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Baldur's Gate 3
Zelda TotK
Spider-Man 2
Super Mario Wonder or Alan Wake 2
Starfield
Sea of Stars

Starfield is thee Xbox exclusive of the year, while Sea of Stars is the indie representative. So I think both will be prioritized over multiplats that are arguably more popular or better received.

RE4 is penalized for being a Remake. FFXVI's "Playstation representation" is challenged by Spider-Man 2 which I think is one of the 3 guaranteed nominees. And Street Fighter 6 is from an unpopular genre.