It's beyond late, usually consoles decline quickly after the 5/6 year mark. But it's not impossible, and I don't think it's as improbable as some are making it out to be. Nintendo's forecast for 2024 FY is 15 million, which puts it on a slower decline than the last two fiscal years. Granted, it had a major release; but we also don't know what plans they have for the console now and after the launch of the next. Nintendo could:
1. Support Switch with Switch 2 software that has lower end performance and features. Treating the Switch 1 as an entry level console for Switch 2.
2. Release a cheaper Switch TV.
3. Price drops on the existing Switch models.
4. New incentives bundled with hardware (collectables, software, etc...)
New purchasers aren't necessarily going to want to shell out a premium for a new console just yet. One highly successful business model is to simply release tiers of hardware that effectively serves the same platform, just with lower performance on the lower tiers - this is done in mobile, professional computers, and home computers, and has been done so for decades. In fact, if Nintendo does this, and successfully pulls it off, my guess is Switch 3 won't anywhere close to 7 years away and we'll see multiple console tiers as a regular thing.
But Nintendo is unpredictable and their hardware R&D is a vault. We'll have to wait and see.
I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.
