I agree that some Switch models will go away.

Honestly, I forgot about the SKU's.

When we look at the sales of the console over the last 2 years.
April 2022-Dec 31 2023

• OLED: 17.39M sold
• Switch V2: 9.54M sold
• Lite: 4.8M sold

Looks to me that the Lite and the Switch V2 are not selling as well and showing great declines each year, while the OLED is continuing to ramp up selling (in comparison to the other Switch models). I think that the Switch V2 will be dropped really quickly as soon as the successor launches. And the Lite will drop an SKU (obviously the least sold SKU, whichever that is). This is will allow them to drop the price of the OLED to a more Switch V2 price. The Lite will still sell due to being a very cheap and very affordable entrance option.

The OLED is carrying Switch sales. Dropping the OLED will be the quickest way to "kill" the console.

I think we when the successor launches (sticking with the $399.99 and $449.99 rumor prices) there will be

• 2 Lite SKU's (Blue & Gray)
• 2 OLED SKU's (White & Black)
• 2 Successor SKU's ($400 & $450)

Then after a year of the successor's launch they'll drop the Lite SKU's. And add more successor SKU's, most likely color variations, and more promos.
After 2 years of the successor's launch they'll drop the OLED SKU's. And bring a small successor, and later announce an XL successor. (Who knows).

My point being is that Nintendo won't stop producing OLED models for a while as they are the best Switch seller of the 3 models.

My favourite additions would be: F-Zero, Wave Race, Star Fox, Golden Sun, Earthbound and 1080°. Certainly, Nintendo will not release 3 racing games, F-Zero would be the one as Wave Race is not very well-known outside of N64/GCN-fans and snowboarding isn't that popluar anymore, so no 1080°. 

The Vita TV didn't work for many reasons, and more than just the Vita being a failure. The Vita TV was clunky to use on the TV, Sony was incredibly lazy creating the Vita TV that they just shoehorned in the Vita OS that was built to be used on a portable console like the Vita on the TV and the OS clearly wasn't adequate enough for TV use making it feel clunky and weird to use on the TV. The biggest problem though was that most Vita games weren't even compatible with the Vita TV since many of the games required PS Vita-exclusive features like the touch screen which couldn't work on a PS3 controller(Sony definitely could've optimized it to work on PS4 controllers though since the PS4 controller had a touchpad, but refused to do it)

A Switch TV wouldn't have those issues, the Switch's OS is already built to be used on the TV and all games will be compatible for it.

While it's already implied by your post, I'd say specifically that the Switch is already highly successful as a TV console. Most polls out there show around 30% of users use the Switch exclusively or almost exclusively for TV. There is also the factor of having a cheap entry level console. But, I think Switch TV might work better as part of the Switch 2 lineup, rather than the Switch 1 - depending on Nintendo's direction - they might add some feature making portability options essential for some of their application - but if not, then Switch TV seems like a no-brainer.

I eat some crow. The idea of the switch passing the ps2 was laughable for me..... after seeing sales doing quite well still.... yeah I was wrong.

My expectation is that the Lite will be reduced to 1 color (and a small $20 price cut), the LCD model will run out of production in fall to make space for the new Switch 2 and the OLED will drop in price to match the old base model in return.

This seems like the logical solution, maybe two colour variants for the Light model will remain, one for boys and one for girls. I've noticed that in Japan, the Light model has started to sell better than the LCD model whereas in the West the LCD model still outsells the Light. From a sales perspective it wouldn't make sense to kill off the LCD model, however, bringing the OLED model down to the same price as the LCD model, it will be a no brainer that the LCD model will be obsolete. The problem is that the OLED model is still kind of expensive to produce for Nintendo, so I'm not sure if they really can bring down the price that much already in 2024.

Another solution to save shelf space is to offer certain colour variants only online via Nintendo store or exlusive to Amazon.

Switch Lite to stay as the cheapest option to enter the Nintendo ecosystem, which of the OLED and V2 get dropped is a more interesting question.

We have to remember the people who purchased the OLED were prepared to pay extra to get something better than the V2, and potentially prepared to pay extra to get the best system Nintendo has to offer. So when the Switch 2 launches it is mostly from the Switch OLED pile (similar customers) we would expect the Switch 2 sales to come from. So if all 4 options were theoretically kept in the market, it might easily turn out that OLED (original) would slip behind V2.

But there is one other major point to set against that.. to keep suppliers on side, and their space in their manufacturing schedule Nintendo might want to keep the OLED manufacturing slots to themselves, rather than see them go to competing Steam machines, or another entrant in the handheld space. So then Nintendo might be best to keep the OLED model going until they can ready a Switch 2 OLED which they may wish to launch a year or two after the Switch 2 LCD.

My thoughts are they would ordinarily look to ditch the OLED, but keeping the manufacturing slot for themselves may be decisive, so wouldn't surprise me to see them ditch the V2 instead.

I wasn't talking about shelf space, but about production capacity, as the successor to the Switch will most probably come from the same production lines as the current Switch. Having 3 different models simply takes to much space on the production lines, so (at least) one has to go, and the LCD model would be the logical choice to do so imho.

Good point but I believe a lot of casuals bought the PS2 as well, a lot of the types of games sold were generally not considered main publisher games or were often money grabs a bit like the Wii, along with of course the main publisher titles.

At the end of the day, without casual+DVD type sales, the tie ratio may have been closer to 12-15. Especially since games were cheaper back then on Playstation consoles. I like Dulfite's 20-30million, it seems reasonable given how many ended up buying the PS3.