The only way this is likely is if it gets a Switch 2 port, especially if the port has new content. I could then see both releases reaching a combined 50 million.

I feel like 25-30 million on the Switch this late in the game is about as much as you could ask for. Maybe 50 million between the Switch/Switch 2 if the Switch 2 is another success.

hahaha EASILY do 40-50 million???!

lol what? Only two Switch games have managed (and will manage) to hit 40 million. Wonder is coming out with a year left in Switch's life, it won't hit 40 million at all, easy or hard.

30 million seems about right. 30 million is an insanely high number that probably only MK, AC, Smash, the two Zeldas, and Wonder will hit, no reason to say silly things like 50 million. It'll probably push around 20m this holiday season and I could see it adding another maybe ~7 million next year and then a few million more in Switch's post-life phase especially assuming next gen will be backwards compatible so some next gen owners will pick it up as well.

That would mean about a 1/3 attach ratio, which would be pretty insane. Especially when you consider that 150 million Switches sold doesn't necessarily translate to 150 million players as you have replacement units/upgrades/etc. Not impossible, but it would be pretty surprising. Mario Kart is the only other game that reached 50 million which launched very early on and has been bundled with the system most holidays. Animal Crossing crossed 40 million but it looks like it won't get to 50 million. If Wonder gets there it definitely won't be easily.  

2D Mario is big, but is it really THAT big? Especially so late in the Switch's life cycle? Honestly, I don't think we have a good precedent to follow. 2D Mario games are almost always released within about three years of a platform's launch (the NES, SNES, GB, GBA, DS, Wii, 3DS, and Wii U all follow this trend).

Wonder will easily pass 20 million, but 50 million sales implies years of legs that the Switch simply doesn't have in it.

Animal Crossing did WHAT?

Damn, people did have nothing to do during lockdowns, did they.

Can the OP please edit the original post with whether this prediction is for Switch 1 only, or combined with the Switch 2. It really completely changes the tone of this prediction if it doesn't include the Switch successor.

Naw we already had 2d mario on switch with 4 players. this might at best sell what mario odyssey did, but i expect no more then 22 mililion.

all people I know that have switch will buy it
This game applies for everyone , the gays love it, girls , kids , old men , young men , this game is coming for blood

Animal Crossing shipped 32.63 million from its March 20, 2020 launch to March 31, 2021.

I know Animal Crossing had the benefit of the pandemic effect but Wonder has a bigger install base+Mario movie effect so I don’t think it’s crazy at all to think it can outperform AC in a similar timeframe.

Assuming a November 2024 launch, Mario Wonder could be 35+ million by the time Switch 2 releases and 5+ million post-Switch 2 launch gets you 40+ million.