There are several really obvious choices that'll almost certainly make the cut, like Tears of the Kingdom, Baldur's Gate III, and probably Spider Man 2 as the main PlayStation representative. One thing a lot of people might be overlooking is the fact that for the last five years there has always been at least one non-AAA game on the shortlist (Stray, It Takes Two, Hades, Outer Worlds), and I would expect that to continue this year as well. However, there doesn't seem to be that one huge indie hit this year that would make for an obvious candidate. Sea of Stars and Hi-Fi Rush have a shot I think, but it could be something entirely different as well, Cocoon for example.
Super Mario Wonder obviously has a chance since it's a new highly reviewed Mario game, Alan Wake II could make the list, as could Street Fighter VI. FFXVI is my personal GOTY, but I think it's a bit of an outside choice here. Starfield definitely could get a nomination despite the somewhat divisive reception it's gotten.
I'll go with:
Baldur's Gate III
Tears of the Kingdom
Spider Man 2
Street Fighter VI
Hi-Fi Rush
and the last spot either for FFXVI or Super Mario Wonder
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