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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Could the Switch surpass the PS2 in sales?

Shtinamin_ on 12 January 2024
Fight-the-Streets said:
Shtinamin_ said:

Honestly, it is very up in the air. But here are some thoughts

  1. NG releases in 2024.
    Switch will not surpass PS2 unless the price is lowered by $100 of each iteration.
  2. NG releases in 2025
    Switch will be able to, if the NG is backwards compatible, and the Switch iterations are $100 off.
  3. NG is counted as Switch sales, like how GBC sales were counted as GB sales
    Switch sales will be near 210M.
  4. Switch doesn't receive drops in price. It will not surpass PS2 and will end up at 155M max.

Switch needs to sell *on average 11.5M units for 2 consecutive years  (Switch has at least 2 more decent years left until it crawls). That will be extremely difficult, especially if the NG releases sooner than later.
Nintendo stated that they will be supporting Switch to at least a minimum of March 31 2025. So we guarantee another year and 3 months of Switch hardware selling.
Nintendo has also stated that selling 15M for the year will be a challenge, but it looks like it will land at 14M (as long as Dec lands near 135M).
I think Nintendo will plan to sell 10M for the following year. So after that we will be near 148M sold as of March 31 2025. From there it will need to sell another 10.7M. Most consoles sell for 10 years, but usually Nintendo stops production of the older console 3 years after the new generation. So we could see Nintendo still producing Nintendo Switch until 2027 or 2028 (depending on a 2024 or 2025 release date).
So after March 2025 Nintendo needs to sell 10M units until 2027. That seems doable, especially if the price is reduced. But all of these dominoes have to fall in order for 159M+ units sold.

*it used to say that Switch needed to sell 11.5M units in 2 years, now that statement has been fixed to Switch needs to sell on average 11.5M units for 2 consecutive years

3. has a good chance of happening. However, I don't understand why you give the New Switch only 60 mil max. sales? The New Switch will be market as a brand new system, only investors and nerds will know that Nintendo counts its sales numbers to the original Switch.

Also, in general, we should not think too much about what Nintendo did in the past, like killing off old consoles very fast. Its their first hybrid console and a VERY successful one. There's nothing we can take from the past. It's an all new situation with a new Nintendo President who's having his first console transition.

Honestly, I dont know either. I don't think I was thinking about what could be the max for NG. Hmmm, though if I were to think on it now, I think the NG would sell 128M. So Switch+NG would sell 287M units, and be over 20 years of shelf life. (I assume Switch will have a shelf life of 10 years, and NG would be more than 10 years). Nintendo is pushing the boundaries of how long a console life should become. I think 8 years of dedication will be the minimum norm for Nintendo, with 2 years+ minimum of shelf life.

Also very true, I was only using past information based on their last handheld, so if the 3DS (and other consoles) only produces for 3 years after their successor launches then the Switch should be able to go even longer, considering the huge fan base they have amassed. I was just doing the 3 year (2027/2028) because that (I think) should be the minimum norm that Nintendo will continue with.

This will be an exciting couple of years and the Switch was the tip of the iceberg.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

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JackHandy on 12 January 2024

If I were to bet real money on it happening, I would say no. Nintendo has a history of cutting loose and abandoning old hardware when the new iterations come out, and I expect the same to be true here. They like to put all their resources in the present and make the best product they can. I doubt they are concerned with the title of best selling handheld, which is worth only so much in PR.



IcaroRibeiro on 12 January 2024
Dulfite said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

PS2 tie ratio was 9.68 games per console sold

Switch 8.58 games per console sold 

Your guess do not look grounded in reality 

PS2 launched in an economically successful era. The housing market collapse didn't happen until 8-9 years after PS2 launched.

NS launched in 2017 and by the beginning of 2020 the global economy went to the toilet. Shortages, mass layoffs, stock market values plummeting, mass inflation. People got really picky on what they spent money on for 1/2 to 2/3rd's of the NS' life cycle, and yet it *still* came close to having a better games to console ratio than the PS2.

And that's without even going into the fact that towards the last few years of the PS2's life they sold it for dirt cheap so people would buy more games, inflating those numbers more, whereas Nintendo is still selling the NS at a large profit point per console sold.

If people bought it as DVD players the software tie ratio would be lower, as it means a piece of hardware was sold but not software was sold for thar hardware

Your point about economic crisis is meaningless, because PS2 have higher tie-ratio than any console Nintendo as well

People bought PS2 to play games. That's all



Phenomajp13 on 12 January 2024

Doesn't GameCube have a higher tie ratio than PS2?



Zippy6 on 12 January 2024
Phenomajp13 said:

Doesn't GameCube have a higher tie ratio than PS2?

Nope.

GameCube Figures from Nintendo:

21.74m Consoles Sold, 208.58m Games Sold, Tie Ratio: 9.59

PS2 Figures from Sony (March 2012):

155m Consoles Sold, 1537m Games Sold, Tie Ratio: 9.91



Console Launch Aligned Sales Charts

Famitsu Sales Database

VGChartz Monthly Sales Database

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xl-klaudkil on 12 January 2024

Since when is not cutting the price of hardware and software a good thing for consumers?
Sorry, nintendo make sometimes great games but there the most anti consumer company out of the 3.

Also, in the ps2 era gaming was a lot smaller then it is now, as a gamer it's a disgrace to try and decredit the beast the ps2 was

Ps2 was the most dominant console ever, and we prob will never see that happening ever again.

Let's stop this nonsense and keep on topic.

Ps: to my much suprise the ps4 has sold more games then any game system  ever(and still selling them)

Last edited by xl-klaudkil - on 12 January 2024

 

My youtube gaming page.

http://www.youtube.com/user/klaudkil

znake on 13 January 2024

Yes, Switch will surpass PS2



Spindel on 13 January 2024

It can beat PS2, it probably don’t and it doesn’t really matter.

But PS2 had a couple of advantages against the Switch sales wise.

-cheap DVD player upon release
-late in its life it was dirt cheap, Switch has not had a price drop
-a lot of people bought multiple PS2s because of disc drive breaking
-being on the market for 10 years
-south America



xl-klaudkil on 13 January 2024

Lol. A LOT and i mean a LOT of people bought multiple switches.

And the handheld only switch is being counted as a actual switch(which it is not)



 

My youtube gaming page.

http://www.youtube.com/user/klaudkil

Tober on 13 January 2024

The Switch has 3 models, taking into account the different colour variations that's 7 Stock Keeping Units (SKU's) without taking into account bundles or special editions.

If Switch2 releases in 2 colour variations again, then retailers will have 9 SKU's on the shelves with most of them the old model. Logistically that's not a good situation to be in.

I think this will change. The number of SKU's for the current Switch will be brought back to 2 or 3 at the most for logistical reasons.

With Switch2 being rumored to debut at $400, they have to keep providing an entry level model. I cannot imagine parents buying multiple $400 consoles for their 8 year old kids.

I could imagine a Switch mini/pocket being introduced to replace the current SKU's. Think Switch without dock for $200. and sell dock separately. After Super Famicom was introduced Famicom stayed on the shelves for years at half the price of the newer model.

If such a new budget Switch SKU would be introduced, I can see it adding another 15-20 million lifetime sales and Switch would surpass PS2.