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Forums - Sales Discussion - Ultimate Consoles Showdown 2024: June 1st

 

How much will the XBOX Series sell in 2024?

7M+ 0 0%
 
5-7M 0 0%
 
4-5M 0 0%
 
3-4M 1 100.00%
 
Under 3M 0 0%
 
Total:1

This is the Ultimate Console Showdown comparison thread for 2024.

The battles for this year are as follows:

  • XBOX Series 2024 vs Nintendo Switch 2024 in USA
  • Nintendo Switch vs DS'11 (9.4M) vs PSP'07 (12.8M)
  • PlayStation 5 vs NSW'19 (19.3M) vs NSW'21 (24M)
  • XBOX Series vs XB360'13 (6.3M) vs XB1'20 (4M)

*The target for all of the comparisons is to be as close as possible (and with that to give us better perspective where the given console is going this year) and to have good chance of finishing close in the end. Therefore if some of the contenders go way far one from another then, the contender's year, or even the contender itself may change so that it suits better to the given's console performance in 2024. Other thing is also I would not repeat main competitor (on the tables) from the year before from my thread, so even if it's a good fit, I would always look for a different one, so it's always new and fresh.*

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2024 Xbox Series vs. 2024 Nintendo Switch Comparison USA

Week/Month '24 XBSX - Weekly '24 XBSX - Yearly '24 NSW- Weekly '24 NSW- Yearly (+/-) Weekly

(+/-) Yearly

January 56,873 56,873 58,267 58,267 +1,394 +1,394
2 45,168 102,041 47,962 106,229 +2,794 +4,188
3 43,267 145,308 45,628 151,857 +2,361 +6,549
4 46,731 192,039 48,792 200,649 +2,061 +8,610
5 48,706 240,745 50,024 250,673 +1,318 +9,928
February 46,142 286,887 49,502 300,175 +3,360 +13,288
7 47,381 334,268 52,094 352,269 +4,713 +18,001
8 48,229 382,497 54,873 407,142 +6,644 +24,645
9 51,212 433,709 51,769 458,911 +557 +25,202
March 41,769 475,478 49,802 508,713 +8,033 +33,235
11 36,896 512,374 47,319 556,032 +10,423 +43,658
12 41,630 554,004 45,191 601,223 +3,561 +47,219
13 38,626 592,630 44,317 645,540 +5,691 +52,910
14 41,168 633,798 43,483 689,023 +2,315 +55,225
April 28,452 662,250 35,315 724,338 +6,863 +62,088
16 24,798 687,048 33,167 757,505 +8,369 +70,457
17 24,265 711,313 29,082 786,587 +4,817 +75,274
18 25,517 736,830 27,983 814,570 +2,466 +77,740
May 25,612 762,442 27,946 842,516 +2,334 +80,074
20 26,786 789,228 28,385 870,901 +1,599 +81,673
21 29,241 818,469 28,796 899,697 -445 +81,228
22 28,424 846,893 29,887 929,584 +1,463 +82,691
June
24
25
26
July
28
29
30
August
32
33
34
35
September
37
38
39
October
41
42
43
November
45
46
47
48
December
50
51
52
53

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2007 Playstation Portable vs. 2024 Nintendo Switch Comparison

Week/Month '07 PSP - Weekly '07 PSP - Yearly '24 NSW - Weekly '24 NSW - Yearly (+/-) Weekly

(+/-) Yearly

January 269,418 269,418 275,977 275,977 +6,559 +6,559
2 182,400 451,818 169,780 445,757 -12,620 -6,061
3 169,356 621,174 156,599 602,356 -12,757 -18,818
4 163,208 784,382 158,643 760,999 -4,565 -23,383
5 155,644 940,026 160,946 921,945 +5,302 -18,081
February 151,153 1,091,179 171,859 1,093,804 +20,706 +2,625
7 151,251 1,242,430 173,537 1,267,341 +22,286 +24,911
8 210,149 1,452,579 179,812 1,447,153 -30,337 -5,426
9 175,399 1,627,978 190,013 1,637,166 +14,614 +9,188
March 163,712 1,791,690 183,791 1,820,957 +20,079 +29,267
11 150,424 1,942,114 151,464 1,972,421 +1,040 +30,307
12 141,159 2,083,273 170,480 2,142,901 +29,321 +59,628
13 138,964 2,222,237 163,506 2,306,407 +24,542 +84,170
14 149,509 2,371,746 188,847 2,495,254 +39,338 +123,508
April 158,519 2,530,265 177,533 2,672,787 +19,014 +142,522
16 156,114 2,686,379 165,198 2,837,985 +9,084 +151,606
17 164,685 2,851,064 153,466 2,991,451 -11,219 +140,387
18 227,438 3,078,502 131,641 3,123,092 -95,797 +44,590
May 228,145 3,306,647 150,156 3,273,248 -77,989 -33,399
20 208,978 3,515,625 142,891 3,416,139 -66,087 -99,486
21 197,739 3,713,364 151,304 3,567,443 -46,435 -145,921
22 195,539 3,908,903 148,181 3,715,624 -47,358 -193,279
June 189,454 4,098,357
24 188,254 4,286,611
25 186,788 4,473,399
26 195,927 4,669,326
July 183,447 4,852,773
28 179,589 5,032,362
29 179,753 5,212,115
30 172,989 5,385,104
August 164,166 5,549,270
32 151,222 5,700,492
33 146,355 5,846,847
34 130,468 5,977,315
35 121,530 6,098,845
September 120,771 6,219,616
37 330,180 6,549,796
38 509,170 7,058,966
39 350,051 7,409,017
October 302,480 7,711,497
41 254,440 7,965,937
42 251,277 8,217,214
43 243,047 8,460,261
November 239,942 8,700,203
45 254,744 8,954,947
46 280,499 9,235,446
47 447,202 9,682,648
48 436,940 10,119,588
December 558,836 10,678,424
50 734,620 11,413,044
51 842,113 12,255,157
52 584,140 12,839,297

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2019 Nintendo Switch vs. 2024 PlayStation 5 Comparison

Week/Month '19 NSW - Weekly '19 NSW - Yearly '24 PS5 - Weekly '24 PS5 - Yearly (+/-) Weekly

(+/-) Yearly

January 422,991 422,991 331,014 331,014 -91,977 -91,977
2 261,313 684,304 283,068 614,082 +21,755 -70,222
3 239,630 923,934 325,454 939,536 +85,824 +15,602
4 223,917 1,147,851 299,394 1,238,930 +75,477 +91,079
5 243,086 1,390,937 280,257 1,519,187 +37,171 +128,250
February 246,901 1,637,838 321,414 1,840,601 +74,513 +202,763
7 245,603 1,883,441 341,034 2,181,635 +95,431 +298,194
8 236,788 2,120,229 356,975 2,538,610 +120,187 +418,381
9 256,993 2,377,222 376,391 2,915,001 +119,398 +537,779
March 243,351 2,620,573 297,007 3,212,008 +53,656 +591,435
11 222,088 2,842,661 296,309 3,508,317 +74,221 +665,656
12 219,395 3,062,056 287,498 3,795,815 +68,103 +733,759
13 224,764 3,286,820 267,745 4,063,560 +42,981 +776,740
14 197,196 3,484,016 262,276 4,325,836 +65,080 +841,820
April 210,035 3,694,051 215,045 4,540,881 +5,010 +846,830
16 185,560 3,879,611 188,974 4,729,855 +3,414 +850,244
17 192,442 4,072,053 206,904 4,936,759 +14,462 +864,706
18 192,284 4,264,337 214,392 5,151,151 +22,108 +886,814
May 186,628 4,450,965 202,721 5,353,872 +16,093 +902,907
20 166,937 4,617,902 189,127 5,542,999 +22,190 +925,097
21 174,689 4,792,591 197,609 5,740,608 +22,920 +948,017
22 180,828 4,973,419 224,450 5,965,058 +43,622 +991,639
June 191,428 5,164,847
24 209,397 5,374,244
25 209,000 5,583,244
26 290,267 5,873,511
July 245,075 6,118,586
28 226,783 6,345,369
29 211,210 6,556,579
30 201,103 6,757,682
August 193,667 6,951,349
32 180,518 7,131,867
33 186,164 7,318,031
34 176,652 7,494,683
35 238,915 7,733,598
September 253,320 7,986,918
37 249,325 8,236,243
38 600,282 8,836,525
39 472,720 9,309,245
October 326,090 9,635,335
41 285,064 9,920,399
42 299,832 10,220,231
43 301,671 10,521,902
November 366,383 10,888,285
45 399,646 11,287,931
46 590,632 11,878,563
47 616,220 12,494,783
48 1,852,859 14,347,642
December 1,182,723 15,530,365
50 1,356,224 16,886,589
51 1,532,176 18,418,765
52 909,543 19,328,308

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2020 XBOX ONE vs. 2024 XBOX Series Comparison

Week/Month '20 XB1 - Weekly '20 XB1 - Yearly '24 XBSX - Weekly '24 XBSX - Yearly (+/-) Weekly

(+/-) Yearly

January 91,800 91,800 91,946 91,946 146 +146
2 62,438 154,238 75,172 167,118 12,734 +12,880
3 59,383 213,621 73,388 240,506 14,005 +26,885
4 55,028 268,649 78,482 318,988 23,454 +50,339
5 54,301 322,950 84,331 403,319 30,030 +80,369
February 61,339 384,289 77,791 481,110 16,452 +96,821
7 61,161 445,450 78,546 559,656 17,385 +114,206
8 61,125 506,575 81,551 641,207 20,426 +134,632
9 66,979 573,554 86,806 728,013 19,827 +154,459
March 107,660 681,214 75,543 803,556 -32,117 +122,342
11 127,237 808,451 66,605 870,161 -60,632 +61,710
12 126,409 934,860 69,505 939,666 -56,904 +4,806
13 122,497 1,057,357 66,366 1,006,032 -56,131 -51,325
14 125,015 1,182,372 72,113 1,078,145 -52,902 -104,227
April 152,091 1,334,463 53,086 1,131,231 -99,005 -203,232
16 149,981 1,484,444 51,156 1,182,387 -98,825 -302,057
17 136,460 1,620,904 51,262 1,233,649 -85,198 -387,255
18 110,402 1,731,306 52,606 1,286,255 -57,796 -445,051
May 97,068 1,828,374 55,647 1,341,902 -41,421 -486,472
20 92,852 1,921,226 55,144 1,397,046 -37,708 -524,180
21 87,800 2,009,026 59,645 1,456,691 -28,155 -552,335
22 82,190 2,091,216 62,713 1,519,404 -19,477 -571,812
June 71,819 2,163,035
24 69,552 2,232,587
25 67,196 2,299,783
26 65,150 2,364,933
27 57,321 2,422,254
July 52,228 2,474,482
29 47,087 2,521,569
30 45,238 2,566,807
31 43,271 2,610,078
August 43,904 2,653,982
33 37,832 2,691,814
34 38,192 2,730,006
35 38,752 2,768,758
36 39,957 2,808,715
September 45,310 2,854,025
38 43,341 2,897,366
39 44,381 2,941,747
38 43,994 2,985,741
October 43,743 3,029,484
42 42,795 3,072,279
43 43,849 3,116,128
44 45,516 3,161,644
November 51,036 3,212,680
46 59,788 3,272,468
47 69,061 3,341,529
48 123,737 3,465,266
December 111,409 3,576,675
50 111,166 3,687,841
51 125,592 3,813,433
52 95,195 3,908,628
53 42,914 3,951,542

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Previous polls:

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 11 July 2024

My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

Around the Network

Last three are good picks, pretty much what I expect the sales ranges to be:
Switch: 10-12m
PS5: 20-23m
XBS/X: 6-8m

Maybe MS will do something crazy to increase sales but as 2023 year is looking to be a ~15% drop on 2022 year I don't expect it increase enough in 2024 to match Switch.

Last edited by HigHurtenflurst - on 18 January 2024

HigHurtenflurst said:

Last three are good picks, pretty much what I expect the sales ranges to be:
Switch: 10-12m
PS5: 20-23m
XBS/X: 6-8m

Maybe MS will do something crazy to increase sales but as this year is looking to be a ~15% drop on last year I don't expect it increase enough to match Switch.

Yep, the first one is only cuz I wanted 4th comparison, and wanted to be different than the other, so 24 vs 24, and the only ones that can be close were those. The other interesting thing about those is how the difference in sales might change down the line, as Switch probably will be weaker in the second half of the year, so we can see how the difference between the two gets smaller, and how and if the XBOX can pick up at least in the later part of the year or even if there are more months where Switch is selling while it's successor is released. (if they decide to release it earlier in the year)

I also think Switch will beat the XBOX this year, unless microsoft really picks up the game and somehow drive the sales to 10/12 for the year, which I see unlikely.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 14 January 2024

My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

Good years of comparison for each sections. Honestly, I don't know if we'll see Xbox stagnating this year, go down or go up rather due to how volatile it's sales seem to be depending on the PS5 as well.

Switch rides along it's last full year on the market but will the successor be announced or kept hidden long enough ... This will affect the sales.

For the PS5, I'm looking to see if it's shipping ambition might lead to a weaker beginning of the year in sales or if it'll remain on the same basis as last year, which saw the end of the stocks problems. Does it have enough current demand to match the pent up demand of last year basically ?



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

Checking...
Yes I think your choice for contenders seem very close to what we should expect for this year even if that means xbox have low expectations.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Around the Network
DonFerrari said:

Checking...
Yes I think your choice for contenders seem very close to what we should expect for this year even if that means xbox have low expectations.

I also looked not only to be in the perfect ranges between top and floor, but also the competitors to have enough of a difference through out all the year, so it isn't like 1 line let's say till the half of the year. Originally before I changed the competitors it was like almost the same sales line till the first half .. With the latest ones, now all the comparisons have enough of a gap between them so that the top and the bottom one are different enough through out all of the year. I made the same change for the JAPAN one too.. Till the last year, I used to put only 1 competitor (till late in the year) and I didn't expected this problem when having 2 competitor lines in the chart, instead of 1. But it's now taken care of. I originally wanted the DS'11 for Switch comparison, but it was either only it, or two different ones, cuz the DS'11 was stronger in the first half and weaker in the second, and So all the other ones that sold let's say 12 or even 13M in the end, were almost the same line for the first half, cuz of the stronger DS'11 performance in the first half. It's 2011 started like it's going to be 13 or 15M year. And ended weak.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 19 January 2024

My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

XtremeBG said:
DonFerrari said:

Checking...
Yes I think your choice for contenders seem very close to what we should expect for this year even if that means xbox have low expectations.

I also looked not only to be in the perfect ranges between top and floor, but also the competitors to have enough of a difference through out all the year, so it isn't like 1 line let's say till the half of the year. Originally before I changed the competitors it was like almost the same sales line till the first half .. With the latest ones, now all the comparisons have enough of a gap between them so that the top and the bottom one are different enough through out all of the year. I made the same change for the JAPAN one too.. Till the last year, I used to put only 1 competitor (till late in the year) and I didn't expected this problem when having 2 competitor lines in the chart, instead of 1. But it's now taken care of. I originally wanted the DS'11 for Switch comparison, but it was either only it, or two different ones, cuz the DS'11 was stronger in the first half and weaker in the second, and So all the other ones that sold let's say 12 or even 13M in the end, were almost the same line for the first half, cuz of the stronger DS'11 performance in the first half. It's 2011 started like it's going to be 13 or 15M year. And ended weak.

Yep, this change could give us some better visibility and fun on the first half of the year, and well if necessary on the second half of the year you may make some substitutions.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

PS5 ~ 20m, Switch ~ 10m, Xbox ~ 6m. This won't be a hot year.



 

 

 

 

 

PS5 ~ 18m, Switch ~ 7.5m, Xbox ~ 9.8m.



...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.

PS5 - 18 million
Switch - 8 million
Xbox Series X/S - 7 million



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 48 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima