Prediction: Mario Wonder 50m+ LT

[zorg1000]

rapsuperstar31 said:

HyrulianScrolls said:

It’s borderline absurd to expect any less than 35m at this point… people realize NSMB on DS and Wii both sold close to that right? And that was without the critical acclaim of this, a massive worldwide movie sensation, and the “Switch effect” we all know is real.

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe has been on the top selling charts almost every week for the past 6.5 years.  It took 6 years for it to pass 50 million sales, and it's sold about 4 million copies last year to get to where it's at.  Mario Wonder is going to do a quick 20 million and slowly climb to that 30-35 million total sales.  If the Switch 2 comes out next year and for some reason isn't backwards compatible it has no chance at 50 million.  If the Switch 2 comes out next year, is backwards compatible and launches with a 3D Mario that is going to slow down future sales of Mario Wonder.  If the Switch 2 comes out next year, and releases a 4k full retail version called Super Mario Wonder +, the base Swtich version isn't going to sell 50 million.  There are too many variables we don't know yet, and it's not going to instantly sell 50 million day one it takes time.

Mario Kart was a launch window title which makes it a useless comparison. Let’s look at Animal Crossing.

launch-March 20, 2020

as of March 31, 2020-11.77 million

as of June 30, 2020-22.40 million

as of September 30, 2020-26.04 million

as of December 31, 2020-31.18 million

Animal Crossing did over 30 million in 9 months on a smaller install base, Mario Wonder isn’t going to  slowly climb to 30-35 million, it will do it before Switch 2 even comes out.