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Forums - Sales Discussion - Ultimate Consoles Showdown 2024: April 6th

 

How much will the PS5 sell in 2024?

22M+ 3 18.75%
 
20-22M 3 18.75%
 
18-20M 6 37.50%
 
15-18M 4 25.00%
 
Under 15M 0 0%
 
Total:16

This is the Ultimate Console Showdown comparison thread for 2024.

The battles for this year are as follows:

  • XBOX Series 2024 vs Nintendo Switch 2024 in USA
  • Nintendo Switch vs DS'11 (9.4M) vs PSP'07 (12.8M)
  • PlayStation 5 vs NSW'19 (19.3M) vs NSW'21 (24M)
  • XBOX Series vs XB360'13 (6.3M) vs XB1'20 (4M)

*The target for all of the comparisons is to be as close as possible (and with that to give us better perspective where the given console is going this year) and to have good chance of finishing close in the end. Therefore if some of the contenders go way far one from another then, the contender's year, or even the contender itself may change so that it suits better to the given's console performance in 2024. Other thing is also I would not repeat main competitor (on the tables) from the year before from my thread, so even if it's a good fit, I would always look for a different one, so it's always new and fresh.*

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2024 Xbox Series vs. 2024 Nintendo Switch Comparison USA

Week/Month '24 XBSX - Weekly '24 XBSX - Yearly '24 NSW- Weekly '24 NSW- Yearly (+/-) Weekly

(+/-) Yearly

January 56,873 56,873 58,267 58,267 +1,394 +1,394
2 45,168 102,041 47,962 106,229 +2,794 +4,188
3 43,267 145,308 45,628 151,857 +2,361 +6,549
4 46,731 192,039 48,792 200,649 +2,061 +8,610
5 48,706 240,745 50,024 250,673 +1,318 +9,928
February 46,142 286,887 49,502 300,175 +3,360 +13,288
7 47,381 334,268 52,094 352,269 +4,713 +18,001
8 48,229 382,497 54,873 407,142 +6,644 +24,645
9 51,212 433,709 51,769 458,911 +557 +25,202
March 41,769 475,478 49,802 508,713 +8,033 +33,235
11 36,896 512,374 47,319 556,032 +10,423 +43,658
12 41,630 554,004 45,191 601,223 +3,561 +47,219
13 38,626 592,630 44,317 645,540 +5,691 +52,910
14 41,168 633,798 43,483 689,023 +2,315 +55,225
April
16
17
18
May
20
21
22
June
24
25
26
July
28
29
30
August
32
33
34
35
September
37
38
39
October
41
42
43
November
45
46
47
48
December
50
51
52
53

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2007 Playstation Portable vs. 2024 Nintendo Switch Comparison

Week/Month '07 PSP - Weekly '07 PSP - Yearly '24 NSW - Weekly '24 NSW - Yearly (+/-) Weekly

(+/-) Yearly

January 269,418 269,418 310,177 310,177 +40,759 +40,759
2 182,400 451,818 189,580 499,757 +7,180 +47,939
3 169,356 621,174 176,099 675,856 +6,743 +54,682
4 163,208 784,382 178,943 854,799 +15,735 +70,417
5 155,644 940,026 180,946 1,035,745 +25,302 +95,719
February 151,153 1,091,179 191,059 1,226,804 +39,906 +135,625
7 151,251 1,242,430 192,437 1,419,241 +41,186 +176,811
8 210,149 1,452,579 199,812 1,619,053 -10,337 +166,474
9 175,399 1,627,978 214,513 1,833,566 +39,114 +205,588
March 163,712 1,791,690 204,591 2,038,157 +40,879 +246,467
11 150,424 1,942,114 169,764 2,207,921 +19,340 +265,807
12 141,159 2,083,273 186,080 2,394,001 +44,921 +310,728
13 138,964 2,222,237 179,206 2,573,207 +40,242 +350,970
14 149,509 2,371,746 205,397 2,778,604 +55,888 +406,858
April 158,519 2,530,265
16 156,114 2,686,379
17 164,685 2,851,064
18 227,438 3,078,502
May 228,145 3,306,647
20 208,978 3,515,625
21 197,739 3,713,364
22 195,539 3,908,903
June 189,454 4,098,357
24 188,254 4,286,611
25 186,788 4,473,399
26 195,927 4,669,326
July 183,447 4,852,773
28 179,589 5,032,362
29 179,753 5,212,115
30 172,989 5,385,104
August 164,166 5,549,270
32 151,222 5,700,492
33 146,355 5,846,847
34 130,468 5,977,315
35 121,530 6,098,845
September 120,771 6,219,616
37 330,180 6,549,796
38 509,170 7,058,966
39 350,051 7,409,017
October 302,480 7,711,497
41 254,440 7,965,937
42 251,277 8,217,214
43 243,047 8,460,261
November 239,942 8,700,203
45 254,744 8,954,947
46 280,499 9,235,446
47 447,202 9,682,648
48 436,940 10,119,588
December 558,836 10,678,424
50 734,620 11,413,044
51 842,113 12,255,157
52 584,140 12,839,297

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2019 Nintendo Switch vs. 2024 PlayStation 5 Comparison

Week/Month '19 NSW - Weekly '19 NSW - Yearly '24 PS5 - Weekly '24 PS5 - Yearly (+/-) Weekly

(+/-) Yearly

January 422,991 422,991 314,014 314,014 -108,977 -108,977
2 261,313 684,304 265,068 579,082 +3,755 -105,222
3 239,630 923,934 308,454 887,536 +68,824 -36,398
4 223,917 1,147,851 283,394 1,170,930 +59,477 +23,079
5 243,086 1,390,937 263,257 1,434,187 +20,171 +43,250
February 246,901 1,637,838 301,414 1,735,601 +54,513 +97,763
7 245,603 1,883,441 326,034 2,061,635 +80,431 +178,194
8 236,788 2,120,229 341,975 2,403,610 +105,187 +283,381
9 256,993 2,377,222 363,391 2,767,001 +106,398 +389,779
March 243,351 2,620,573 284,007 3,051,008 +40,656 +430,435
11 222,088 2,842,661 273,309 3,324,317 +51,221 +481,656
12 219,395 3,062,056 270,498 3,594,815 +51,103 +532,759
13 224,764 3,286,820 250,745 3,845,560 +25,981 +558,740
14 197,196 3,484,016 260,276 4,105,836 +63,080 +621,820
April 210,035 3,694,051
16 185,560 3,879,611
17 192,442 4,072,053
18 192,284 4,264,337
May 186,628 4,450,965
20 166,937 4,617,902
21 174,689 4,792,591
22 180,828 4,973,419
June 191,428 5,164,847
24 209,397 5,374,244
25 209,000 5,583,244
26 290,267 5,873,511
July 245,075 6,118,586
28 226,783 6,345,369
29 211,210 6,556,579
30 201,103 6,757,682
August 193,667 6,951,349
32 180,518 7,131,867
33 186,164 7,318,031
34 176,652 7,494,683
35 238,915 7,733,598
September 253,320 7,986,918
37 249,325 8,236,243
38 600,282 8,836,525
39 472,720 9,309,245
October 326,090 9,635,335
41 285,064 9,920,399
42 299,832 10,220,231
43 301,671 10,521,902
November 366,383 10,888,285
45 399,646 11,287,931
46 590,632 11,878,563
47 616,220 12,494,783
48 1,852,859 14,347,642
December 1,182,723 15,530,365
50 1,356,224 16,886,589
51 1,532,176 18,418,765
52 909,543 19,328,308

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2020 XBOX ONE vs. 2024 XBOX Series Comparison

Week/Month '20 XB1 - Weekly '20 XB1 - Yearly '24 XBSX - Weekly '24 XBSX - Yearly (+/-) Weekly

(+/-) Yearly

January 91,800 91,800 90,746 90,746 -1,054 -1,054
2 62,438 154,238 74,972 165,718 +12,534 +11,480
3 59,383 213,621 72,188 237,906 +12,805 +24,285
4 55,028 268,649 78,282 316,188 +23,254 +47,539
5 54,301 322,950 82,431 398,619 +28,130 +75,669
February 61,339 384,289 76,891 475,510 +15,552 +91,221
7 61,161 445,450 76,646 552,156 +15,485 +106,706
8 61,125 506,575 80,651 632,807 +19,526 +126,232
9 66,979 573,554 84,906 717,713 +17,927 +144,159
March 107,660 681,214 76,043 793,756 -31,617 +112,542
11 127,237 808,451 65,105 858,861 -62,132 +50,410
12 126,409 934,860 70,005 928,866 -56,404 -5,994
13 122,497 1,057,357 66,666 995,532 -55,831 -61,825
14 125,015 1,182,372 73,113 1,068,645 -51,902 -113,727
April 152,091 1,334,463
16 149,981 1,484,444
17 136,460 1,620,904
18 110,402 1,731,306
May 97,068 1,828,374
20 92,852 1,921,226
21 87,800 2,009,026
22 82,190 2,091,216
June 71,819 2,163,035
24 69,552 2,232,587
25 67,196 2,299,783
26 65,150 2,364,933
27 57,321 2,422,254
July 52,228 2,474,482
29 47,087 2,521,569
30 45,238 2,566,807
31 43,271 2,610,078
August 43,904 2,653,982
33 37,832 2,691,814
34 38,192 2,730,006
35 38,752 2,768,758
36 39,957 2,808,715
September 45,310 2,854,025
38 43,341 2,897,366
39 44,381 2,941,747
38 43,994 2,985,741
October 43,743 3,029,484
42 42,795 3,072,279
43 43,849 3,116,128
44 45,516 3,161,644
November 51,036 3,212,680
46 59,788 3,272,468
47 69,061 3,341,529
48 123,737 3,465,266
December 111,409 3,576,675
50 111,166 3,687,841
51 125,592 3,813,433
52 95,195 3,908,628
53 42,914 3,951,542

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Previous polls:

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 04 May 2024

My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

Around the Network

Last three are good picks, pretty much what I expect the sales ranges to be:
Switch: 10-12m
PS5: 20-23m
XBS/X: 6-8m

Maybe MS will do something crazy to increase sales but as 2023 year is looking to be a ~15% drop on 2022 year I don't expect it increase enough in 2024 to match Switch.

Last edited by HigHurtenflurst - on 18 January 2024

HigHurtenflurst said:

Last three are good picks, pretty much what I expect the sales ranges to be:
Switch: 10-12m
PS5: 20-23m
XBS/X: 6-8m

Maybe MS will do something crazy to increase sales but as this year is looking to be a ~15% drop on last year I don't expect it increase enough to match Switch.

Yep, the first one is only cuz I wanted 4th comparison, and wanted to be different than the other, so 24 vs 24, and the only ones that can be close were those. The other interesting thing about those is how the difference in sales might change down the line, as Switch probably will be weaker in the second half of the year, so we can see how the difference between the two gets smaller, and how and if the XBOX can pick up at least in the later part of the year or even if there are more months where Switch is selling while it's successor is released. (if they decide to release it earlier in the year)

I also think Switch will beat the XBOX this year, unless microsoft really picks up the game and somehow drive the sales to 10/12 for the year, which I see unlikely.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 14 January 2024

My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

Good years of comparison for each sections. Honestly, I don't know if we'll see Xbox stagnating this year, go down or go up rather due to how volatile it's sales seem to be depending on the PS5 as well.

Switch rides along it's last full year on the market but will the successor be announced or kept hidden long enough ... This will affect the sales.

For the PS5, I'm looking to see if it's shipping ambition might lead to a weaker beginning of the year in sales or if it'll remain on the same basis as last year, which saw the end of the stocks problems. Does it have enough current demand to match the pent up demand of last year basically ?



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

Checking...
Yes I think your choice for contenders seem very close to what we should expect for this year even if that means xbox have low expectations.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Around the Network
DonFerrari said:

Checking...
Yes I think your choice for contenders seem very close to what we should expect for this year even if that means xbox have low expectations.

I also looked not only to be in the perfect ranges between top and floor, but also the competitors to have enough of a difference through out all the year, so it isn't like 1 line let's say till the half of the year. Originally before I changed the competitors it was like almost the same sales line till the first half .. With the latest ones, now all the comparisons have enough of a gap between them so that the top and the bottom one are different enough through out all of the year. I made the same change for the JAPAN one too.. Till the last year, I used to put only 1 competitor (till late in the year) and I didn't expected this problem when having 2 competitor lines in the chart, instead of 1. But it's now taken care of. I originally wanted the DS'11 for Switch comparison, but it was either only it, or two different ones, cuz the DS'11 was stronger in the first half and weaker in the second, and So all the other ones that sold let's say 12 or even 13M in the end, were almost the same line for the first half, cuz of the stronger DS'11 performance in the first half. It's 2011 started like it's going to be 13 or 15M year. And ended weak.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 19 January 2024

My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

XtremeBG said:
DonFerrari said:

Checking...
Yes I think your choice for contenders seem very close to what we should expect for this year even if that means xbox have low expectations.

I also looked not only to be in the perfect ranges between top and floor, but also the competitors to have enough of a difference through out all the year, so it isn't like 1 line let's say till the half of the year. Originally before I changed the competitors it was like almost the same sales line till the first half .. With the latest ones, now all the comparisons have enough of a gap between them so that the top and the bottom one are different enough through out all of the year. I made the same change for the JAPAN one too.. Till the last year, I used to put only 1 competitor (till late in the year) and I didn't expected this problem when having 2 competitor lines in the chart, instead of 1. But it's now taken care of. I originally wanted the DS'11 for Switch comparison, but it was either only it, or two different ones, cuz the DS'11 was stronger in the first half and weaker in the second, and So all the other ones that sold let's say 12 or even 13M in the end, were almost the same line for the first half, cuz of the stronger DS'11 performance in the first half. It's 2011 started like it's going to be 13 or 15M year. And ended weak.

Yep, this change could give us some better visibility and fun on the first half of the year, and well if necessary on the second half of the year you may make some substitutions.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

PS5 ~ 20m, Switch ~ 10m, Xbox ~ 6m. This won't be a hot year.



 

 

 

 

 

PS5 ~ 18m, Switch ~ 7.5m, Xbox ~ 9.8m.



...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.

PS5 - 18 million
Switch - 8 million
Xbox Series X/S - 7 million



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 156 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 48 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima