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Slownenberg on 22 October 2023
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zorg1000 said:
rapsuperstar31 said:

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe has been on the top selling charts almost every week for the past 6.5 years.  It took 6 years for it to pass 50 million sales, and it's sold about 4 million copies last year to get to where it's at.  Mario Wonder is going to do a quick 20 million and slowly climb to that 30-35 million total sales.  If the Switch 2 comes out next year and for some reason isn't backwards compatible it has no chance at 50 million.  If the Switch 2 comes out next year, is backwards compatible and launches with a 3D Mario that is going to slow down future sales of Mario Wonder.  If the Switch 2 comes out next year, and releases a 4k full retail version called Super Mario Wonder +, the base Swtich version isn't going to sell 50 million.  There are too many variables we don't know yet, and it's not going to instantly sell 50 million day one it takes time.

Mario Kart was a launch window title which makes it a useless comparison. Let’s look at Animal Crossing.

launch-March 20, 2020

as of March 31, 2020-11.77 million

as of June 30, 2020-22.40 million

as of September 30, 2020-26.04 million

as of December 31, 2020-31.18 million

Animal Crossing did over 30 million in 9 months on a smaller install base, Mario Wonder isn’t going to  slowly climb to 30-35 million, it will do it before Switch 2 even comes out.

Not sure why people are talking about AC as though that has anything to do with Wonder. AC was a unique moment. There is no game for which you can say oh well AC did this in 2020 so new game will do more. Doesn't work that way. A pandemic didn't just start with lockdowns this month with Mario Wonder becoming the game everyone is playing. Simply not comparable situations. AC selling 30 million in 9 months says absolutely nothing about what Wonder will be doing. Wonder will probably very quickly get to 20 million (like maybe this quarter), but then it'll likely be selling <2 million a quarter after that, and then next gen launches a year from now with almost certainly a new 3D Mario game and that'll be the Mario game everyone cares about at that point. Mario Wonder will probably be doing like 500k per quarter starting in 2025.

Will it hit 30 million lifetime? Most likely. Will it hit 35 million? Maaaaybe. Will it hit 30-35 million BEFORE the holiday season next year (I'm assuming next gen launches somewhere between sept and nov next year), nah.

It'd be cool if I was underestimating, but if I am it isn't likely to be by much. And please people stop saying AC did X so Wonder will do >X. Doesn't work that way.