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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Could the Switch surpass the PS2 in sales?

Chrkeller said:

I eat some crow. The idea of the switch passing the ps2 was laughable for me..... after seeing sales doing quite well still.... yeah I was wrong.

To be fair it was like that for most people before launch. Most people (including me) predicted the Switch would sell between 30-50M before launch with a good amount of people expecting GC or even horrific Wii U numbers again with the Switch.

There were a decent amount of more optimistic predictions though expecting 3DS numbers around 70 Million. But even the most optimistic predictions had the Switch barely reaching/surpassing Wii's 100M as virtually no one, even Nintendo, expected the Switch to reach PS2 numbers. Even Nintendo only forecasted the Switch to sell around 100M lifetime, and many people thought that 100M forecast was WAY TO optimistic.

I'll admit if someone told me before launch that the Switch would go on to outsell the PS2 I would've disregarded them as a troll or completely delusional, but here we are.

It's still impressive to me that the Switch not only outsold the Wii, but completely easily blew past it with so much momentum left. The Wii in its prime felt so huge like everyone had one and the hype surrounding it even to this day felt huge, it almost feels like the Wii as successful as it was sold more than it actually did.



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If the Switch ends up at a nice even 160 million (still think it'll fall some 5 million short), what are the odds Sony pulls a James Cameron and releases a couple of million units of a "PS2 Legendary Edition" or something?



 

 

 

 

 

haxxiy said:

If the Switch ends up at a nice even 160 million (still think it'll fall some 5 million short), what are the odds Sony pulls a James Cameron and releases a couple of million units of a "PS2 Legendary Edition" or something?

If they do I feel like the PS2 Legendary would be counted as a different console (like the Mini NES and the Mini SNES). If they release a PS2 Legendary, would they revamp it? Or just reproduce old units?



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Shtinamin_ said:

If they do I feel like the PS2 Legendary would be counted as a different console (like the Mini NES and the Mini SNES). If they release a PS2 Legendary, would they revamp it? Or just reproduce old units?

I'd argue it would have to be done with the Emotion Engine or at least have full console capabilities not to count as a Mini console-like, which might be more of an ask but still doable since Sony owns the patents/licenses for most of their earlier hardware + the optical media.



 

 

 

 

 

haxxiy said:
Shtinamin_ said:

If they do I feel like the PS2 Legendary would be counted as a different console (like the Mini NES and the Mini SNES). If they release a PS2 Legendary, would they revamp it? Or just reproduce old units?

I'd argue it would have to be done with the Emotion Engine or at least have full console capabilities not to count as a Mini console-like, which might be more of an ask but still doable since Sony owns the patents/licenses for most of their earlier hardware + the optical media.

I don't think it's worth the effort for Sony. I can't imagine they will be THAT butthurt because they are no longer No 1. 



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Fight-the-Streets said:

I don't think it's worth the effort for Sony. I can't imagine they will be THAT butthurt because they are no longer No 1. 

Probably not. It's not like Sony actually uses anything PS2 let alone sales numbers for brand marketing these days. If that was the case instead it could have happened, but only us internet nerds really pay any mind to this stuff.



 

 

 

 

 

Chrkeller said:

I eat some crow. The idea of the switch passing the ps2 was laughable for me..... after seeing sales doing quite well still.... yeah I was wrong.

To be fair, you were far from the only one.



@Chrkeller Here's a little compilation of other persons who were expecting much lower sales

Importing the Wall of Shame from the Switch prediction thread

Barkley said:

Too early to predict. 30-70 Million.

Your 100 million prediction is very unlikely, the Switch isn't going to be on the same level as the PS4.

Yeah, about that...

Darashiva said:

I think a lot of it is going to depend on how third party developers support the console. Right now its more or less staying afloat on the promise and strength of Nintendo games, but at some point it has to be able to attract outside developers as well. If it can do that, I can see it selling at least 50 million units, possibly a lot more. If not, then 30 million at best.

A lot lot more in fact

Random_Matt said:

40-50m

These 100m predictions!! Lay of the shrooms

What shrooms ;)

PortisheadBiscuit said:

30-40 mil

HEMSTAR said:

Way to early to call it but i'm guessing 25-40million but it definitely could be more.

leo-j said:

20-25M

Kaneman! said:

30-40 million I'd say, based off the current version.

Could be potentially more based on price cuts and revisions.

A bunch of lowballers...

0815user said:

below 20m

froster said:

Switch sales will end somewhere between 15 and 25 million. Never more. Because the technology is from the beginning too weak.

GProgrammer said:

30 million

Namiirei said:

19 M-26M.  35 millions maximum (1/2 of 3ds sales).

 

This thread seems like a copy-paste of the old WiiU predictions, with all these over-optimistic "predictions".

"It will sell more than wii"

"It looks like a Wii and ds combined together !"

It's just impossible for the switch to sell more than 3ds, let's be realistic here.

I expect a good 1st year with 8/10 M sold, then a hard fall after except in japan.

And some who were expecting something more akin of the Wii U, especially the last one...

Azhraell said:

40-45 millions. Bookmarking this thread to read again in the next few years!:P

So what do you think about your prediction now?

For the record, mine (from my old account) was more realistic but I was still lowballing in the end:

Bofferbrauer said:

I give it 130M and a long shelve life, thought the last years only as a pure handheld without a dock anymore. This includes 1 or 2 mid-gen upgrades and a plethora of different versions.

Edit: Where's the poll?

And a table to compare the different predictions?

Mid-gen uprade? Kinda.

Plethora of different versions? Also kinda.

Also, I expected the (not-yet-announced by that date) Lite to do much better at the end of the Switch's lifespan than it finally did irl.



Yes I believe the Switch will suprass the PS2. The main reason for this is like the PS2 the switch has been going on further into the next decade.



BiON!@