Prediction: Mario Wonder 50m+ LT

[zorg1000]

Slownenberg said:

Geralt99 said:

Switch by the end of its life cycle will have sold over 150 million. It should easily do anywhere between 40 to 50 million lifetime.

hahaha EASILY do 40-50 million???!

lol what? Only two Switch games have managed (and will manage) to hit 40 million. Wonder is coming out with a year left in Switch's life, it won't hit 40 million at all, easy or hard.

30 million seems about right. 30 million is an insanely high number that probably only MK, AC, Smash, the two Zeldas, and Wonder will hit, no reason to say silly things like 50 million. It'll probably push around 20m this holiday season and I could see it adding another maybe ~7 million next year and then a few million more in Switch's post-life phase especially assuming next gen will be backwards compatible so some next gen owners will pick it up as well.

Animal Crossing shipped 32.63 million from its March 20, 2020 launch to March 31, 2021.

I know Animal Crossing had the benefit of the pandemic effect but Wonder has a bigger install base+Mario movie effect so I don’t think it’s crazy at all to think it can outperform AC in a similar timeframe.

Assuming a November 2024 launch, Mario Wonder could be 35+ million by the time Switch 2 releases and 5+ million post-Switch 2 launch gets you 40+ million.