Prediction: Mario Wonder 50m+ LT

[zorg1000]

Slownenberg said:

zorg1000 said:

Mario Kart was a launch window title which makes it a useless comparison. Let’s look at Animal Crossing.

launch-March 20, 2020

as of March 31, 2020-11.77 million

as of June 30, 2020-22.40 million

as of September 30, 2020-26.04 million

as of December 31, 2020-31.18 million

Animal Crossing did over 30 million in 9 months on a smaller install base, Mario Wonder isn’t going to  slowly climb to 30-35 million, it will do it before Switch 2 even comes out.

Not sure why people are talking about AC as though that has anything to do with Wonder. AC was a unique moment. There is no game for which you can say oh well AC did this in 2020 so new game will do more. Doesn't work that way. A pandemic didn't just start with lockdowns this month with Mario Wonder becoming the game everyone is playing. Simply not comparable situations. AC selling 30 million in 9 months says absolutely nothing about what Wonder will be doing. Wonder will probably very quickly get to 20 million (like maybe this quarter), but then it'll likely be selling <2 million a quarter after that, and then next gen launches a year from now with almost certainly a new 3D Mario game and that'll be the Mario game everyone cares about at that point. Mario Wonder will probably be doing like 500k per quarter starting in 2025.

Will it hit 30 million lifetime? Most likely. Will it hit 35 million? Maaaaybe. Will it hit 30-35 million BEFORE the holiday season next year (I'm assuming next gen launches somewhere between sept and nov next year), nah.

It'd be cool if I was underestimating, but if I am it isn't likely to be by much. And please people stop saying AC did X so Wonder will do >X. Doesn't work that way.

I’m not bringing up AC because they are similar, I’m bringing it up because a lot of people are using the argument that Wonder doesn’t have enough time to do 30+ million. AC did ~30 million in 9 months when Switch was at ~80 million, there is no reason 2D Mario can’t do the same on a 140+ million install base.

Sure, Wonder doesn’t have the covid lockdown effect but it’s the first 2D Mario game in over a decade, the first to break away from “New” series that had been around since 2006 and the first mainline Mario since the release of the theme park & the movie.