I want to see Alan Wake II getting some of the awards. It may not win the GOTY, but I can see it winning some categories.

As for GOTY... I think Baldur's Gate 3 deserves to win just because of how ambitious it is.

Baldur's Gate 3
Zelda TotK
Spider-Man 2
Super Mario Wonder or Alan Wake 2
Starfield
Sea of Stars

Starfield is thee Xbox exclusive of the year, while Sea of Stars is the indie representative. So I think both will be prioritized over multiplats that are arguably more popular or better received.

RE4 is penalized for being a Remake. FFXVI's "Playstation representation" is challenged by Spider-Man 2 which I think is one of the 3 guaranteed nominees. And Street Fighter 6 is from an unpopular genre.

- Zelda TOTK
- Baldurs Gate III
- Super Mario Wonder
- Spider-Man 2
- Starfield
- Final Fantasy XVI

I made a prediction a month ago which I mostly stick to, but I do think Wonder's reception has given it a very good shot at taking a spot so right now I would say:

• Baldur's Gate 3
• Tears of the Kingdom
• Marvel's Spider-Man 2
• Resident Evil 4 Remake
• Starfield
• Super Mario Bros. Wonder

Roughly in order of how certain they are. Wildcards would be Alan Wake 2, Diablo IV and Hogwarts Legacy.

Zelda TOTK
Baldurs Gate 3
Marvels Spider Man 2
Street Fighter VI
Super Mario Wonder
Starfield

Winner: Either LoZ TotK or Baldur's Gate.

There are several really obvious choices that'll almost certainly make the cut, like Tears of the Kingdom, Baldur's Gate III, and probably Spider Man 2 as the main PlayStation representative. One thing a lot of people might be overlooking is the fact that for the last five years there has always been at least one non-AAA game on the shortlist (Stray, It Takes Two, Hades, Outer Worlds), and I would expect that to continue this year as well. However, there doesn't seem to be that one huge indie hit this year that would make for an obvious candidate. Sea of Stars and Hi-Fi Rush have a shot I think, but it could be something entirely different as well, Cocoon for example.

Super Mario Wonder obviously has a chance since it's a new highly reviewed Mario game, Alan Wake II could make the list, as could Street Fighter VI. FFXVI is my personal GOTY, but I think it's a bit of an outside choice here. Starfield definitely could get a nomination despite the somewhat divisive reception it's gotten.

I'll go with:
Baldur's Gate III
Tears of the Kingdom
Spider Man 2
Street Fighter VI
Hi-Fi Rush
and the last spot either for FFXVI or Super Mario Wonder

Zelda Tears of the Kingdom
Baldur's Gate III
Spider-Man 2
Street Fighter VI
Final Fantasy XVI
Super Mario Bros Wonder

Winner will likely be either Zelda ToTK or Spider-Man 2.

Street Fighter VI and Final Fantasy XVI has the least chance of winning.

Mine (as of now lol) is Super Mario Bros Wonder.

ToTK
Baldur's Gate 3
Mario Wonder
Spiderman 2
Sea of Stars
Alan Wake 2

I think Baldur's Gate 3 takes the prize.

RE4/Spidey/TOTK/SMB Wonder/AW2 or Starfield/BG3

Don't think there'll be a spot for indies this year.

I think Baldur's Gate, Zelda TOTK, and Diablo 4 are the only guaranteed nominations. Hi-Fi Rush deserves a nod. Resident Evil 4 deserves it, but might not get it being a remaster. Street Fighter 5 probably deserves it, but it's a fighter that may have limited voters for it. They usually like to have at least one indie like game that could go to Cocoon or Sea of Stars. Mario and Spiderman 2 have a good shot of being on the list. I fee like Starfield has a 50-50 shot, just depends on the voters on that, it came out at a good time, so it's fresh in everyone mind.

Zelda TOTK
Baldur's Gate 3
Diablo 4
Mario Wonder
Spiderman 2
and either Hi Fi Rush or Starfield for the 6th spot.

Maybe take out Mario for Cocoon or Sea of Stars.