Did you think the same thing in 2011 when PS3/360 already had an Elder Scrolls game or in 2013 when they already had a GTA game?

I don’t think the argument that it’s “too late” in switch’s life cycle for such a huge seller is necessary a disadvantage here. The whole reason GTA V is the best selling console game ever is because it released at the very end of the 360/ps3 era when the combined install base for those two was over 200mil+. I see it as an advantage that Wonder gets to release on a 130m+ install base. I can see sales already being over 40m after holiday 24. From there I think another 10m or so lt isn’t that unreasonable.

And for the record, my OP is referring to Switch only. I don’t even think a Switch 2 port is that likely. The reason we got a million switch ports is because the Wii U didn’t sell and Wii U is barely less powerful than switch. Switch 2 should be a huge step up in power and Switch games sold through the roof on a huge install base, so there’s no need for Switch ports to Switch 2 nor will they be nearly as easy and cheap to do.  

I don't think it'll hit 50 million but 22 million seems to low. It'll probably be at 20 million by the end of the year.

It’s borderline absurd to expect any less than 35m at this point… people realize NSMB on DS and Wii both sold close to that right? And that was without the critical acclaim of this, a massive worldwide movie sensation, and the “Switch effect” we all know is real.

I just think now everyone wants open world now. that's what hot right now.

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe has been on the top selling charts almost every week for the past 6.5 years.  It took 6 years for it to pass 50 million sales, and it's sold about 4 million copies last year to get to where it's at.  Mario Wonder is going to do a quick 20 million and slowly climb to that 30-35 million total sales.  If the Switch 2 comes out next year and for some reason isn't backwards compatible it has no chance at 50 million.  If the Switch 2 comes out next year, is backwards compatible and launches with a 3D Mario that is going to slow down future sales of Mario Wonder.  If the Switch 2 comes out next year, and releases a 4k full retail version called Super Mario Wonder +, the base Swtich version isn't going to sell 50 million.  There are too many variables we don't know yet, and it's not going to instantly sell 50 million day one it takes time.

I'm confused. You are asking if people think its gonna be re-released as a Switch 2 game as well? I think we can assume Mario Wonder is a Switch game and not a Switch and Switch 2 game. I don't see any reason to think they will rehash the game for Switch 2, so pretty sure the OP means Mario Wonder as a Switch game will sell 50 million. People seem to be getting too accustomed to the assumption that a bunch of current gen games will be re-released next gen (see lots of people for some reason assume TotK is gonna be a next gen game as well haha), but Nintendo was only doing that this gen with WiiU games because nobody freakin bought those games on WiiU haha. No reason to re-release Switch games on Switch 2 when Switch was super popular and Switch 2 will presumably be able to play Switch games via backwards compatibility.

lol...methinks you haven't paid attention to either of these two 2D Mario games. One is mediocre last gen port with no hype, one is brand new game with huge hype. The mediocre no hype last gen port does nothing to limit sales of the brand new game with huge hype.

I think you are underestimating the Covid effect. AC was doing absolutely insane numbers that first year. Mario Wonder is not gonna have those sorts of numbers after the holidays.

AC was a cultural moment. Wonder may be an awesome Mario game coming after a super popular Mario movie on a 130+ million system, but it ain't a cultural moment and it ain't coming out during global lockdowns. Compare Wonder to other Mario games, comparing it to AC is simply folly. If you could just compare any huge game on Switch to AC then TotK would be looking at 40 million in its first 12 months since it's a way bigger game on a much bigger install base than AC was.

Mario Wonder is not Mario Kart and it doesn't have most of a decade to sell. It's not gonna be the cultural moment that AC was. It's not gonna have the game of the generation hype of TotK. We should be looking for it to pass Odyssey, but not a ton more than that. A year from now Mario Wonder is gonna be that cool 2D last gen Mario game while everyone will be crazy hyped up about the new next gen 3D Mario game having just launched or about to launch.

Mario Kart was a launch window title which makes it a useless comparison. Let’s look at Animal Crossing.

launch-March 20, 2020

as of March 31, 2020-11.77 million

as of June 30, 2020-22.40 million

as of September 30, 2020-26.04 million

as of December 31, 2020-31.18 million

Animal Crossing did over 30 million in 9 months on a smaller install base, Mario Wonder isn’t going to  slowly climb to 30-35 million, it will do it before Switch 2 even comes out.

I think people have to learn again how gosh dang powerful a new 2D Mario highly rated can sell, once again.

20-25M to me seems like the floor for this game, something that will be achieved before or at the end of this year.

30M-35M by the time the Super Switch comes in could be a reality truly. And even then, it's gonna sell still since the next console's gonna have BC.