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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Could the Switch surpass the PS2 in sales?

The $257 build cost for Switch was reported back when it launched in 2017:

https://www.pcmag.com/news/nintendo-switch-build-cost-estimated-to-be-257

I mean, I wouldn't think it would still cost that much to make.



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Oneeee-Chan!!! said:
Shtinamin_ said:

Just looking at the past, we've seen Nintendo release console revisions once the successor releases.
Wii mini: Dec 2012, 1 month after WiiU released
SNES-101: Oct 1997,1 year after the N64 released
New Famicom: 1993, 3 years after the SNES released

So why can't we get a new revision for the Switch after the successor releases? Especially if they can produce a simpler revision with less components, like the idea of a Switch TV.

How much would you think they would sell it for?
It is about $257 to manufacture a Switch.

What? Is that the old switch model ?

Yes that was in reference to the Switch V1. And supposedly rumored to be ~$267 for the OLED but Nintendo refuted that.

Wman1996 said:
Tober said:

$257 to manufacture a Switch? That is more then I expected. There are also logistical cost to consider to get the console to retailers and obviously retailers would like a cut.

With this kind of manufacturing cost it's hard to believe Nintendo makes a profit on the console, but I always thought they did.

Given Nintendo operating profit of 30%+, I would estimate they make 10-20% profit on their consoles. On a Switch that would be between $30-60.

The $257 figure was from April 2017. Even with inflation, I'm struggling to comprehend that Switch is still $257 or so to make in 2024. If it is, no wonder Nintendo won't drop the price. 

With the latest shipment figures from Nintendo putting Switch at nearly 140 million shipped (a million or two above what I thought), Switch really has a good shot to surpass DS, and maybe PS2. We'll see.

Yes that is the April 2017 figure, no other website can given a recent manufacturing cost so I assume it still is near $257. They gained about $30 per Switch, and ~$80 per OLED, and had to be aggressive when finding people to produce material for the Lite.

My prediction for the holiday was 400k higher than the shipped total. So I feel pretty happy about that. By end of March Switch will have shipped 142.66M.

archbrix said:

The $257 build cost for Switch was reported back when it launched in 2017:

https://www.pcmag.com/news/nintendo-switch-build-cost-estimated-to-be-257

I mean, I wouldn't think it would still cost that much to make.

Well, during 2021 the price to manufacture actually increased, due to chip shortages, etc. So it may still be that close. But yes generally during the life of a console the manufacturing cost decreases.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Phenomajp13 said:

There is no such thing as a game designed for portable or console play. Any game can be played anyway you want. Portable platforms are just smaller screens than your TV screen. Some games may be more comfortable to play depending on your setup such as first person shooters being more comfortable to play on a larger TV screen or a card based game being more comfortable on a smaller screen with a touch screen but the beauty of Switch is being able to pick and choose. Yugioh for example feels far better on a small touch screen but that doesn't stop me from playing on my TV or Overwatch on the TV feels better yes but being able to play in my hands while watching television is very convenient.

There are obvious design differences based on format the game was targeting when it was designed. From screen space usage and UI elements to game structure sometimes. It's even more apparent if you take a look at Switch ports that come from handhelds and compare them to ones that come from consoles.

Look at how something like Rune Factory 3 or 4 uses screen space and their UI elements and compare that to Bayonetta 1.

Of course that doesn't apply to everything or that you can't play it in any way you want. Especially original Switch games as they tend take both into account since its a hybrid.



Shaunodon said:

Vita TV was for playing handheld games on a TV. Switch games are not designed just for handheld. In most cases it usually prioritises docked performance. Even if you're one of those who tries to belittle Switch as a handheld that plugs into a TV, the games themselves are primarily designed to be played on TVs as console games.

What an excuse. Vita was a failute, any version of it would sell even less. Around 20% of switch user's play exclusively in docked mode. Those people would have loved paying $100 less for the same product. What nnitendo should do for the switch 2 is both a home and a REAL lite version (not the fake lite they made for switch).

For the switch, a real lite for $199, dropping the prices of the other models to $249 and $299, then starting the nintendo selects program for their 2017-2019 tittles would already let them sail to 160-170m sales. 



Blazerz said:
Shaunodon said:

Vita TV was for playing handheld games on a TV. Switch games are not designed just for handheld. In most cases it usually prioritises docked performance. Even if you're one of those who tries to belittle Switch as a handheld that plugs into a TV, the games themselves are primarily designed to be played on TVs as console games.

What an excuse. Vita was a failute, any version of it would sell even less. Around 20% of switch user's play exclusively in docked mode. Those people would have loved paying $100 less for the same product. What nnitendo should do for the switch 2 is both a home and a REAL lite version (not the fake lite they made for switch).

For the switch, a real lite for $199, dropping the prices of the other models to $249 and $299, then starting the nintendo selects program for their 2017-2019 tittles would already let them sail to 160-170m sales. 

What would the real lite be?



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

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Shtinamin_ said:
Blazerz said:

What an excuse. Vita was a failute, any version of it would sell even less. Around 20% of switch user's play exclusively in docked mode. Those people would have loved paying $100 less for the same product. What nnitendo should do for the switch 2 is both a home and a REAL lite version (not the fake lite they made for switch).

For the switch, a real lite for $199, dropping the prices of the other models to $249 and $299, then starting the nintendo selects program for their 2017-2019 tittles would already let them sail to 160-170m sales. 

What would the real lite be?

Probably something pocketable like handhelds used to be. Vita and 3DS were barely pocketable but would fit in some pockets. Switch Lite doesn't fit in your pockets unless you have disproportionately big pockets or have a big waistline with big pockets. 

However, in response to one of the quotes, I don't see how a pocketable Switch Lite could only be $199. Even in 2024 and beyond, it takes a good amount of engineering to have Switch specs in the size of a smartphone with buttons. 



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 57 million (was 60 million, then 67 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

Shtinamin_ said:
Blazerz said:

What an excuse. Vita was a failute, any version of it would sell even less. Around 20% of switch user's play exclusively in docked mode. Those people would have loved paying $100 less for the same product. What nnitendo should do for the switch 2 is both a home and a REAL lite version (not the fake lite they made for switch).

For the switch, a real lite for $199, dropping the prices of the other models to $249 and $299, then starting the nintendo selects program for their 2017-2019 tittles would already let them sail to 160-170m sales. 

What would the real lite be?

A dockable one. Just make a smaller dock and use a cable for docking it, so the system can still be used as a controller.

Last edited by Blazerz - on 08 February 2024

Blazerz said:
Shtinamin_ said:

What would the real lite be?

A dockable one. Just make a smaller dock and use a cable for docking it, so the system can still be used as a controller.

Honestly, that sounds like a Switch, with just a smaller dock.

I was thinking that a real lite would be more handheld than hybrid, like the Switch Lite.
Here's what I think a real lite would be:
4.2" screen
HD
Non-dockable
Rumble feature
4-6 hour battery
Durable material, and feels durable (unlike the Switch Lite)
Fast reliable charging (Like 30 mins from 0%-100%)
Foldable and retractable cover for the screen as protection
More comfortable grip for ages 5-16 (maybe an optional adult grip version?)
$149.99

Essentially a DS-like Switch. Though I don't know how possible it would be to make all that fit. I can see this selling over 5-12M units.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Shtinamin_ said:
Blazerz said:

A dockable one. Just make a smaller dock and use a cable for docking it, so the system can still be used as a controller.

Honestly, that sounds like a Switch, with just a smaller dock.

I was thinking that a real lite would be more handheld than hybrid, like the Switch Lite.
Here's what I think a real lite would be:
4.2" screen
HD
Non-dockable
Rumble feature
4-6 hour battery
Durable material, and feels durable (unlike the Switch Lite)
Fast reliable charging (Like 30 mins from 0%-100%)
Foldable and retractable cover for the screen as protection
More comfortable grip for ages 5-16 (maybe an optional adult grip version?)
$149.99

Essentially a DS-like Switch. Though I don't know how possible it would be to make all that fit. I can see this selling over 5-12M units.

This would probably need circle pads 3DS style instead of analog sticks to make sure the cover would fit.



Tober said:
Shtinamin_ said:

Honestly, that sounds like a Switch, with just a smaller dock.

I was thinking that a real lite would be more handheld than hybrid, like the Switch Lite.
Here's what I think a real lite would be:
4.2" screen
HD
Non-dockable
Rumble feature
4-6 hour battery
Durable material, and feels durable (unlike the Switch Lite)
Fast reliable charging (Like 30 mins from 0%-100%)
Foldable and retractable cover for the screen as protection
More comfortable grip for ages 5-16 (maybe an optional adult grip version?)
$149.99

Essentially a DS-like Switch. Though I don't know how possible it would be to make all that fit. I can see this selling over 5-12M units.

This would probably need circle pads 3DS style instead of analog sticks to make sure the cover would fit.

True. A slim and sleeker looking Switch thats about the size of a DSiXL. or a 2DS.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.