Please don't confuse my requesting clarity when a crazy prediction like this is made with my personal belief in the possible existence of a Switch 2 port.  The idea of a Switch 2 version has been bandied about throughout the thread before I entered and I just wanted to establish, on the record, what the actual prediction was.

im onto you JL

I know it will at least have the sales of $599 US Dollars.

Not sure why people are talking about AC as though that has anything to do with Wonder. AC was a unique moment. There is no game for which you can say oh well AC did this in 2020 so new game will do more. Doesn't work that way. A pandemic didn't just start with lockdowns this month with Mario Wonder becoming the game everyone is playing. Simply not comparable situations. AC selling 30 million in 9 months says absolutely nothing about what Wonder will be doing. Wonder will probably very quickly get to 20 million (like maybe this quarter), but then it'll likely be selling <2 million a quarter after that, and then next gen launches a year from now with almost certainly a new 3D Mario game and that'll be the Mario game everyone cares about at that point. Mario Wonder will probably be doing like 500k per quarter starting in 2025.

Will it hit 30 million lifetime? Most likely. Will it hit 35 million? Maaaaybe. Will it hit 30-35 million BEFORE the holiday season next year (I'm assuming next gen launches somewhere between sept and nov next year), nah.

It'd be cool if I was underestimating, but if I am it isn't likely to be by much. And please people stop saying AC did X so Wonder will do >X. Doesn't work that way.

Even if Switch hits 150m, that’s 1/3rd of the userbase so I don’t see it likely hitting 50 million. I also don’t see Animal Crossing’s success as an evidence for why Mario Wonder would do well. 

Animal Crossing isn’t a good comparison because of the nature of the game and unique historical reasons:
1. Animal Crossing was one of the largest cultural phenomena in video game history. It released during the Coronavirus era and became the way many people were interacting during 2020 and into 2021. This skyrocketed the game into selling (at times) faster than any other game on a single platform in the history of video games.
2. Animal Crossing is built for very longterm engagement, months to years. First, it’s the latest of Nintendo’s original casual game franchises where people are provided objectives to complete, then they logout, and come back later to complete more, new things scheduled each day. Second, it’s a sandbox game where people have an endless amount of things to do, personalizing the whole of the island to how they want, and even changing it up for the season. Third, it’s a social game, people visit each other, perform tasks and projects together, check out each other’s stuff, and share items and art with one another. Mario Wonder is a binge and finish title that most people will be done with it in a few days to a month.
3. The sales nature of the game is very different from Mario. People mostly want their own copy of Animal Crossing while Mario will be shared, traded, and resold in large quantities.

I’m not saying Super Mario Wonder won’t sell very highly, what I’m saying is using Animal Crossing as supporting evidence doesn’t really work because it’s a such a different situation and type of game. A better game to compare it to would be Mario Odyssey, NSMB, or Mario 3D.
Even Mario Kart is a different sort of beast as social elements lead to very long term engagement - across years (if my office lunchtime crowd is anything to go by).

I think people are trying to avoid objectivity to support a wished result rather than data-driven estimations. Why ignore the more reliable data? Why resort to looking at the patterns of how other games instead of other Mario platformers?

I’m not bringing up AC because they are similar, I’m bringing it up because a lot of people are using the argument that Wonder doesn’t have enough time to do 30+ million. AC did ~30 million in 9 months when Switch was at ~80 million, there is no reason 2D Mario can’t do the same on a 140+ million install base.

Sure, Wonder doesn’t have the covid lockdown effect but it’s the first 2D Mario game in over a decade, the first to break away from “New” series that had been around since 2006 and the first mainline Mario since the release of the theme park & the movie.

Since there is a 100% chance that Nintendo will release the game again for switch 2, then I think it has a good shot of hitting 50 million between the two versions, assuming switch 2 sells well. There is absolutely no chance of it getting there with the switch version alone.

35 million sure and easy.... more only if bundled

Not sure why some people think Nintendo will release it again. I'd put that at like 10% chance, not 100%. Assuming backwards compatibility there is no reason to release it as a Switch 2 game, and I'd put the chance of backwards compatibility around 100%. Anyone who will have Switch 2 can buy Wonder cuz its a Switch game. Nintendo brought a bunch of WiiU games to Switch because nobody bought the WiiU. Switch games don't have that problem. We will not see a similar thing next gen of Nintendo re-releasing last gen games because Switch games don't need that they way WiiU games did.

I think its very unlikely there is any sort of re-release for this game, or any Switch game, including TotK which lots of people just assume will get a next gen release for some reason. Probably at some point Nintendo will drop Switch games to like $30 during Switch 2's lifetime (if they don't do it next year to help Switch sales) and market that to try to get Switch 2 owners to use the bc and pick up Switch games like Wonder.

I wonder if Nintendo's original plan was to have Super Mario Bros Wonder's and Zelda Tears of the Kindgom's realease date swapped. That way we would get a Mario game much closer to Mario Movie's relase date, which could bring more potential buyers to buy Mario Wonder, and we would get a stronger title (Tears of the Kingdom) close to the Holiday season