I also think it is realistic (and would be smart) if Nintendo will make a Switch mini/pocket. However, we came up with that idea before here on VGChartz forum and those knowing more about tech pointed out that you can't shrink the SOC of the Switch down in order to fit into a mini/pocket size Switch. Well, I'm not so sure if it's really impossible or feasible from a cost-value point of view but a Switch mini/pocket would definitiely sell very well.

Yes the switch will suprass the ps2 

I think I've pretty much established that I don't think the Switch will take the new #1 spot globally. I've said that for years and I still stand by it, and I won't spend 15 minutes reiterating for the hundredth time my reasons why I think this. But wherever the Switch ends up when the dust settles, the Top 3 will be filled by systems very close to each other in lifetime sales.

However, I did want to take the time to rebut the idea that the PS2 got a boost from people buying it just to serve as a DVD player. That's and old, old argument, and it never made sense to me. Sure, it may have swayed a lot of gamers as it could play DVDs right out of the box (the Xbox required an additional accessory for DVD playback, while the Dreamcast and GameCube had no DVD playback at all), which increased its value proposition for those in the market for a Gen 6 console, but I doubt many non-gamers would have bothered.

Now, I can only speak of the situation in the U.S., and it may have been different elsewhere (any non-Americans want to fill me in?), but when the PS2 debuted in the U.S. in Oct. 2000, it cost $300. By that point, DVD players had been around for a bit over three years (I already owned one before the PS2 released), and even in 2000 you could already buy one for half the price of the PS2. By time the PS2's price was cut to $200 (May 2002), you could buy a DVD player for well under $100. At no point during the PS2's life was it cheaper than the cheapest DVD player. Further complicating things was that even though it was the only console that could play DVDs straight out of the box, it did not come with a remote control, which would further add another $20 to the cost.

The idea that the PS2 was purchased en masse by non-gamers is just illogical. It was neither the cheapest nor most convenient option for watching DVDs. Regular DVD players did the job just as good if not better and could be purchased for far less money. Unless there's actual market research showing that non-gamers bought the PS2 en masse just for the DVD playback, then I don't buy that claim.

Also, why even put these asterisks next the sales of all these systems in the first place? So what if there were caveats? Lots of systems have caveats. Households bought multiple units of handhelds so each of their kids (or kids & gaming adults) could have one of their own. The 360 had the RROD issue in its first several years. The Wii was bought by a fair amount of non-gamers. The PS3 actually was the most affordable Blu-ray player by far back in 2006. The Switch got a boost from The Germ. So even if it is true that the PS2's sales were inflated because of DVD, so what? Either one system sells more than another or it doesn't. It should be a matter of academic curiosity, not part of a partisan pissing contest.

I think it hardly depends on Nintendo's next system and what it actually is. If they turn old Switch models into devices like the Playstation portal at home for the Switch 2, I can see them easily becoming the best-selling system with the Switch. Especially if they offer a new dock, with a simple USB type C accessory for the Switch and new joycons at a cheaper price point. If it isn't upgradeable or compatible, in any case it will depend on how popular the successor is.

We've all had our say in the multiple other threads on this topic already but here's something to think about:

The Nintendo DS was in production until 2014 (roughly 10 years). Nintendo has a big opportunity to keep Switch around for a while as a budget console with it making money for the company as a secondary system. In my opinion, the Switch brand will only strengthen with the launch of Switch 2 if the original is handled right (price reduction, greatest hits line) and if Nintendo continues to support it - even if it's just "token" support - for a couple of more years. Obviously, Nintendo has supported two systems before and Switch can remain viable for people not looking to spend a lot, kids getting their first gaming system, etc. The idea is keeping the Switch ecosystem going, making it easy for people who buy into Switch now to upgrade to the new line, possibly many years later for them.

The Playstation 2 was in production for about 12.5 years. If the Switch's life ends up being 10-11 years, then I think it will top the PS2 in the end... but it's going to take much longer than I thought initially.

Keeping a system around for a prolongued period after its sucessor, as well as giving it a price cut, is dependant on if other products still use the parts inside of it. Because it's only Switch, then it costs more to produce the components.
The manufacturing facilities want to sell as much as possible. The more buyers/they can sell in bulk, the cheaper it gets.

The PS4 never got that price drop that people hoped for after PS5 launched.
I believe a new PS4 Pro only costs $50 less than what PS5 Digital launched for?

It depends on 4 Major points:

- Nintendo Switch price drop
- Nintendo Switch New bundles and colours
- New Nintendo Select gamelist
- Cross generation games

It's beyond late, usually consoles decline quickly after the 5/6 year mark. But it's not impossible, and I don't think it's as improbable as some are making it out to be. Nintendo's forecast for 2024 FY is 15 million, which puts it on a slower decline than the last two fiscal years. Granted, it had a major release; but we also don't know what plans they have for the console now and after the launch of the next. Nintendo could:
1. Support Switch with Switch 2 software that has lower end performance and features. Treating the Switch 1 as an entry level console for Switch 2.
2. Release a cheaper Switch TV.
3. Price drops on the existing Switch models.
4. New incentives bundled with hardware (collectables, software, etc...)

New purchasers aren't necessarily going to want to shell out a premium for a new console just yet. One highly successful business model is to simply release tiers of hardware that effectively serves the same platform, just with lower performance on the lower tiers - this is done in mobile, professional computers, and home computers, and has been done so for decades. In fact, if Nintendo does this, and successfully pulls it off, my guess is Switch 3 won't anywhere close to 7 years away and we'll see multiple console tiers as a regular thing.

But Nintendo is unpredictable and their hardware R&D is a vault. We'll have to wait and see.

I think one reason the switch will surpass the ps2 is that both consoles were I production for over a decade.

I mean, DS was going for about 10 years; three years past the launch of the 3DS.  Were there other products using its parts?  And Nintendo stands to make far more money keeping Switch around than DS from online subs alone.

There's no way that Nintendo can't maneuver around a $50 price drop for all Switch models this year.  That would put Switch Lite in impulse buy territory, Switch classic at $249 and the Switch OLED still a full $100 cheaper than what Switch 2 will likely be.

Price drops aren't common anymore and they certainly won't help a system that nobody wants to begin with, but for a hit gaming system like the Switch, particularly when it has never had even one official price reduction, there is significant value there once it's cheaper.  By the time Switch 2 arrives, I believe a price drop for the original is inevitable.