy to increase sales but as 2023 year is looking to be a ~15% drop on 2022 year I don't expect it increase enough in 2024 to match Switch.

Last edited by HigHurtenflurst - on 18 January 2024

HigHurtenflurst said:

Last three are good picks, pretty much what I expect the sales ranges to be:
Switch: 10-12m
PS5: 20-23m
XBS/X: 6-8m

Maybe MS will do something crazy to increase sales but as this year is looking to be a ~15% drop on last year I don't expect it increase enough to match Switch.

Yep, the first one is only cuz I wanted 4th comparison, and wanted to be different than the other, so 24 vs 24, and the only ones that can be close were those. The other interesting thing about those is how the difference in sales might change down the line, as Switch probably will be weaker in the second half of the year, so we can see how the difference between the two gets smaller, and how and if the XBOX can pick up at least in the later part of the year or even if there are more months where Switch is selling while it's successor is released. (if they decide to release it earlier in the year)

I also think Switch will beat the XBOX this year, unless microsoft really picks up the game and somehow drive the sales to 10/12 for the year, which I see unlikely.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 14 January 2024

My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

Good years of comparison for each sections. Honestly, I don't know if we'll see Xbox stagnating this year, go down or go up rather due to how volatile it's sales seem to be depending on the PS5 as well.

Switch rides along it's last full year on the market but will the successor be announced or kept hidden long enough ... This will affect the sales.

For the PS5, I'm looking to see if it's shipping ambition might lead to a weaker beginning of the year in sales or if it'll remain on the same basis as last year, which saw the end of the stocks problems. Does it have enough current demand to match the pent up demand of last year basically ?



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

Checking...
Yes I think your choice for contenders seem very close to what we should expect for this year even if that means xbox have low expectations.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Around the Network
DonFerrari said:

Checking...
Yes I think your choice for contenders seem very close to what we should expect for this year even if that means xbox have low expectations.

I also looked not only to be in the perfect ranges between top and floor, but also the competitors to have enough of a difference through out all the year, so it isn't like 1 line let's say till the half of the year. Originally before I changed the competitors it was like almost the same sales line till the first half .. With the latest ones, now all the comparisons have enough of a gap between them so that the top and the bottom one are different enough through out all of the year. I made the same change for the JAPAN one too.. Till the last year, I used to put only 1 competitor (till late in the year) and I didn't expected this problem when having 2 competitor lines in the chart, instead of 1. But it's now taken care of. I originally wanted the DS'11 for Switch comparison, but it was either only it, or two different ones, cuz the DS'11 was stronger in the first half and weaker in the second, and So all the other ones that sold let's say 12 or even 13M in the end, were almost the same line for the first half, cuz of the stronger DS'11 performance in the first half. It's 2011 started like it's going to be 13 or 15M year. And ended weak.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 19 January 2024

My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

XtremeBG said:
DonFerrari said:

Checking...
Yes I think your choice for contenders seem very close to what we should expect for this year even if that means xbox have low expectations.

I also looked not only to be in the perfect ranges between top and floor, but also the competitors to have enough of a difference through out all the year, so it isn't like 1 line let's say till the half of the year. Originally before I changed the competitors it was like almost the same sales line till the first half .. With the latest ones, now all the comparisons have enough of a gap between them so that the top and the bottom one are different enough through out all of the year. I made the same change for the JAPAN one too.. Till the last year, I used to put only 1 competitor (till late in the year) and I didn't expected this problem when having 2 competitor lines in the chart, instead of 1. But it's now taken care of. I originally wanted the DS'11 for Switch comparison, but it was either only it, or two different ones, cuz the DS'11 was stronger in the first half and weaker in the second, and So all the other ones that sold let's say 12 or even 13M in the end, were almost the same line for the first half, cuz of the stronger DS'11 performance in the first half. It's 2011 started like it's going to be 13 or 15M year. And ended weak.

Yep, this change could give us some better visibility and fun on the first half of the year, and well if necessary on the second half of the year you may make some substitutions.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

PS5 ~ 20m, Switch ~ 10m, Xbox ~ 6m. This won't be a hot year.



 

 

 

 

 

PS5 ~ 18m, Switch ~ 7.5m, Xbox ~ 9.8m.



...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.

PS5 - 18 million
Switch - 8 million
Xbox Series X/S - 7 million



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 48 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima