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Slownenberg on 19 October 2023
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super_etecoon said:

Can the OP please edit the original post with whether this prediction is for Switch 1 only, or combined with the Switch 2. It really completely changes the tone of this prediction if it doesn't include the Switch successor.

I'm confused. You are asking if people think its gonna be re-released as a Switch 2 game as well? I think we can assume Mario Wonder is a Switch game and not a Switch and Switch 2 game. I don't see any reason to think they will rehash the game for Switch 2, so pretty sure the OP means Mario Wonder as a Switch game will sell 50 million. People seem to be getting too accustomed to the assumption that a bunch of current gen games will be re-released next gen (see lots of people for some reason assume TotK is gonna be a next gen game as well haha), but Nintendo was only doing that this gen with WiiU games because nobody freakin bought those games on WiiU haha. No reason to re-release Switch games on Switch 2 when Switch was super popular and Switch 2 will presumably be able to play Switch games via backwards compatibility.

zeldaring said:

Naw we already had 2d mario on switch with 4 players. this might at best sell what mario odyssey did, but i expect no more then 22 mililion.

lol...methinks you haven't paid attention to either of these two 2D Mario games. One is mediocre last gen port with no hype, one is brand new game with huge hype. The mediocre no hype last gen port does nothing to limit sales of the brand new game with huge hype.

zorg1000 said:
Slownenberg said:

hahaha EASILY do 40-50 million???!

lol what? Only two Switch games have managed (and will manage) to hit 40 million. Wonder is coming out with a year left in Switch's life, it won't hit 40 million at all, easy or hard.

30 million seems about right. 30 million is an insanely high number that probably only MK, AC, Smash, the two Zeldas, and Wonder will hit, no reason to say silly things like 50 million. It'll probably push around 20m this holiday season and I could see it adding another maybe ~7 million next year and then a few million more in Switch's post-life phase especially assuming next gen will be backwards compatible so some next gen owners will pick it up as well.

Animal Crossing shipped 32.63 million from its March 20, 2020 launch to March 31, 2021.

I know Animal Crossing had the benefit of the pandemic effect but Wonder has a bigger install base+Mario movie effect so I don’t think it’s crazy at all to think it can outperform AC in a similar timeframe.

Assuming a November 2024 launch, Mario Wonder could be 35+ million by the time Switch 2 releases and 5+ million post-Switch 2 launch gets you 40+ million.

I think you are underestimating the Covid effect. AC was doing absolutely insane numbers that first year. Mario Wonder is not gonna have those sorts of numbers after the holidays.

AC was a cultural moment. Wonder may be an awesome Mario game coming after a super popular Mario movie on a 130+ million system, but it ain't a cultural moment and it ain't coming out during global lockdowns. Compare Wonder to other Mario games, comparing it to AC is simply folly. If you could just compare any huge game on Switch to AC then TotK would be looking at 40 million in its first 12 months since it's a way bigger game on a much bigger install base than AC was.

Mario Wonder is not Mario Kart and it doesn't have most of a decade to sell. It's not gonna be the cultural moment that AC was. It's not gonna have the game of the generation hype of TotK. We should be looking for it to pass Odyssey, but not a ton more than that. A year from now Mario Wonder is gonna be that cool 2D last gen Mario game while everyone will be crazy hyped up about the new next gen 3D Mario game having just launched or about to launch.