Personally I think there's definitely a pattern to which games are deemed "GOTY material", which probably stems from the fact that it's not really only a question of the "best" games of the year but also a question of "year-defining" games. The games that garner the most attention definitely have an advantage. In terms of genre I also think there are two that have a distinct advantage: cinematic story-driven games and open-world games. Looking back across the years a very large portion of the winners and nominees fit into one of those two. On the other hand some genres will almost never make the cut (hack-n-slash, fighting, adventure games, "chill games") unless they really become that year-defining game like Animal Crossing did in 2020.
Traditionally I would also say there has been a bit of a western bias with highly acclaimed japanese games getting snubbed to varying degrees, though it seems to have gotten a bit better over time with even a relatively niche game like XC3 getting a nominee last year.
As for this year I expect the list of nominees will probably be something like:
- Baldur's Gate 3
- Tears of the Kingdom
- Starfield
- Resident Evil 4 Remake
- Marvel's Spider-Man 2
- Diablo IV or Hogwarts Legacy
Starfield and Hogwarts may have scored "low" but they're definitely big enough to be year-defining.
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2024 OpenCritic Prediction Leagues:
